nzdchf – week ending dec 8 @ 0.6800 shorts were loaded 79.3%, increasing to 84.6% on Dec 11 as prices broke out beyond prior weekly highs @0.6820. 2 days later @06900 short exposure once again pierced the +80% region with prices maintaining higher lows into the week’s close.
nzdjpy – week ending Dec 8 shorts increased steadily through 70% even as it pushed into the early week high’s @77.70 despite strong 77.0 round number support at the current week’s lows. They pushed higher through 75% onto & beyond @78.0 on the 11th.
nzdcad - registered heaviest short bias at 88.0 into week ending Dec 8. At that juncture it was still comfortably holding a higher low momentum into that round number. It dipped back below 70% as business opened a fresh week on Dec 11 only to strongly increase again beyond 80% up at 89.0 later that day.
Not surprisingly, the sentiment flipped to longs last week on the approach to the big 90.0 round number as prices dipped on the pullback, only for that sentiment to flip back as late comers buyer’s remorse set in.
Shorts held sway @82% on the 14th & 15th as prices once again moved back into dominant long momentum mode back towards the 90.0 level into last week’s close.
These scenarios are typical, especially on spotlight instruments that make the A list, which to be honest are the only occasions this data gets utilised to assist with timing in conjunction with the other set up criteria.
Cheers for that wyntac.
I’ve received an assortment of data back from various sources including major retail shops & the retail side isn’t coming even close to some of those percentages at those levels. It’s clearly because there’s a smaller percentage of clientele betting those pairs or regional currencies.
The larger tiered broker numbers in comparison are much closer for obvious reasons, but still on the light side. Again, they’re from individual sources so will be dependent on the percentage of clientele betting those pairs/instruments at that time for that particular liquidity provider.
I’m assuming then you guys are receiving a collective from the higher tiered sources & somehow combining a larger data set to offer a much clearer & accurate picture of how these levels are being traded & from which side.
It’s actually a bit of both.
If you’re only punting a few quid for beer & holiday money then a proxy from one of the major retail shops will suffice. Most of them provide weightings data these days if you’re running a live a/c. When all said & done at that level you’re only looking to get a general feel for the mood.
But when you’re upping the ante with your sizing & you’re seeking more confirmation at specific price levels, then it stands to reason you’re going to require much more accuracy & relevance to that data, which the higher tiered price suppliers are able to provide.
It’s collected & processed from both retail & non-retail & run side by side as a separate program, accessed as & when required to offer a clearer snap shot of where the biases are & how strong a position the individual wants to take based on the objective at outset. Be it an intraday punt or a longer-term gamble.
At any one time they can see where the brunt of retail is sitting & get a clearer feel of where the majority of higher tiered punters are at. If they’re both leaning heavily on one side (because institutional aren’t always right by a long shot), they can wait till their usual triggers begin unwinding & gear up on size accordingly. Either that, or dial in a larger pyramid stake if the profit objective is in reasonably close proximity. The aim of utilising anything like this is to offer choice & flexibility.
It can work both ways don’t forget. You can use it to bat away from key session or round number levels via the shorter range set up sketcher explained in his post higher up, just as well as it can be applied to the usual directional momentum set up.
With the right, or should I say, more relevant information to hand, it becomes a man-for-all-seasons kind of deal.
If someone could only view the markets once a day, for example those who commute to work, would your advice be to apply the framework but use higher timescales (weekly & daily vs 1h/5m for example) or do you feel that such an approach is beyond the sweetspot for taking advantage of market momentum?
You can switch the framework & structure up & down the scale however you want Matt.
That’s the deal that was originally presented, & price flows will continue to offer up those cyclical behaviour traits because a lot of it revolves around crowd participation & taking advantage of the typical & repeatable patterns it continually offers.
You’ll struggle legging into the types of momentum moves usually referred to in the thread using the key & prior session/day level breaks & more so pullback triggers, if you’re only dialling in once a day. Your whole game plan will need to be adjusted accordingly based on where & how you decide to enter & what type of risk profile you’re looking to employ.
It’s no secret the activity levels will be much higher & offer a wider selection of betting opportunities when actively following the filtered candidates because it’s geared toward capturing the pops in short-to-medium term directional momentum plays as explained in the content.
How deep your pockets are will dictate how spicy your risk profile & projected profit outlook is. You’ll need to absorb your fair share of stop-starts, but when you do manage to leg into & catch a decent run those frustrating false starts should offer good pay-back.
It’s a whole different mental game when you begin switching up your time horizons!
I really like this stuff a lot. Got steered to the thread middle of last year from mentions in Merle Fleming’s room & Meisler’s site & have been looking in ever since.
At the time i was in the process of revisiting fx spot & futures, looking to merge bits & pieces from a couple of set ups i’d used previously into 1 strategy of which round numbers & time sessions strongly featured, hence the nod to your work.
The 1 & 3 month range numbers have proved very consistent with prioritizing & managing moves to daily & particularly weekly wraps on the forex, even during subdued activity periods.
Of the 6 top filtered pairs tracked last week, 5 of them closed within 1% of their weekly ranges & 4 of them settled into round numbers. It’s not an uncommon observation by any stretch, even in variable volatility conditions, so it’s high time i stepped forward to thank you guys for sharing these simple, but efficient set up features & benefits.
Considering it’s a relatively lightweight strategy it’s returning some pretty heavyweight results. One thing i particularly liked was how it flowed seamlessly from sim to live minus any order execution surprises or disappointments. I expected fills to cause a few hiccups especially on some of the less liquid pairings, but i’ve experienced very few issues at all.
Appreciating & really enjoying the content. One or two of the videos aren’t too shabby either
Yen (barring usdjpy) is the clear front runner again this week highlighting slides off round numbers & slipping previous weekly lows against pound, euro & aussie. All 3 have covered best part of full weekly ranges into their fresh weeks lows & Canadian & New Zealand Dollars have garnered support at next level round numbers, having also booked 100% of range.
I’ve got audusd, usdcad, usdchf & gold on the best-of-the-rest list all for similar reasons really, slipping or pushing through previous weekly levels or round number volumes.
I’ve not had a whole bunch of time this week but did briefly run the rule over some of my my stocks groups which popped a few candidates up onto the radar for closer inspection.
not really a lot else to say other than welcome & congratulations for picking up the sticks & beating out a rhythm
identify
filter
execute
manage
wake up tomorrow morning or a morning 3 years down the line & that sequence, format & the tools will have you up & at em within a half hour without knowing what’s driving, influencing or dictating.
[quote=“sylvanbirch, post:1255, topic:71504”]…of which round numbers & time sessions strongly featured, hence the nod to your work.
The 1 & 3 month range numbers have proved very consistent with prioritizing & managing moves to daily & particularly weekly wraps on the forex, even during subdued activity periods.[/quote]
& just before all 3 slid through those prior weekly low bases yesterday, the retail positioning numbers peaked at strong reversal (long) activity with EURJPY tacking on the largest increase of the 3 in bullish weighting @81.6% on tuesday as it backed off 132.0
Don’t overlook the positional weightings. They blend really well with the session & level tools when looking to time either fresh or pyramid entries into pullback & breakout continuation moves.
Whenever the crowd is beginning to bet heavily one-way in previously strong or established cycle legs you know the odds are continuing to lean your way & and as soon as their tiered stops begin dissolving - which usually sit underneath those lows or atop the highs - the momentum generally kicks a little further along the line. But I imagine that’s a scenario you’re already aware of if you’ve been observing as long as you say.
Absolutely not. I’m aggregating data from 3 of the larger retail brokers which has been giving me a half decent look at the biases up to press. I noticed a heavy lean towards longs on gbpjpy during monday & tuesday where they were betting for an upside push through 150.0
I was a little late on that short to be honest, picking it up as it breached last week’s lows. The better odds was the short through monday & tuesday’s lows through 149, but there you go.
usdcad was another big alert as shorts began building late last week, increasing monday off 1.27 & again on tuesday on the approach back, even though it printed a higher low. Those stops certainly got hammered during the New York afternoon session
As you say, it’s a pretty cool indicator when used in conjunction with flows & cycles & particularly round numbers, where most of the retail stops are usually housed. That cad bet is even more appetizing given the vicinity of the Q4 2017 highs.
Repetition & familiarity will quickly iron that out. The more you observe these scenarios setting up the more efficient & effective your decision making will be. At least you’re already spotting them, which is a great sign. I did exactly the same when embracing the format, as did corpellan & the other guys who adopted it.
Because it’s a constant rinse & repeat process with the same background/foreground & trigger routine you’ll find you’re spending most of your time fine tuning the identification & filtering elements to increase the efficiency & probability factor at the execution & management end. If you put quality in at the beginning of the process you’re far likelier to experience consistently higher results at the sharp end.
I used to start off with anything up to 8 or 9 candidates on my A list grid on a Monday (excluding stocks), but the watch list gradually reduced down to a core 3 or 4 higher quality performers. Sure, they’ll be periods when one or two on the B list will outperform the higher ranked candidates, but that’s life & it’s not as though you’re going to struggle for set ups operating this type of game play.
Thanks sketcher. Yeah i’m not stressing over it, just slapping myself a little for missing the obvious. It’s not like it’s not mentioned enough throughout the content.
The brokers i use don’t have metatrader as an option & i’ve never used it, but i do quite like the layout & visuals. There were some charts here with the range percentages, 00 horizontals & daily/weekly opens plotted. Are they part of their custom add ons?
The verticals are a standard inclusion. The rest are a pick n mix package available as a download from one of tess & jjay’s software guys. They can code & load anything you want onto any chart package of your choosing. It’s not MT exclusive. My brokers don’t offer it either so I just use it for visuals. I also prefer the layout & versatility of it.
You don’t have enough posts to pm so if you want to configure anything & are still an active subscriber in Merle’s room hit up Sara H (if she’s still one of the moderators?) & ask her to send your details to tessa/jay. You can discuss your requirements with them. No charge/no fee.
