USDJPY: Technical analysis/forecasts

USD/JPY INTRADAY: THE UPSIDE PREVAILS.
Pivot 123
Our Preference Long positions above 123 with targets @ 123.6 & 124 in extension.
Alternate Scenario Below 123 look for further downside with 122.6 & 122.35 as targets.
Comments The RSI lacks downward momentum.
S1 123
S2 122.6
S3 122.35
R1 123.6
R2 124
R3 124.4



USD/JPY INTRADAY: CAUTION.
Pivot 123.18 Our Preference Long positions above 123.18 with targets @ 123.75 & 124 in extension.
Alternate Scenario Below 123.18 look for further downside with 122.9 & 122.6 as targets.
Comments The RSI is mixed and calls for caution.
S1 123.18
S2 122.9
S3 122.6
R1 123.75
R2 124
R3 124.4


USD/JPY INTRADAY: UNDER PRESSURE.
Pivot 123.4
Our Preference Short positions below 123.4 with targets @ 122.6 & 122.35 in extension. Alternate Scenario Above 123.4 look for further upside with 123.75 & 124 as targets.
Comments As long as 123.4 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
S1 122.6
S2 122.35
S3 122.2
R1 123.4
R2 123.75
R3 124

USD FLAT DUE TO LACK OF TRADING INCENTIVES
The U.S. dollar was nearly unchanged against the yen and the euro during Asia trade Friday, as investors refrained from taking strong positions amid a lack of fresh incentives.

The dollar was at 122.87 yen around 0450 GMT after briefly hitting as high as Y123.06 in morning trade. That compared with Y122.86 late Thursday in New York.

A bout of dollar buying by Japanese importers and institutional investors ahead of a three-day weekend in Japan caused the dollar to strengthen briefly earlier.

But the U.S. currency was largely tracking weakness since earlier this week, as investors adjusted their dollar-long positions. With a lack of fresh trading cues, many investors are factoring in the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise short-term rates in December, but remaining skeptical about the pace of monetary tightening thereafter.

The U.S. currency was slightly stronger against the euro, which declined to $1.0719 midday from $1.0733 late Thursday. The euro was at Y131.68 from Y131.87.

“Today’s trading is almost driven by position adjustment,” said Daisaku Ueno, chief foreign-exchange strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley.

Investors aren’t taking positions in a positive manner now, said Mr. Ueno, but they will reach a “crucial point” in December, with U.S. jobs data due Dec. 4 and the Federal Open Market Committee scheduled to meet Dec. 15-16, said Mr. Ueno.

Yukio Ishizuki, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at Daiwa Securities, said the U.S.-Japan two-year bond yield gap suggests there is room for upside.

“It would not be a surprise to see [the dollar] stretch” beyond its June 5 high of Y125.86 ahead of the FOMC meeting, said Mr. Ishizuki.

In other currency trade, the Australian dollar was higher against the yen after hitting a one-month high of Y88.53 overnight amid broad dollar selling. The Australian dollar was at Y88.48 midday from Y88.36 after its upside was capped at Y88.62.

The WSJ Dollar Index, a measure of the dollar against a basket of major currencies, was up 0.04% at 90.06.


USD/JPY INTRADAY: UNDER PRESSURE.
Pivot 123.2
Our Preference Short positions below 123.2 with targets @ 122.6 & 122.35 in extension.
Alternate Scenario Above 123.2 look for further upside with 123.4 & 123.75 as targets.
Comments The RSI is mixed to bearish.
S1 122.6
S2 122.35
S3 122.2
R1 123.2
R2 123.4
R3 123.75


USD/JPY INTRADAY: TURNING UP.
Pivot 122.85
Our Preference Long positions above 122.85 with targets @ 123.4 & 123.55 in extension.
Alternate Scenario Below 122.85 look for further downside with 122.7 & 122.55 as targets.
Comments The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
S1 122.85
S2 122.7
S3 122.55
R1 123.4
R2 123.55
R3 123.75

[B]Short term bullish above 118.40. [/B]

The USD/JPY posted a shallow advance this Wednesday, surging to 118.37 during the Asian session. However, the currency pair has been consolidating for the most of the first half of the day within a tight range. Additionally, the USD/JPY has been meeting buying interest as it gets near the 118.00 level.

Technically speaking, the 1 hour chart illustrates that the price extended above its 100 SMA (~117.65), but stalled a little bit from the 200 SMA, with the immediate resistance at the 118.40 level. It can be seen from the same chart that the technical indicators held above their mid-lines. On the other hand, the Momentum indicator plunged. Meanwhile the RSI indicator maintained around 55.
When looking at the 4 hours chart, the price looks to be a lot below its moving averages, indicating that a longer term recovery will still be confirmed. But the technical indicators are regaining their bullish slopes well above their mid-lines. After a little bit of consolidation, additional gains are indicated. There is possibly some likelihood of a break above 118.40.