Hi guys
A noobie question. Yesterday close on this pair form a pin bar with 1.5400 as the resistance level. Took a sell at 50% retracement but it went north. As a noob, whats the reason it went up ? Any economic news ?
My assumption is that any answer you get to the question of “what is the reason it went up?” is simply an expression of someone’s imagination. In the last 15 days the exchange rate of EUR/AUD has stayed almost entirely in the range of just 2% away from 1.5500.
Some of the news that dropped in the last 48 hours includes:
U.S. Pending Home Sales were projected to rise to 1.5% month over month but fell 2.3%
German CPI (Prelim.) was projected at 0.1% month over month but came in at 0
US GDP Annualised (1st Est.) was projected to rise 1.6% quarter over quarter and came in at 1.5
US Initial Jobless Claims were projected to rise from 259,000 to 260,000 and they did
German Unemployment Rate (sa) was projected to remain the same at 6.4% and it did
German Unemployment Change was projected to be 3,000 but was -5,000
British House Prices (sa) were projected to fall from 0.5% month over month to 0.4 but rose to 0.6
New Zealand RBNZ - Cash Rate was projected to go down to 2.5% but remained at 2.75%
U.S. FOMC - Fed Funds Rate was projected at 0.25% and was actually 0.25%
German GFK Consumer Sentiment was projected to fall from 9.6 to 9.0 but only fell to 9.4
Australian CPI was projected at 0.6% quarter over quarter but was actually 0.5
I don’t see anything in there that would change my mind about the fundamental factors effecting the exchange rate of EUR/AUD
Check out this EUR/AUD chart:
This chart shows price data for this month but only shows the highs and lows. The candles are all the same color and the top and bottom of each candle only show the high and the low. They do not show the open and close. Notice how the price often covers and recovers the same territory. Yesterday’s prices did not cover territory that wasn’t already covered by the previous day. Personally I am skeptical that news had caused market participants to take action when the prices were the same yesterday as the day before.
May the forx be with you.
-Adrian
So in other word, EURAUD is ranging ? I still learning how to incoperate News and Price action, or fundamental and technical.
You will get a different opinion from everyone. But even if you look at purely technically defined analysis you can get different position criteria with different parameters. On the 28th the pair made a new 3 day high, that could be a long entry signal in a system. But on the 26th it made a new 46 day low, that could have been a short entry signal or a long exit signal in a technical system. And both of these systems could have been profitable. I trade a 4 week price channel system that got flat this pair on the 7th and has stayed that way since.
If you look at this weekly chart (also one that only shows highs and lows), it is clear that EUR/USD moved upward from a two year low in April to a two year high in August. In fact that was the highest it has been since 2012. And in the nine weeks since that August high four of them have gone to lows not seen since the rally up to that high. If we don’t see a new high for the week before the close of this session, this week’s high will be lower than the high of the week before the August high. So the trend from August to today on the weekly chart is down.
The key is to find a a profitable implementation of your philosophy that you can keep up with given your lifestyle. If news is your thing and you want it to be a major factor in your efforts then keep working on that. But understand that two traders can have completely opposite opinions about fundamentals or news or even technical systems and both can be profitable.
I think what matters is how your exit is linked to your entry and how that coupled with your position sizing exposes you to profits more so than losses. That is a lot to get your head wrapped around. It take a lot of time and consideration to see all the details in that. Van Tharp’s books get into that pretty deeply.
-Adrian
The primary trend of EUR/AUD is bearish on charts. In its 4 hourly chart, the pair is sustaining below the trend line and is consolidating at lower levels. Price is taking support above the 50 day SMA in 4 hourly chart in the pair. It is having an important resistance at the level of 1.795 and support at the level of 1.5165. If it breaks its support level and sustains below it then we can expect it to show further bearish movement in the pair.
STRATEGY: EUR/AUD is looking bearish on charts for next few trading session. One can go for sell on higher level strategy for this pair for intra day to mid term positions.