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67

Results.

For those who are interested and to provide complete transparency, please find here my monthly detailed report showing all my trades and results.

In short, I made 14 trades for a gain of 351 pips or 47.87 $ which is equivalent to 47% of the initial balance. I know that the gain was huge in percentage points but this was because I started small and profited from a rising of 3% in the pair during the month of October.

At the time of writing, I have an open position at 83.40 and waiting for the stochastics on the daily chart to leave the oversold level before starting a new campaign. Do you remember when I told that care must be taken when applying this grid system ? Here you see it in full effect.

Status.

After my first month of trading my system, I can say that Iā€™m not disappointed but rather more confident that I was on the first day.

Iā€™m now more aware of the risks that this strategy carries and Iā€™m prepared for that risks.
All calculations done, Iā€™m prepared to take positions all the way down for a draw-down of -12% from peak and certainly more, since I donā€™t take positions while stochastics are overbought. From there, I can still go to -25% from peak but with no more positions and adding 2k to balance and from there, I could go even to -48% from peak by adding 3k more to my account.

Iā€™m learning what the word Patience means, since the recent top of 83.40 itā€™s now 6 days I have not traded. This is why I started to think on how to play the draw-downs with the same strategy or with some derivations on it to play it in reverse mode. I have some ideas but need some time to maturate them before disclosing to public. If you have some thoughts on that, you are welcome in the discussion.

Letā€™s start the second month of life of this system and see the results.
BT

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1 Like
68

I like this kind of strategies!

I have been testing some things similar to this one but not a success yet.

Actually, some time ago i made a strategy where the same thing was happening, there is an open order where it could last opened very long. But did you figure out how you can solve this?

I mean, if you have that current order at 83.40 and it has been there for 6 days we should try to think how to avoid that, not just because of the drawdown (which iā€™m ok because there is no going to be a margin call is you use a good leverage) but in addition you are now 6 days stuck without trading.

Regards!

1 Like
69

Hi reinaldo,

I cannot solve it ! I mean, it has to solve itself eh?

You are right, I could hold that position for a long time but in the same time, this position pays me positive interest, so as days, weeks and months passes, its losses decreases until the day where the swap - its current loss become positive and I can close that position.

Also, itā€™s important to clarify, that Iā€™m now not stuck because of that position. Iā€™m on the sidelines to see what happens on next days and this is because my daily stochastic is overbought and Iā€™m trying to guess if we are near a top or not, nothing else.

If the trend resumes, I will continue to buy as per my plan. It it reverses, then I will wait for the stochastics at least to go to the mid (50) level or more and only then, resume my buying.

Patience is key with this strategy and care too, you cannot just put the grid blindly on the chart and trade it, sometimes there is need to just watch and wait to see what the price wants to do and finally act accordingly.

Regards.

70

Yeah, youā€™re rightā€¦ I can see what you mean.

Wellā€¦ I did imagine you would make some other tradings even when you have an opened one. The thing is that opened trade the more it drawdowns the less margin available you would have. I know there is no problem with the margin call, what i meant is you should then decrease the amount of buy levels because if you not, you would be using more leverage.

I know you can deposit more money, but the idea is to try to open and close earning pips ā€œvery oftenā€.

At least and I have to say, I didnā€™t consider the positive swap. Maybe, it could be a good money while you have that ā€œlosingā€ position, but we have to calculate the ratio of how much we would earn because of the positive swap and how much we would have to keep lock as a margin of that trade.

I mean, I know just taking the positive swap for itself it is a good thing. But I still hope to find a strategy where you can close that top position quickly.

Maybe itā€™s not that bad, i donā€™t know. I think I am going to deep a little bit more by doing some math.

Regards!

71

Thanks for your very good input reinaldo.

ā€¦ i meant is you should then decrease the amount of buy levels because if you not, you would be using more leverage.

Yes, leverage increases as your equity decreases because of that open position, thatā€™s right and off course we cannot use an infinite number of levels as we donā€™t have an infinite amount of cash in our balance.

I mean, I know just taking the positive swap for itself it is a good thingā€¦

Swap is good money for sure and also an important aspect of this strategy. During those periods where you stay aside, with that last losing position open, you feel like being paid for waiting which is psychologically interesting. The first days you get cents, after a week or two they become dollars and after several weeks it becomes really significant and by that time you have already begun to trading again.

ā€¦ But I still hope to find a strategy where you can close that top position quickly.

Not easy to do. The problem is that you never know that you are at the top. Take my todayā€™s situation: Three days ago, I thought that I had reached the top with my 83.40 position and today it has come back to that level. I still donā€™t know if the trend will resume or not but if I had close my position I would have taken a loss for nothing. You see ? Itā€™s really difficult.

I donā€™t want to bet that Iā€™m at the top or not, I prefer to leave that position there as long as it doesnā€™t hurt me too much, and let time work for me.

Again, thank you for your post.
Regards.

72

What happens when the JPY has a higher interest rate than NZD or AUD and you still have losers open? Those losers that once earned positive swap will begin to bleed. This system looks dangerous. :frowning:

73

JPY is not likely to have higher interest rate than NZD nor AUD before a while.
Furthermore, JPY is well know for having a very low interest rate :wink:

74

KingKaivar,

Even if you have already been answered by zeuhl, I would like to add that no system or rule is written in stone for ever and specially not here. Each one has to adapt them to itā€™s trading style and the day that JPY has higher interest rates than NZD or AUD, well, we could just inverse the orders, I mean selling instead of buying.

Anyway, I think, that day is really far from today. Australia has a long history of high interest rates (see image below), in fact, they are even at an historical low now because of this global crisis we are living today. That means that as soon as the global economy recovers, the interest rates should increase again to avoid too much inflation which is the primary goal of the RBA.


75

As suggested by yunny1 on post 24 I finally setup a myfxbook account.

Here is the link to it.
100$ T System | Myfxbook

Kind regards.

76

It will be interesting. Good luck!

77

Yes, it will be. Thanks.

78

Hello everyone,

Iā€™m back to you to talk about a new idea on how to manage (if possible) the down trends.

After a long thinking about it, I came to the idea of a new thing, at least for me and I called it a Time Trade. You will understand later why. I donā€™t know if itā€™s my invention or somebody has already done that elsewhere but anyway I will try to explain to you how I came to it, how it works and the rules I set around it.

The goal being to neutralize the opened danglers and if possible profiting also of down trends but in a little more conservative way.
Beware that this is again a non conventional way of trading and remember that Iā€™m doing some things a little out of the box here ā€¦

The Time Trade

The problem was about how to get something out of the down trends and also neutralize for some time those danglers that will inevitably remain at a previous top and while waiting for the next uptrend.

So I studied the charts and looking back I clearly saw the cycles or waves making the up and down trends and I calculated their duration and their value in percentage points from top and bottoms. This is of course only valid for AUDJPY pair as I only trade this pair. I also donā€™t know if this will work in the long run but itā€™s the best I have found for now and I want to give it a try.

My conclusion is that after a certain number of days a trend reverses and a new trend begins again for a certain number of days. Well, nothing new hereā€¦ With this, I donā€™t pretend to predict the perfect timing as there is some waves that will last longer than others, I just want to increase the probabilities of recognizing a new trend just after it has started.

From what I have observed, the average duration of a trend is 24 days with different increases and decreases in price of 5%, 10% or even 15%, so as per this observation, if you observe a trend for 5 days and there is a retracement of say 0.8% from last top, we can say that there is a high probability for the original trend to resume, I mean, that retracement is not a new trend.

If instead, you have been riding a trend for 28 days and there is now a retracement of 1.5% or more from last top, itā€™s highly probable that a new trend has begun and that we should play the reverse side.

In my two previous statements, I would like to emphasize the word ā€œprobabilityā€, as nobody can predict the future, from time to time we will be wrong and we have to live with that and this is why I set some rules around this ā€œTime Tradeā€

Ok, you are asking why call it ā€œTime Tradeā€ and how it works and what are the rules around itā€¦

Well, I will try to explain it clearly with the help of a chart illustrating a live trade.

Initial situation: you have just gone through an up trend for more than 20-24 days, have an order open at the top of it. Now the price has retraced more than 1.5%, the daily stochastics is overbought and pointing to the south. So we assume that we are on the next down wave that should last, we hope, for 20 days or more.

Rule for entry: Wait for this (maybe) new trend to go beyond 1.5% or more from top. On the 4h chart wait for a retracement, when you feel that the retracement is over, enter a trade of the same size of your open danglers, this will neutralize them.

Rule for Stop loss: We have to be willing to lose, say 10% to 20% (up to you) of what we earned on our previous trend. think about this as an insurance contract. If things turn against us, and are stopped out we donā€™t try again and revert back to original system and wait for the daily stochastics to be oversold and the corresponding days before starting buying again. So this is a one shot trade.

Rule for take profit: Now you will know why I call it a Time Trade. The idea is to not set a price target but instead a time target ! So, even if price goes in our direction, we keep the stop loss as defined until we have reached 5 days or 100 pips in profit. Then, we can move it to break-even. From that point, we are insured for the days to come at no cost! Better, after 10 days, we could also ensure some profit and after reaching a 75% of our time target of 20-24 days, we could set a trailing stop of say 50 pips or anything else, you are free to decideā€¦

The idea is to try to reach our time target while we see the daily stochastics coming to the oversold levels.

Have a look at the chart belowā€¦
Kind regards.

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1 Like
80

Hello Broketrader,

What happened? Itā€™s been more than a month that youā€™ve not posted anythingā€¦howā€™s your system doing?

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Hi Actuary,

It happened that when I thought that a new down trend was just beginning, I started to reverse my positions and then the uptrend just resumed. Bad guy this AUDJPY boy !

I have been adding shorts all the way up but not in an orderly manner I have to admit and all my trades are losing right now.

Iā€™m just waiting for the next down trend while trying to learn from my trades.

82

what broker you using?

83

What about your margin ?
Which percentage used ?

84

mmb91: Markets.com

zeuhl50:
I have been adding to my account which is now 1,6K.
I did know that I could not trade with 100$ for ever.

What do you mean by percentage used ?
I try to keep 200% margin reserve for the night and when the price goes against me I monitor it closely when it reaches 75% and add to account when its at 50%. This is a bit aggressive and will surely take more room if my balance continues to growā€¦

85

I did know that I could not trade with 100$ for ever.

I would not worry about that ,you will be trading with 100 again soon enough Looking at your myfxbook

This idiot has banned me from thread for stating the obvious.He is a complete and utter retardand cant trade for ****

86

Forex trader receives the $100 no deposit bonus and starts trading. 3 weeks later customer has completed enough trades to collect the 50 bonus points and his profit is equal to $500. $100 is removed from the account. $500 remains as the customerā€™s profit. The trader needs to deposit another $500 of his own funds into the account and complete 25 full lots worth of trades. (500/20= 25 lots) . Once this trading challenge is completed, any funds can be withdrawn from the account.

87

link isnt working