16 candles in the '58 edsel'

They’ve certainly been busy facing the wrong way again this week!

I’m sure as I do, you lads cast an eye over the stats each day, but i’ve now gotten into the habit of ‘double filtering’ the candidates with the weightings & it occasionally throws up big, colourful anomalies. Obviously they’re not in abundance every week & the filter needs to be employed to match them up, but this week has thrown up more than its fair share.

A nice top-up to stick on the A list especially when pickings are thin during the phases when currencies rotate from one bias to another.

AUDNZD finally rolled over monday off the 1.08 double weekly high barrier & each (NY) closing session up to y’day recorded increased long weightings culminating in a 91% long order bias.

The other midweek [U]filtered[/U] candidates of note were;
GBPCHF – a strong short play, largest long weighting into wed (NY) close @88.3%

GBPCAD – a strong short play, largest long weighting into wed European open @80.7% & again y’day into the (NY) close @81.5%

Dow – a strong long play, largest short weighting into wed open @ 81.6%, just before breaking out through Tuesday’s highs.

GBPNZD – short play, largest long weighting into thursday’s european lunchtime @78.3%

Oh there’s always a silver lining in those heavy fluffy clouds young man!

They’re a permanent scab on the skin of these forums & associated websites, but they’re also very good for business. As with most things money related, the few savvy guys quickly suss them out & give them a wide berth, leaving the usual fodder to swell the brokers & winning punters coffers.

You’d have thought the regularity in which they appear, most participants would be wise to it but in our experience that isn’t often the case.

The same folk tend to fall for the sizzle sellers multiple times, which is even better for business. Mixed in amongst the newcomers are also long standing members with high visibility profiles who often develop a following on forums in their own right. The knock-on effect being those vulnerable newcomers are then pretty relaxed about putting all their eggs in their advice baskets if a high profile member is bigging up a particular guru, strategy, course or seminar etc.

There are all sorts of shenanigans played out in these places on a daily basis.
Given the extremely high foot flow these joints generate, they’re quite lucrative hunting grounds for any number of agenda’s.

It’s all good fun.

Within the (retail) space in which you’re operating, that view is spot on & the correct tactic to deploy, but that’s not to say the types of strategies you’re referring to such as top & bottom reversal plays, round number/figure bounces & long range highs & lows aren’t workable or financially lucrative, just not a profitable option in the hands of your typical retail punter.

Those types of tactics are operated relatively successfully in the institutional space via HFT algos.
They can very quickly pyramid up & stack large sized orders across small moves multiple times per session, even spreading that operation throughout tiered products, an option well out of the realms of the typical non-automated retailer. It’s why you guys have been strongly advised to adopt the tactic & approach presented & been equally strongly advised to give the above a wide berth.

Playing to your strengths based on the environment you’re operating under is absolutely key if you wish to live long & prosper in this game.

Your man sketcher is beginning to see why we actively discouraged you fella’s from pursuing the above & also witnesing the opportunities & accompanying rewards that game play can return when employed correctly, but of course the machines will only do what the programmers tell them to, therefore you still need to pick your battles & know when to switch products & also hit the off switch.

I’ve gradually been reading this thread over the last week or so and just wanted to thank those who’ve been contributing to it and keeping it going for so long. There’s a great deal of value and help here. (I’m a bit surprised it’s in this part of the forum.)

Thank you, all.

It’s parked here because there’s a mix of topics within the content & this little corner kind of seemed chilled & not too starchy. Folks will find it if they need to. :wink:

Glad you like it, hope one or two elements add some zip to whatever you’re using.

Role call please. How many of you will still be contributing here, after the change? I have a quick update. Uggggg follow the rules you set for yourself!!! I was doing pretty good, then got greedy, then allowed a wider birth on entry, then got reminded how stupid I was being. But on a side note, I am extremely happy that it happened again. It didn’t cost me a whole ton, and directed my focus to what I am doing right. I am now back on the right track. (At least I think I am)

didn’t even realise they’d been a change until I logged in just now.
I guess one of us will address anything that’s posted once we get an alert, not sure why a change of forum graphics would deter responses?!

anyway, you need to ask yourself how come you’re still slipping up so easily on these basic set up criteria.

if you’ve tightened up on your prep, entry & exit procedures & recognise when & why your higher probability game plays are unfolding, then at this stage of your activity these slips shouldn’t be occurring should they?

sounds like a lot of these situations are mental or confidence barriers.

Thanks soultrain. Actually, I simply applied my “entry” criteria on an unfamiliar time frame. I used my … How do I say it… I used my view and structure look from an intraday perspective and tried to apply it on an intramonth perspective. It didn’t work. :nerd_face:

It didn’t work, because it completely lacked utilizing the information that applies to current market action. Oye.

It’s not so much it didn’t or doesn’t work more that it requires different objectives & a revised outlook.

For one, you’re going to require extremely deep pockets or be restricted to betting pennies if you’re using those kinds of time horizons. The pullbacks alone could stretch several handles deep.

Even locating traditional stop loss areas betting breakouts via those timeframes could prove challenging if you’re working off a small account as they’ll often necessitate at least a couple of handles worth of placement. You certainly won’t have too many alternative risk options at your disposal utilising that tactic working on a budget.

It might be an objective to work towards when you possess adequate funding & are comfortable with the large potential drawdowns associated with that type of game play, but it’ll prove very challenging psychologically attempting it operating a tight or low financial stake.

Successful exponents of that particular style & time horizon are always very well capitalised, mainly because they diversify.

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Thanks Saul, yes, as I watched it unfold, it became very clear that the methodology and thought process didn’t jive. At least not with my current short term view.

:grinning:. It was a nice ride. So I do need to ask, was/is there an identifiable difference between yesterday and today? See I did try yesterday as well. I got in at 86.70, and it was ok, but didn’t take off.
Is that an I’ll advised trade?

Thank you.

I am putting the term ’ pullback continuation shift ’ into my note book. :sunglasses:

Aud/nzd which I was dumb and got in earlier than I should have and took a loss,. I moved my attention to eur/nzd and made some very nice pips. Less is more$$.

You’re a brave man shorting that EURNZD against the background of a strong up-trend on the daily - glad it worked out for you.

I think he’s punting the other way on eur/nzd Matt, as per stakz comment re; shorting kiwi v/s euro, sterling, aud or cad (meaning long eur/nzd).

At least I assume & hope he is if he’s following the theme & flow of this particular approach.

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Yes. I was long. Sorry I did not specify that. The pair dipped just below last week’s low, as you stated with a background supporting a long entry. I used last week’s low as my “guide”.

If you’re not already using them exclusively as your barometer/guide, I’m sure you’ll soon begin to realise & witness their effectiveness & consistency, particularly when utilising this type of approach.

I used to be traditional s&r devotee before eventually wising up & taking the leap of faith across to session levels & big figures as my only & primary reference points when betting background qualifying momentum plays.

I admit I hummed & harred for a while about maybe merging the two reference options but regular interaction including some live meet ups with 2 long standing punters of Dan & Billy’s put my mind at rest & convinced me otherwise.

I know these guys have continually banged the exclusive session/round number drum from the get go, but when you can measure the progress in your own results & see the evidence from experienced campaigners using similar activity, it does wonders for the confidence & confirms the genuineness & integrity of their advice.

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Hahaha, it’s a gnarly old fossil for sure but when it ticks all the necessary set up boxes, which it did this week, then it qualifies as an A lister. If you nibbled on it after it danced with & left last week’s highs (& the 1.30 figure) in its rear view mirror on Tuesday then good for you!

Another hop & skip & it’ll register fresh yearly highs.
At over 150% of weekly range, it’s also vying for the top (major) performer slot with USDCAD this week too.

[quote=“odds_on, post:1195, topic:71504”]If you nibbled on it after it danced with & left last week’s highs (& the 1.30 figure) in its rear view mirror on Tuesday then good for you!
Another hop & skip & it’ll register fresh yearly highs.[/quote]
Yeah there have been one or two significant violations recently.

Various aussie & canadian dollar pairings + euro & a couple sterling candidates are either threatening or have broken out to fresh yearly highs/lows. Gold especially has impressed since busting through the 2nd quarter dual yearly top at 1295 towards the end of last month.

Not so much as a sniff of a prior weekly low violation on that instrument since early july either.
Talk about a vote of confidence! :slight_smile:

Just a question, maybe a silly one, but anyway, what do you consider as a weekly opening price? is it the first price on Sunday at the Fx market re-opening or the London shift starting time?