Lost a couple of feeder stakes on Gbpusd & Gbpnzd this morning.
I entered cable a bit hastily, but Gbpnzd seemed a decent set-up-
GBPNZD (5m chart)
Price had come down to test the Daily Open, & had started to make HH’s & HL’s (a 1-2-3 type set-up), but there was no follow through.
I only risked 0.25% on this opening probing type trade, so at least I discovered there was no GBP strength relatively cheaply.
All my filtered pairs are suffering a dose of the monday blues syndrome too.
None of them have come close to offering even a 1 hour hook on potential pullbacks this morning so I haven’t been triggered in as yet. The only one that came close was nzd-usd but that occurred during the morning asian session when I was tucked up asleep.
It’s early days yet for this trading week. I’m sure one or two of them will click into place over the next couple of sessions.
If you were waiting for the pullback on the 1h, your patience might’ve been rewarded…
Both entered the hitting zone in the US session with enough left in the ADR… I managed to get some of the upmove in Gbpusd to compensate a bit for this morning, but I’ll call it a day here I think & come back tomorrow. Did you take anything wyntac?
So for tomorrow, some of the same GBP pairs are still in play-
Gbpusd & Gbpnzd
As long as today’s lows hold (the shaded areas), I’ll still be looking to buy on dips, though ideally last weeks highs will break. We should find out one way or another early tomorrow, as it’s a big data day for GBP as wyntac mentions (9.30am gmt) so I’ll look to see if I can get a position before, if not, see how the data comes & see if there’s an opportunity to position afterwards on a pullback on 1 of the lower timeframes if the news has been good.
Two other possible candidates-
Gbpjpy & Audnzd - again, today’s lows marking the cut-off points for Longs tomorrow.
Hey Kechel,
The Stoch hook on GBPUSD was a nice one - unfortunately price had crossed below the 60SMA on the 1hr chart so I stood aside. I’m guessing the moving average on your charts is a longer one?
Keep these trades coming, interesting to watch.
Hi fxsnowball, it’s the 4h 60sma transferred over to the 1h chart (so it’s the 240sma on the 1h).
The 1h chart is really the workhorse for me & where I do most of my looking, but I still like to see where price is in relation to the 4h 60sma for guidance on direction, so that’s why I put it on there. I’ll only look for longs when price is above that line, shorts below.
When it comes to the 1h chart though, I’m less concerned with the 1h 60sma & try to let the structure of the market guide me to take a trade or not. That’s why I had no qualms taking yesterday’s dip on Gbpusd even though you say it was below the 1h 60sma.
For me personally, from the 1h chart down, it’s more about the stochastics & trying to understand & interpret where price is in relation to some of the other guidelines (previous sessions & days highs/lows, previous weeks high/lows etc).
I would think most of the time though that that interacts pretty closely with the 60sma’s across the timeframes.
Keep these trades coming, interesting to watch.
Same goes to you on the 3 Ducks thread - good to watch.
The GBP data came in lower than expected in some cases, causing a bit of a sell-off in the pound.
It’s still in the buyzone for me though, so I’m still open to looking to enter long, possibly Gbpcad or Gbpusd & Gbpnzd-
1h
They were good entries.
Did you decide to roll it over & run it wyntac?
I had the same pairs up on the viewfinder as you guys which isn’t & shouldn’t really be surprising.
I’m still preferring GBP/NZD, but must admit that Cable move y’day off that pullback worked a treat.
Entered long on both Gbpcad & Gbpnzd.
Gbpcad 5m-
Took first Take Profit back at today’s highs, and now looking to trail remaining half up below swing lows.
Almost identical trade on Gbpnzd-
Take Profit 1 taken at highs of the day, and the remaining half to be trailed up.
See if I can trail a bit more successfully than I did on Gbpusd yesterday.
Edit: I think my actual entry points are very hit & miss, but the fact that this still turns out regular winning trades just goes to show how powerful choosing the right pairs & getting on the right side of the directional bias can be.
I’ve taken the moving average off my charts completely starting last week.
I saw a couple of posts from these guys on here & the 3 Ducks thread about focusing on exactly what the moving average was encouraging readers to observe, which is obviously the orderly cyclical structure of the trend on those hourly charts.
I’m now only using that previous higher low or lower high structure to give me feedback on how the trend is behaving & whether i wish to take part in it + the stochastic as a visual prompt on pullbacks. So far it’s working out ok & i haven’t really missed the moving average guide at all. It would definitely have kept me out of this move had i obeyed the strict rule yesterday, as you mentioned in your above post.
I did yes. It closed up at the highs & i simply let it be & trailed my stop up this morning to the entry point.
I’ll consider whether to cash it or leave it to run a bit more this afternoon.
But i’m happy with how it’s played out thus far.
I’ve been spending a fair bit of time with some of the original Technical Template guys lately as they’ve very kindly been helping me tweak, test & formalise an algorithm & the point you make regarding entries came up in discussions a couple of times.
They confirmed (& provided live stats from clients & their own books) that the entry was in fact the least important part of this particular manual approach because the framework which supports & compliments this style of play affords a good deal of flexibility, especially if the objective is to run or roll trades over in step with either an established or evolving trend. Plus of course there’s no extra technical analysis padding or additional confirmatory layers to muddy the waters, which is a huge bonus.
So, I wouldn’t bother too much about pinning entries down to precise levels kechel.
You’ve already highlighted the most important aspects of this structure, being the correctly filtered pairs based on the highest quality trending behaviour.
Somebody should be sitting with a big contented smile on their face round about now.
Those threads & 1 or 2 others on other forums (which I think may feature some of their colleagues/acquaintances) have been my sole reading material for a little while now. I couldn’t say enough thanks for all the contributions they contain really.
They may differ slightly over some details, but they all seem to have the same principles in place when it comes to the main background/foreground story – choose pairs showing the classic trending features, and enter in line with the flow. Risk/trade management to suit your personal requirements. And then practice & patience.
They confirmed (& provided live stats from clients & their own books) that the entry was in fact the least important part of this particular manual approach because the framework which supports & compliments this style of play affords a good deal of flexibility, especially if the objective is to run or roll trades over in step with either an established or evolving trend.
That’s helpful & re-assuring to know – thanks.
My trailing skills aren’t quite the finished article, so I’ll not be cracking open the jaffa cakes just yet:5:, but it’s actually the beginning to get a handle on the whole framework and that feeling of being on the right pairs at the right time which is the most satisfying part. That’s what you hope you can repeat and turn into a level of consistency that’ll bring some real confidence to bear. A bit of action like this week certainly helps to do that, but I’m aware of keeping a level head & focus, especially after a couple of wins.
*I’d really recommend reading those Technical Template threads to anyone who’s interested in this kind of trading. And if I’m allowed to say, google a certain “Joe Whitehorse Forex” for an absolutely great thread as well in keeping with what’s here.
I have a question if anyone can answer re. the Monday morning (London) session-
Would you say that you have a different routine for this session in terms of looking at possible trades, being more cautious, reducing risk possibly, as opposed to other days?
I wonder if the price movements in the previous overnight Asian session would be enough to give you a clear read on how London would be reacting to any weekend news?
Say the Asian session had produced no great movements & there doesn’t seem to have been any obvious change to market drivers over the weekend, would that encourage you to carry on from where you left things on Friday, or would you still like to see how the Europe/London session unfurled, and maybe look to begin entering towards New York open if opportunity presented itself?
I just have a mind to be more cautious at this time, possibly reducing position size, or is it better to let Monday mornings alone completely & wait to see how things lie?
Monday morning activity in early europe is generally somewhat subdued following NFP & any spotlight political meetings or events likely to cause changes in volatility, but it can just as easily increase that volatility than dissipate it.
Late Friday’s & early Monday’s are traditionally busy periods anyway where orders are being pulled, placed, re-structured & deployed, so until it all settles out markets are bound to be a little skittish.
If your stats based on the approach you use suggests caution for that 4-5 hour period until you can obtain a clearer read on likely direction, then go with your observations.
I’ve never received any definitive or obvious feedback from folks confirming or suggesting extra caution or hesitancy about placing bets on Mondays & neither have any of the other guys mentioned it specifically.
One of the key decision motivators would obviously revolve around the type of approach being worked.
If you’re predominantly a day or intra-session player then you might want to gauge the appetite of the market prior to laying your money down into the early week flows. If however your view is of a slightly longer duration that specific scenario won’t usually be such a priority, particularly if the preceding weekend was uneventful.
As with most things in this game kechel, some Monday’s will offer up tasty opportunities & others will turn out to be a non-event.
I certainly don’t have any overly positive or negative statistics to share that focus a particular anomaly on Monday morning activity.
I’m not seeing too many good, clear, obvious set-up’s at the minute - is anybody seeing something I’m missing?
A couple of Euro pairs are worth keeping an eye on possibly-
Euraud & Eurcad (1h charts)
Both are showing higher Daily Lows, though Eurcad looks a cleaner set-up to me. Whilst technically it looks ok, the unclear sentiment surrounding the fundamentals (Greek issues on 1 side, and Oil/Iran market drivers on the other), make a trade less straight-forward right now. Both on my watchlist however.
A couple others -
Gbpaud (or Gbpcad) & Usdcad (4h)
Both a bit messy on the 1h-
If you have to look too hard, it’s probably best to wait…
On the forex i’ve been trading Kiwi lately kechel toggling between Yen, USD & AUD mainly because the momentum, trending cycles & breakouts has continued to offer smoother potential on those pairings. Got stopped on AUD/NZD early July & NZD/USD last wednesday but will look to re-engage again if/when the bearish Kiwi momentum picks up across a few of the above pairs.
But you’re right, patience is definitely your best friend when opportunities are in short supply.
It goes in cycles doesn’t it. We’ll receive a glut of set ups where we literally pluck the low hanging fruit without even stretching, then it’ll rotate into a lean period where maybe only 1 or 2 pairs from 20 will offer a decent bite.
Such is life.
I managed to catch just a bit of the Nzdusd and an Nzdcad move at the end of June before having a bit of a holiday - just back this weekend and all the moves seem to have stalled out a little bit like you say. Let’s see what happens as the week moves on…
But you’re right, patience is definitely your best friend when opportunities are in short supply.
It goes in cycles doesn’t it. We’ll receive a glut of set ups where we literally pluck the low hanging fruit without even stretching, then it’ll rotate into a lean period where maybe only 1 or 2 pairs from 20 will offer a decent bite.Such is life.
Yes, it does seem to be that way - just being aware of that though can help you ease off the trigger a bit in lean times rather than go looking for any old set-up.
As a matter of curiosity, how’s the automated option going sketcher?
Is it exclusively fx & run along similar lines to the manual structure?
so since I believe I have a correct view of background now - is it as simple as creating an alert when a foreground stoch value reaches 80 or 20? KISS - then just make your same analysis when the alert goes off - and decide whether or not to enter.
