right right!!!
You are doing pretty fine btw - $47,120 following you! substantial I would say! 
haha 
$4.000.000,-- then the game really starts
The following month I hope the system will climb to rang top100.
Then traders are able to see the performance. Iâm not planning to trade one year, then collapse systemâŚ
(most/maybe all of non automatic traders, semi automated systems do on zulutrade) (DD not managed standardised)
Iâm planning to let the system work for at least 10 years. (depending on monthly performance)
At the moment:
737 pips.
Planning:
end of this month: +/- 800 pips.
end of september: 1000-1100 pips.
Pretty much as the picture I posted some weeks agoâŚ
At the moment:
Hey there ,
Planning the system to trade for 10 whole years?!?!
A little bit audacious plan, donât you think? but it is good to think and plan big, eventually you will find yourself somewhere in the middle.
Haha, yeah 10 years maybe a bit ambitious. 
I donât see any changes in the performance of the system in 2010 till end 2013. So why not letting this system run for 10 years? (If system is performing well, DD and performance month are still good)
We will see right I think itâs working as one of the best systems on zulu at the moment. (but then 100% automated)
With backtests we now know how to trade safe with responsible money management.
Now we have to cool down, act disciplined. Trading with the right volume of lots. (do not let greed interfere with our trading) The system has to do the work.
pipshippers,
ambitious or not, I like the lines that you think and write about! I really hope you will stick around for at least a year or two hopefully three, so we can see you perform your miracles on zulutrade and we can get to be rich off you
Hopefully Zulutrade will remain in business providing such services.
I donât think it is going anywhere! on the contrary constantly improving, so this works fine with all - followers, traders and the markets !
[B]I did some statistics this weekendâŚ
(sell AUD/USD at the moment fully automated while Iâm writing this postâŚhaha)
There is also a chance you will not make any profits with following PipShip. (euhm, this sentence feels very negative⌠Iâm trying to be down to earthâŚ)
In the following message you can read the actual chances of succeeding with PipShip (calculated by using the TEST and LIVE performance)[/B]
Chance of not succeeding with PipShip; the risk vs return ratioâŚ
Itâs important not to hit the Abs Stop the first 6 months. (because then you will hit the -10% risk on original deposit) According to the TEST and LIVE performance of PipShip, we think the average time to hit the Abs Stop is about 3 years. (We made the prospect above with an average time of 3 years till hitting the stop) Then the chance to hit the Abs Stop is about 22% each year. (year 1: 78% traders still no hit, year 2: 0.78 â 0.22 x 0.78 x 100% = 61% traders still no hit, year 3: 0.61 â 0.22 x 0.61 x 100% = +/- 50% traders left)
Then by trading the first two trimesters (6 months) there still is a +/- 11% chance of not making profit with the PipShip Methodology the first time risking 10%. (0.11 + 0.11^2 + 0.11^3 + 0.11^4 ⌠x 100% = 12%) Then we only look at the technical chance of success of the system itself. Of course a bad trading philosophy/greediness of the investor -> overtrading -> not succeeding, this chance is not included. The chance of a technical failure of the HA server of course also not included. (but Abs Stop guaranteed by broker)
Until now, we have not seen DDâs below 600 pips. The chance to hit the Abs Stop (-1000 pips) therefore could also be somewhat lower. Itâs a speculative subject. Only by gathering more LIVE performance data, more accurate statements can be made. But still then, we cannot look into the future. There is always a chance of not making any profits with PipShip. (the risk of trading) There is only an oppertunistic chance on gaining profit the first time risking 10%. (about 88%)
Hit Stoploss during the first 6 month period? Bad luck? Exceptional Market Circumstances? Or a bad Signal Provider Strategy?
Trying a second time after loosing 10% (12% chance of hitting the Abs Stop the first 6 months), the technical chance of not succeeding is still 12%. (again same characteristics) But in total, the chance of gaining profit with PipShip is far higher. (1-0.12^2 x 100% = 98%) About 98% chance of gaining profit with PipShip risking 20%.
10% risk on deposit and having a chance of 88% success or⌠20% risk on deposit before having a chance of 98% success?
A 88% successrate can still feel somewhat low. A successrate of 98% maybe is experienced as more convenient or peacefull. Traders with a minimum deposit of $2000,â are also able to use a minimum risk approach (5% each month) instead of a normal risk approach (10% each month).
right right! very lovely sensitivity analysis you have put us there!
I am very impressed! I think you should also put this in the official zulutrade forum - thus many more followers can benefit from your analysis!
Normal Risk or Minimum Risk Approach?
On the other hand, there is a huge difference in the total profit of the normal and minimum risk approach after trading for example for 3 years. (and hit Abs Stop after trading 3 years)
Normal Risk Approach: E 5000 -> E 60.500, 88% chance of success, risk 10%.
Minimum Risk Approach: E 5000 -> E 15.000, 98% chance of success, risk 10%.
âBuyingâ more security is also very costly. There is a certain balance between return and chance of success.
Choosing for max profit? -> Normal Risk Approach.
Choosing for max chance of success? -> Min Risk Approach.
I think you should rename chance of success to âprobability of successâ . I think it gives more scientific connotation to trading. we all know that high expected returns compensate for high risk involved.
these calculations are based on your trading signal?
Oke, thank you. My english is not very good. Iâll change it to âprobability of successâ.
Yes calculations based on my signal.
Oke correct overview again
Probability of not gaining profit with PipShip; the risk vs return ratioâŚ
Itâs important not to hit the Abs Stop the first 7 months. (because then you will hit the -10% risk on original deposit) According to the TEST and LIVE performance of PipShip, we think the average time to hit the Abs Stop is about 3 years. (We made the prospect above with an average time of 3 years till hitting the stop) Then the probability to hit the Abs Stop is about 22% each year. (year 1: 78% traders still no hit, year 2: 0.78 â 0.22 x 0.78 x 100% = 61% traders still no hit, year 3: 0.61 â 0.22 x 0.61 x 100% = +/- 50% traders left)
Then by trading the first two trimesters (6/7 months) there still is a +/- 11% probability of not making profit with the PipShip Methodology the first time risking 10%. (0.11 + 0.11^2 + 0.11^3 + 0.11^4 ⌠x 100% = 12%) Then we only look at the technical probability of profit of the system itself. Of course a bad trading philosophy/greediness of the investor -> overtrading -> not succeeding, this probability is not included. The probability of a technical failure of the HA server of course also not included. (but Abs Stop guaranteed by broker)
Until now, we have not seen DDâs below 600 pips. The probability to hit the Abs Stop (-1000 pips) therefore could also be somewhat lower. Itâs a speculative subject. Only by gathering more LIVE performance data, more accurate statements can be made. But still then, we cannot look into the future. There is always a probability of not making any profits with PipShip. (the risk of trading) There is only an oppertunistic probability on gaining profit the first time risking 10%. (about 88%)
Hit Stoploss during the first 6 month period? Bad luck? Exceptional Market Circumstances? Or a bad Signal Provider Strategy?
Trying a second time after loosing 10% (probability of 12% of hitting the Abs Stop the first 6/7 months), the technical probability of not succeeding is still 12%. (again same characteristics) But in total, the probability of gaining profit with PipShip is far higher. (1-0.12^2 x 100% = 98%) About a probability of 98% of gaining profit with PipShip risking 20%.
10% risk on deposit and having a probability of 88% success or⌠20% risk on deposit before having a probability of 98% success?
As investors ourselves, we understand that a 88% successrate can still feel somewhat low. A probability on profit of 98% maybe is experienced as more convenient or peacefull. Traders with a minimum deposit of $2000,â are also able to use a minimum risk approach (5% each month) instead of a normal risk approach (10% each month).
- We use both terms âprobability of profitâ and âprobability of successâ. Of course there is a difference between âprofitâ and âsuccessâ. Profit; any positive return on the original deposit. Success; the goal to achieve. Nevertheless, after trading the first 7 months, the profit buffer between the current return and the original deposit is large enough to start over a second time (after 8 months even a third time) if hitting the Abs Stop. The two terms âprobability of profitâ and âprobability of successâ therefore wonât differ in percentage or probability.
Normal Risk or Minimum Risk Approach?
On the other hand, there is a huge difference in the total profit of the normal and minimum risk approach after trading for example for 3 years. (and hit Abs Stop after trading 3 years)
Normal Risk Approach: E 5000 -> E 60.500, 88% probability of success, risk 10%.
Minimum Risk Approach: E 5000 -> E 15.000, 98% probability of success, risk 10%.
- E 60.500 and E 15.000 is the average return after trading for 3 years. The probability of success is the probability of making a profit risking 10% of original deposit only once. (hopefully trading for 3 years after making it through the first 6/7 months) The average profit after trading for 3 years is (normal risk approach) E 60.500 and (min risk approach) E 15.000. Illutrated in the image below: (normal risk approach)
âBuyingâ more security is also very costly. (E 60.500 vs E 15.000, 88% vs 98%)
There is a certain balance between return and probability of success.
Choosing for max profit? -> Normal Risk Approach.
Choosing for a max probability of success? -> Minimum Risk Approach.
Interesting point and observation!
Is this valid for all the zulutrade traders?
Valid for all zulutraders trading with pipship and using the normal risk approach illustrated at my website.
Normal risk approach = max 10% risk on equity account. Then in 3 years you will make a profit with certainty of 88%, avg profit of E 60.500 starting with E 5.000
I now do have $100.000 in account. 
$100.000 following my signal.
Next week I will start trading with E 5000 by myself. (banktransfer then has been completed)
I will make a printscreen of my zulutrade account.
Then printscreen about every weekâŚ
This month we gained exactly 300 pips.
(system has to earn on average 300 pips/month)
As posted some weeks ago, end of this month had to be +/- 800 pips. (end of august)
We are now at 791 pips. End of september will be: +/- 1100 pips?
Ranking of my system is 500. Each week Iâm climbing about 100 rangs.
Trading top100 begin of november?
Next week I will start trading with my second zulu account more seriously using: E 5000,â.
(first account E 1000,-- profit is E 50,-- trading 0.2 minilots / $ 1000)
I will post a screenshot once a week.
The strategy Iâm using is complex. Therefore I wrote a step-by-step trading manual:
Trading Manual | PipShip
Have a nice weekend!
10% of risk on equity - this is also extended and to my equity or yours? As 10% for you will be a death trap for me! How are you thinking to manage that?
Good for you!! You are doing a great job!
you mean you will open a followers account? or trading with real money?