Corpellan these clear examples have been extremely useful and have drilled the points home very clearly.
So if possible, Id just like to clarify something on the Gold example because it's directly related to my management of the EurUsd bet this week.
I do understand these are examples to illustrate a point - so I'm carrying on with that mindset:
Gold stated on the correct side of the week's open, whereas AudJpy started into a retracement. So in any case we'd have to be long from the prior week around 86 since the conditions weren't there to trigger any bets until later in the week (after it got back above the open).
On Gold in particular: if looking to hold the bet intraweek (with a 70-80% weekly ATR objective) it can still make sense to hold the trade if it changes bias intraday (going from positive to negative on the day) unless it violates a prior day's range.
If looking to hold for longer, it makes sense to use the prior week's brackets as you & soultrain clearly highlighted and that makes sense also.
Since there was no direct refernce to it, I'm guessing that the week's bias has no weight in management? Gold flipped it's weekly bias and as you noticed, didn't recover at all. The Euro flipped it's weekly bias an closed lower...I've noticed many examples where this happens....if teh week starts off in positive territory, and monday closes positive, but then tuesday flips the bias and closes negative on the week, the best you can hope for is for a neutral week...I've seen this happen on countless occasions.
Instead, if the week starts as a retracement, there is scope to catch it on a dip and see hte week close positive (AudJpy this week).
Having seen this play out often, I cut Euro when it dropped through 1.0700 and made a lower high.
But would you have cut Gold when it fell through the week's open (which coincided with a prior day's low) or is that really premature?
I know you might say "horses for courses" or something like that...I'm just trying to balance out what I've seen with what might make more sense, given certain time-frame objectives.
Hope this makes sense.