I was playing with my practice account, and was nicely up 32 pips, always exiting too early rather than letting the profits run so I was scalping 7-9 pips at a time. Then there was this trade which I was seriously wrong upon. Am I right in assuming the down bar next to the upward wick was a sign of strength, especially as they appeared together.
The widespread bar after your SECOND blue box is followed by a squat (narrower spread than previous bar with higher volumeā¦ not really VSA) but this cause the market to consolidate a bit. Most of the widespread bars down donāt have much follow through. And now we have a base at 1.4320ā¦ all reasons to GET ready for a long. You want the uptrend to start and wait for the pull back.
Yes. That was a serious sign to get out. You had already missed your opportunity for a short. Nothing on the 5m background suggests anything for a short really. I think the best opportunity that came all day was the last bar on your chart. Price closed on the previous 5m low with volume just about the way it looks on your chart. It was a perfect no supply. And if you look back around that same price, youāll see another No Suply (but in the wrong spot cuz it showed up after a downtrend).
Well, youāre right about that, after that bar, the price went up 70 pips.
The first arrow is your first sign of strength coming in (If you trade around the NY open). If that widespread bar contained selling, it surely would have continued down. Instead, it stalled at that price with volume pretty even. And look what happened as soon as it came back to that price. Like magic.
I should also mention. Never sell a shakeout and never buy an upthrust, thats just bad entry management.
Thanks for that, Iām looking at short term.
Today, again, I was up about 30 pips on the demo, (again exiting too early) and stumbled on this trade: and is still going up breaking the previous resistance. I would have thought that where |I marked would be a good place to short, but obviously wrong again.
I guess you would term this a shakeout, and I think that I should wait for the candles to close, being too impatient to trade.
Youāre basing your S/R on fib zones from like 10 five minute bars. Too in the weeds, IMO.
The one you entered on is an upthrust. The next was a shakeout. I hope thats where you got out. The trend is your friend. Since weeks open, weāve been heading up, personally, Iāve been looking for longs.
It also looks like youāre using the fib based on 5m swings. You should plot it on the 1hr.
As a new trader, you shouldnāt trade these so aggressively unless you have conducted a correct analysis of the background. The next bar after the upthrust should close down to confirm your short analysis.
Ah, thanks for that - for 5 minute trading I should be looking at the 1hr fib levels. I exited on my stop, but fortunately not real money, but its learning all the same.
Just wanted to make a post about some things, hopefully to get people on track. DISCIPLINE pays off more than anything. Donāt jump into the market and expect it to do what you want to do. Wait for the market to show you its pathā¦ it always does.
Always look to higher TFs to find the general trendā¦ If you trade the 1hr, look at the dailyā¦ If you trade the 15/5m, look at the 1hrā¦ Swim WITH the current.
I stay disciplined by only trading the NY open. 2 trades max, if they both lose, Iām out for the day. Iāve actually stopped trading, not because I was losing, just because I was over-trading. As far as VSA goes, be patient. For newbies, its best to trade just no supplys/no demands.
They might not always show up in a session, but they are almost always guaranteed winners (provided theres enough strength or weakness in the background).
We have been in a uptrend since weekās openā¦ so Iād only pay attention to signs of strength. Possible weakness came in, followed by stopping volume (volume equal to the bar that started the last moveā¦ this is confirmed stopping volume as the next bar is up. A break above yesterdayās high with strength in the background shouldāve gotten you in long.
Seeing lots of strengthā¦ THINK we might see 1.4550 todayā¦ might even blow right by it
That theory got flushed.
Only one obvious short today with the following indicators: shame I wasnāt around to take it.
Did you see the no demand?
(5m chart)
whatās your volume feed, Procast? ibfx volume gone flat today @.@, i donāt know what happen. Couldnāt make any trade.
MB Trading
You mean that I should be trading a reversal - ie on a ND and a show of weakness I should go short, and NS and show of strength should go long?
And thats exactly why you (I) never guess! 
