[B]Rick Rosas[/B]
[B]Sept 1949 - Nov 2014[/B]
This thread is so helpful, thanks to everyone whoâs giving advice & guidance.
I took the EURJPY breakout trade you mention above this morning Thalia -
At the moment Iâm still solely using the Captainâs breakout entry, but Iâve started noticing & looking out for those stochastic pullbacks and can see they might offer a bit better risk/reward but Iâll carry on observing for a little while.
What would you think about the 4 Iâm looking at at the minute? Iâm a bit wary of the correlation between them though, would you maybe halve your positions on them?
I was curious about something Sean P mentioned a few posts ago -
The zonal S&R was scrubbed completely from the manual templates a few years back.
The only survivor of the model presented in those threads is the consistently reliable session (day/week/month/quarter etc high-low) levels, the directional aspect & the average day & week range percentages.
After reading some other threads, it struck me that S/R zones were used a lot in future targets/zones of future interest â I wonder how targets are being looked for now? Are they purely based on the ADR levels, or just the previous Monthly/Weekly/Day levels for targets?
And just by way of thanks, hope this fits with your jukebox, one of my favourite guitar players of all time, Peter Green -
all of them are valid bets in their own right kechel.
you generally find that if a theme or particular market driver is influencing momentum youâll witness a directional shift across several currencies or candidates, particularly if that theme is a strong risk on/risk off influence.
if you feel slightly uncomfortable with your total exposure betting correlated candidates then either filter out the strongest based on what you currently use or reduce bet sizing to fit a more manageable & less stressful overall position.
unfortunately, thatâs a decision only you can make.
sean was replying to a specific question related to the manual templates they currently operate, which will obviously be tailored & engineered to suit their precise objectives & those of their clients.
yours however will be designed differently to reflect your own personal aims & objectives & if that includes the use of S&R so be it.
support & resistance zones no longer offered them value or the desired success ratios they previously enjoyed because the environment & style to which they were applied changed tack & they needed to readjust their exposure & objectives to suit that change.
but without knowing how or why they operate in the specific areas they do, itâs impossible to deduce why they decided to drop S&R or any other technical observational tool & i seriously doubt theyâll reveal that on a public forum.
whatâs more revealing however, is what theyâre suggesting or encouraging folk concentrate on [B]now[/B] or more to the point, what they [B]donât[/B] waste their time & effort focusing on 
the type of directional momentum which 3 Ducks (& this template here) is aligned to can be managed in a number of different ways without the need to observe zonal S&R, including;
trailing profit stops
average day & week percentages
prior daily/weekly/monthly high-lows
scaling & pyramiding etc.
again, the finishing touches relating to risk, style & objectives will reflect the individuals preferences, & those will differ from one person to another.
our advice has always been to experiment with what feels right, ensure it stands up to scrutiny & then proceed with it until it tells you otherwise.
but in any eventuality for gods sake keep it as basic & uncluttered as you possibly can â [B]thatâs[/B] the real key!
When I read your posts guys itâs like finding the Golden Ticket in a Willy Wonka chocolate bar.
Thank you all for taking the time to share and guide folks like me especially Tess and Jocelyn. (Big fan of TT threads)
Well, if encouraging folks to stop wasting their precious time ploughing through unecessarily complex nonsense whilst focusing on the simple, common sense stuff enables them/you to steer a less stressful route then itâs worthwhile huh? 
If you also manage to put a few dollars in your pocket itâs even better!
After nearly one full month - accnt is a positive balance - even with all the overtrading
I feel I am still in âpracticeâ mode but learning everyday - this months big take away is be more picky - be more patient.
Had I quit after 1 trade this month - Iâd have been better off. And I found myself for the first and only time today - forcing an entry - this cost me a couple percentage points - - and but - the good news, I did recognize it âwhileâ it was happening. Unfortunately I still traded. . . I will be attempting to change this too - part of the patience concept.
THANKS to all who are directing and re-directing me. Iâm looking forward to next month.
Ok thanks dudes, good to know cause it was sending me crazy looking for cluesâŚ
1 more thing, can you elaborate on this? âthe average daily/weekly range percentages & the prior session/day/week/month etc high-low levelsâ
I think I know but just want to be certainâŚthanks guys
When they mention paying attention to a pairs average daily & weekly range theyâre referring to the approximate movement each pair travels on itâs daily or weekly journey from the high to the low & vice versa.
More extensive explanations about the daily & weekly ranges + the session high & low levels are covered in the Technical Templates threads which go back to early 2007, but basically if you havenât got access to a daily range programme they advise using ATR configured to 22 on a daily chart which represents the amount of trading days in a typical month & the 12 ATR on your weekly chart which is representative of 3 months worth of price data.
Iâve used different permutations in testing & to be honest those 2 numbers are as good as anything else Iâve observed. At the end of the day, theyâre simply a guide for gauging entry & exit.
The session, day, week & month highs & lows are just that. They represent the highest & lowest levels in which price reached during the period youâre observing.
Whenever theyâre moving in trend mode these levels will come under close inspection & can offer a very good guide of continued momentum. Theyâre used as markers by a lot of traders & theyâre also areas on the technical chart where stops & resting orders tend to accumulate.
Well worth observing in my opinion.
Looking to the week ahead, the EURO pairs still seem to be well set-
How would you go about filtering out the strongest of that bunch?
Would I be right to now only focus on looking for the cleanest-looking entries on the 5m, with a decent potential left in the ADR at the time of entry?
but in any eventuality for gods sake keep it as basic & uncluttered as you possibly can â thatâs the real key!
Can the aspect of the currency driver influences be considered with the same approach?
My idea this week for example-
There seems to be big market drivers for the AUD (Interest Rates, Tue), GBP (Election, Thu) & USD (NFP, Fri). So look for entries there up to those events, then re-assess again after the event.
The Yen doesnât seem to have any major direct news due this week, so as long as one eye is kept on Risk appetite changes, the EURJPY seems a good bet still, & continuing positive economic growth forecasts for the Euro on Tuesday could fuel all these moves further forward.
Am I in the right area here, or missing something from this side of things?
Kechel,
Here is a quick little filtering method Andy suggested in the 3-ducks thread back on March 2nd 2010, post number #155.
Link to post #155 http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/6580-3-ducks-trading-system-51.html#post174994
hope this helps.
The market structure on those Euro pairs has broken down over the last couple of days (Iâm not really too sure of the market catalyst behind it, maybe profit-taking on the previous weekâs big moves)-
I wonder how quickly would you move to a position of selling the Euro now, if at all (or would you already be selling)?
Taking the EURUSD for example, it is already printing Lower Lows & Lower Highs (1h chart below) â would you already be primed for looking for short entries (if you were to be using the 1h as the primary timeframe, 5m as secondary)?
Or would you be looking for more confirmation, whether that be news drivers or purely technical?
Edit. The 3 Ducks would put you in a âwait-and-seeâ mode, as the 4h is still bullish.
Which specific approach are you aligning yourself with?
Are you siding strictly with the 3 Ducks filtering process, or are you configuring your own filtering rules based on your individual risk profile & specific objectives?
Itâs not about how anyone else would proceed, only what [B]you[/B] have determined to be the right course of action based on your own objectives.
You have to appreciate kechel that everyone will have very different approaches, risk appetites & objectives, even though they might adopt similar structural views of the market.
The information presented here (& on Andyâs thread) offers individuals the choice to explore a solid, logical framework & use it to put their own individual stamp on the process.
You need to determine exactly how & where [B]you[/B] fit into that framework by utilizing some or all of the components that make up this particular approach.
If youâre following the strict entry rules of 3 Ducks then your current stance on eur/usd will be neutral/bullish.
You wonât be considering a long re-entry on eur/usd until price ratchets back beyond the 1 hour 60sma at c1.1190-1200 (based on todayâs midday gmt pricing).
You wonât be considering a short entry on eur/usd until price slips underneath the 4 hour 60sma at c1.0950 (based on todayâs midday gmt pricing).
The very worst thing thing you could do is to begin flip flopping back & forth between 2 or more structural set ups, unless of course youâre very experienced & totally aware of whatâs going on around you.
And I do mean totally aware!! otherwise youâre going to get tangled up in all sorts of trouble.
So, first & foremost take AltTabâs advice & sort out exactly which structual & set up profile youâre intending to use & then begin familiarizing yourself with how it works & how comfortable you feel operating it.
Itâs a work-in-progress for me for sure, but Iâm working on it⌠- I appreciate all the help & advice.
Kechel and all,
I would keep in mind the following for this week:
-
Itâs news week (RBA rates , EU retail sales, US jobless claims, NFP etc). Andyâs suggestion is to limit trading on the first week of the month
-
UK election on the 7th affecting GBP pairs
It seems the market (EUR, GBP, AUD) has been in a corrective mood, with macro direction (down) diverging from recent price action.
My approach is to wait it out, until the two are aligned. I think we will see clearer directional moves next week.
The toughest thing about Andyâs system is âsitting on yer handsâ and waiting for the market to come to you, rather than chasing it. However, this keeps you out of loads of false trades and capitalizing on the stronger/clearer moves.
Thanks for the great thread, itâs on my watch list.
Youâre not wrong there
That filter has definitely done its job yet again so far this week on EUR/USD.
Whilst all the top pickers have been vainly attempting to short into that continued bullish EUR/USD cycle, the 3 Ducks & directional momentum players have positioned themselves the right side of the intraday flows!!
I really canât fault this background & foreground structure approach thus far.
Youâll still be saying that this time next year & the year after & the year after that etc etcâŚ
I presume youâre staying on top of your housekeeping with this approach & if you are youâll see a very consistent pattern unfold as your stats begin to expand.
So, on the subject of continued directional momentum, what else have you noted about the structural entry set ups unfolding on eurusd longs this week?
& Iâm talking specifically about the repetitively consistent technical areas youâve been advised to observe.
Iâll give you a gigantic clue, coz Iâm good like that
Itâs played out so far this week too on gbpusd, eurgbp, audusd, usdcad, eurjpy - oh, I canât be bothered to name them all, lolâŚyouâll get the drift once you identify it.
If you need another clue, read back through your most revealing post.
haha, I very nearly mentioned it but assumed it was too obvious to reference.
But yes, [U]trading into[/U] the previous dayâs high (or low) and the previous weekâs high (or low) from the top or underneath via a hook entry.
Monday & Tuesdayâs high on EUR/USD was 1.1222 & last weekâs high 1.1288
5 & 15 minute hook entries available at varying times during the trading sessions in sync with those pairs current momentum.
Well, however you decide to proceed ensure you maintain consistency & discipline.
Your record keeping will illuminate & focus any potential fracture points & problematic areas related to your approach, which in turn will enable you to quickly focus on any areas requiring attention.
Good luck with it.
Itâs been an interesting week for me, lessons learned.
Iâm beginning to think (please correct me if Iâm wrong) of the previous days/weeks/months highs & lows as simply kind of signposts along the way â giving you a clear insight into the direction of price. Iâm still struggling slightly to use the trading opportunities they provide in the way Sketcher has reminded us of from the older templates threads. Peopleâs encouragement to him encourages me to carry on looking at them though.
The 4h/1h 3 Ducks use of the alignment of the smaâs is proving its worth for me though & something I donât think Iâll be ignoring in the future â but maybe where Iâm straying slightly from the strict 3 Ducks template where price only needs to be above the sma on the 1h, is my preference (as signposted here) of a âgood-lookingâ 1h chart for want of a better expression.
Iâve been coming to some kind of arrangement on my entries as well, whereby for the pullback entries, Iâm taking my cue from a 1h pullback, then moving down to the 5m. Where there isnât a pullback on the 1h, but the set-up on the 4h/1h is still good, Iâm going with the Captainâs breakout & pending orders option. That just seems to fit with the attention Iâm capable of giving due to my normal working hours.
Still working on nailing everything down and keeping on top of how to work with the market drivers side of things, but any further advice would be greatly received.