[quote=“cator, post:1272, topic:71504”]thar she blows sniffing out the action above those clouds
that was a smart decision to keep your stake alive…lets hope it catches some tasty orders up there!
& 2 out of 3 of your bankers are off to the races again…happy dayz[/quote]
All 3 of the cad pairs closed strongly on the day & week into friday with 2 of them nestling into round numbers. I’ve read often enough on here & heard it too many times elsewhere that you don’t scale out of winning positions, you only add to them. And the magnet of round numbers/big figures nearly always suggest stop orders resting the other side.
eurcad looks like closing the day up at the next (big) round number at 1.60 whilst usdcad is a whisker away from its own big one at 1.30
Obviously there’ll be each-way business at those big figure levels, but again on strong closes it’s a no brainer to wait & see how the orders play out as price probes & seeks the strongest order collective.
I have the same biases hawkmoon just not quite as accurate or precise as you guys, but my crude aggregation is usually enough to add another positive tick in the decision box. What i find just as interesting is when price is basing at decision areas in a dominant momentum leg yet the open orders are more balanced.
I now immediately consign those pairings (providing of course they’re on the A list already) temporarily to the B list & it’s rarely proven to be a wrong decision.
[quote=“sylvanbirch, post:1274, topic:71504”]What i find just as interesting is when price is basing at decision areas in a dominant momentum leg yet the open orders are more balanced.
I now immediately consign those pairings (providing of course they’re on the A list already) temporarily to the B list & it’s rarely proven to be a wrong decision.[/quote]
Very good observation & reaction.
You won’t go far wrong adopting that practice whenever the stats suggest that sceanrio playing out. Just as it did on your highlight pairs the last couple days as per the examples.
It either helps in the decision to get you onto the sidelines or keep you there, dependent on your current situation, while you turn your attention to pairs highlighting more extreme weightings
And although i haven’t yet checked it out to any degree, it would offer an early indication of exhaustion via basing at round number bounces following extended moves.
I’ve noticed the behaviour quite a lot over the past 6 months or so but because this is primarily a directional set up, haven’t given it more than a passing glance.
[quote=“sylvanbirch, post:1276, topic:71504”]I’ve noticed the behaviour quite a lot over the past 6 months or so but because this is primarily a directional set up, haven’t given it more than a passing glance.
I might just take a closer look from hereon in.[/quote]
If you do, ensure you’re zoning in on the higher daily range stuff for intraday plays sylvan otherwise you’ll have to sit through long periods of interminable boredom.
I have a grid template with the higher ranked pairings grouped separately for a similar objective.
Basically it’s a 2 columnX8 pair grid consisting of Sterling & Euro paired with Kiwi, Aussie, Yen & Swiss. They’re (still) the highest intraday range performers & you’ll discover the Kiwi, Swiss & Yen match ups offer consistently acceptable moves into & away from round numbers/figures when overlaid with the positional weightings data.
[quote=“wyntac, post:1277, topic:71504”]If you do, ensure you’re zoning in on the higher daily range stuff for intraday plays sylvan otherwise you’ll have to sit through long periods of interminable boredom.
I have a grid template with the higher ranked pairings grouped separately for a similar objective.[/quote]
Cheers wyntac.
I’ll begin paying much closer attention to these scenarios whenever the transitions begin setting up, particularly when the basing pattern materialises. Initial first glances & lookbacks are already highlighting good, consistent potential.
Reflecting on that point, i note eurcad started to flip on tuesday, began loading more heavily into longs wednesday & peaked thursday right around that big 1.60 number as it posted a lower high right on the figure during the London/NY transition phase. It was similar activity on gbpcad at 1.80, just not quite as aggressive.
Going back to my reply post to hawkmoon last week where i mentioned the netting activity when basing, gbpchf was reasonably balanced into beginning of last week but swung noticeably short on tuesday & again wednesday as it bounced off 1.30 having based. Shorts were still strongly outstripping longs as it cleared early week highs into 1.31 on wednesday.
I’m sure those situations can offer good short term/intraday probability set ups using the structural elements from a slightly different angle when the big levels are in play. After all, that’s where the bulk of order tickets are usually resting, confirming why price often accelerates rapidly away from those zones so consistently.
Again, careful flitering when undertaking that set up will undoubtedly offer increased odds of success.
& thar she (they) blows again.
only this time those round number clouds are somewhat thinner than the last time they popped above!
retail volume & participation still sitting heavily short this week on dollar, euro & sterling v/s cad (which is good news for your core longs) whilst the non-retail stats continue to remain positioned breakout/continuation longs on all 3.
Certainly thinner on usdcad that’s for sure & nicely supported on monday at 1.28 off the pullback.
Hopefully that head of steam on eurcad underneath the 2016/last week’s high at 6100 will follow through too, having been kept afloat by 1.60 this week. Market has been drowsy into today’s action, about time it received a bit of a kick.
If my figures are correct i have sterling daily & weekly range numbers around 35% higher than euro? I didn’t engage with that pair very much previously but it clearly offers bigger bang for your buck.
Those are very handy comparisons to refer to especially when the market quietens after active moves. I’m awaiting a reply from Merle regarding split readings, but they’re not heavily forex oriented in there.
I noticed one or two balanced off again this week on the retail side & the biases on my aggregates have confirmed your comments.
Thereabouts. It contracts & expands every now & again & brexit has impacted slightly on the rolling quarterly averages, but you’ll generally receive a bigger payday punting that one as opposed to euro. It reacts to & performs cleaner off the 00’s too.
Cheers guys
I’m as pleased that audjpy has returned to the fold as i am of the others kicking up another gear, but also mindful of the fact they’re all stretching weekly range boundaries. At least they’re pushing the right way though.
No problem.
If you’re positioned value short on AUDJPY I’d hang onto a decent stake as it approaches to those Q2 2017 lows underneath 81.0
Judging by your comments you appear to have an appreciation of the type of order traffic that usually takes place on & around key levels such as that.
If you’re building/constructing your short & medium term game plays around the 00 structures you’ll have a ball on the currencies. The fx guys on Merle’s site are all short-term participants & primarily algo driven, but they’ll steer you towards adopting good flitering procedures when looking to bet those scenarios.
I feel I have found a comfort level using the 30 minute chart. I then just basically have two filters. A 4 hr background, and a 30 minute background and trigger. I’m still in the testing/defining stages, but I am confident, when keeping the 4 hr chart as my directional ‘boss’. Results for the past three weeks have been stellar.
I’ve got a long position on gbp/USD, which I am hoping to catch my first ‘runner’ I guess the rest of the week/month (oh my) will tell. I hope I can keep my fingers off the close button. Lol.
And don’t forget you’ve also got your prior session day/week & average range markers to keep you afloat (or not) when your bets begin jogging into life. You can’t really ask for any more solid or unambiguous supporters than those to keep the move honest or tip you the nod a move might just be temporarily exhausting.
If something looks like it’s forming higher lows & highs jogging up or lower highs & lows jogging down without violating prior session levels on your primary frame of reference then it probably is, & it’s still alive, for the time being anyway, until it doesn’t anymore.
Guys,
There’s been a recent interest spike in strength meters. In your view is it worth aligning one alongside the average range data, session & round number levels?
As this concept focuses on visual identification of dominant trend structures via the session levels, would adding a meter likely add any noticeable benefit to the filtering/execution stage?
I can see how it would benefit day trade set ups once a pair begins stair-stepping by taking pullback entries for instance, such as the major leg on the US Dollar/Swiss Franc or the minor legs on US Dollar/Yen, Euro/NZ Dollar & NZ Dollar/Canadian Dollar, but unless i’m missing something i can’t see it adding much to what you guys have already presented when looking to roll positions over when appropriate.
Thanks to all who have, & continue to post to the thread. It’s been a great find & refreshing change to the usual servings of technical analysis i’ve encountered.
The path of least resistance is already identified via the identification & filtering criteria & once it spotlights the movers & shakers, you’ll be off to the races.
Just look at your usdchf example for instance. It triggered a long entry wk comm feb 26 when it violated 2 prior weekly highs. If your objective was to roll it over into multiple sessions then you’d still be alive & kicking in that gamble because during that 9 week hike it hasn’t closed underneath a weekly low.
A meter wouldn’t have told you anything you couldn’t already see or compute with your own eyes. In fact it would likely have been a hindrance prompting you to cash out prematurely if the buck registered a temporary (aggressive) weakness on the meter. That scenario of course often represents nothing more than a pullback within a dominant cycle, but aggressive counter moves often shake out weak hands because they don’t have clear exit criteria based around logical price structure.
As you infer, a meter will tip you the early nod on a hot intraday bet, which might or might not at the time be on your A list. That’s where it will earn its stripes.
corpellan was (& may still be) using one for a while on his intraday gambles in tandem with the average range data, as I believe has the newest contributor, Sylvan. They might offer a slant on it when they read this.
I’d be very surprised however if they reference it when adjudging rollover potential as there’s really no need.
