I have 100ema and 200ema on my charts, often, certainly on the Daily. It can act as a nice line of S&R in a trending market, in my experience.
2 Likes
Although I’m sworn against using MA’s as s/r, the 200EMA is making a brave attempt to be real trend support for the major US stock indices.
This looks quite neat, but when it comes to the DAX, FTSE100, Gold, Silver, Brent and the major forex pairs, its much less convincing.
Hey Manxx,
Great hearing from you, and thanks for the affirmation.
My messing with forex has had its fits and starts as I’ve been quite busy with other things, but I’m back to it now, and all the bits and pieces seem to be coming together. (So many bits and pieces! Some fit for the dump, some worth keeping, and then fashioning the latter into an organic whole that works.)
Wow! Quite a history of the 200! I’ll be reading it again.
Thanks - and again, great hearing from you!
Norm
1 Like
Hi Clint,
Good hearing from you, and thanks for the lead to Dennis’ use of the MA. I’ll take a peek at it as I’m able.
I appreciate your thoughts concerning how I, my family and community are doing under the shadow of Kilauea.
My family and I live on the other side of the island, so there’s no lava threat to us here. Of course, we are all grieved at the great misfortune suffered by those downslope from the volcano. 714 homes gone up in flames? It’s unfathomable! An enemy dropping bombs could hardly do more damage with conventional weapons!
The road around our island is only about 300 miles, so we all feel for each other! We all know some people who were directly affected. Many who lost homes are still living in shelters, mattress to mattress with others. Almost none had volcano damage insurance as its cost is astronomical. In addition, many have lost jobs in the area as people have evacuated, roads have been closed, and businesses boarded up indefinitely; and tourism, a major industry here, has been down 50%. Add to these blessings the privilege of breathing volcanic gases, which most on the island, including me and my family, do daily due to the prevailing winds; and the relative gloominess of living in this cloud. Some days the air is relatively vog (volcanic fog) free, but on others we can hardly see the ocean, even from just a half mile upslope from it.
This is not to say that my family and I are not happy campers. We are! The joy of the Lord is our strength! I’m almost seventy-four, and I still run - if you could call it running - and do mile-long ocean swims beholding the glories of the Lord’s creation with mask and snorkel.
Thanks for the welcome back to the forums. I’ve made some good friends here, learned plenty, and have even contributed a bit.
God Bless, Clint, and take care,
Norm,
3 Likes
In a trending market, the 200 ma can be a very powerful point of support or resistance, if you have not seen it work so well in the last couple of months is because markets have not been trending, GBPUSD below is one of the few long term trends I have identified on my thread. I watch this moving average on Daily, 4hr and 1hr charts
2 Likes
Hi all,
I cannot respond to everyone’s input individually, but I want to thank you all, not just for me but for everyone who has and will benefit from your comments.
I wrote that I’m refining a system I’m working on; and “the deal” I just discovered about the 200 MA in respect to that is that I think I found a way to bring it under control and make it useful.
I’m experimenting with the dailies as that’s the minimum time frame that, as far as I can tell, will work well with my work schedule. We are all looking for ways to put the odds more in our favor, and this is where the MA comes in.
As you know, even the 200 MA has its twists and turns, causing one to wonder, at times, what the overall trend really is; so what I’ve done was draw a ray from the very beginning of the MA to the very end, creating a clear-as-a-bell up or down slope. Now, what I intend to try is this: Whether price is above or below the MA, I’m going to trade ONLY in the direction of the slope (unless there’s a very strong signal warranting a trade in the opposite direction). I’ve got other more important filters, but I expect that this will help, hopefully significantly - and hopefully, it will prove helpful to some of you.
Blessings,
Norm
Hi again,
By way of clarification: I wrote that I’m testing trades on the daily charts, and having revealed my age, some of you may be wondering if I’ll die before my testing is completed. Well, take heart, friends. I’m testing on Forex Tester 3; so whereas a fifteen candle trade would normally take three trading weeks to complete, I can zip through the fifteen candles as quickly as I want, but slowing down, and even stopping cold in my tracks, to study each candle before I proceed.
Take care,
Norm
Hadn’t even crossed my mind! Afterall, there are several hundred people in the UK over the age of 100 yrs that are still driving…
Time is not even an issue yet! 
100 years old and still driving? Think I’ll stay here and take my chances with the volcano! 
2 Likes
Hello again, Norm
Here’s a suggestion: Don’t limit yourself to just one moving average.
Be bold. Put a bunch of MA’s on your chart. It will calm your mind.
If you place 40 different moving averages on a chart — and then remove the candles —
you get something like this:
I did this several years ago, when I had a bit too much time on my hands.
1 Like
That’s great, and amazingly beautiful. Looks like some of the creatures I see when I go diving here. I’m sure it can be useful for less aesthetic endeavours, like forex trading. Worth thinking about.
Guess what. I just put your image on my computer desktop. Looks great! Thanks for the turn-on.
Norm
Aloha Clint and Dennis,
Clint,
Thank you much for pointing me to Dennis’ thread.
Dennis,
Your strong vs. weak analysis combined with what to look for as the pairs relate to the 200MA looks very promising. I’ll be reading your entire thread as well as your daily strong-weak analyses, and will definitely follow up on the charts.
For all of you eavesdroppers who’d like to check out Dennis’ thread, here it is: Trading the Trend with Strong Weak Analysis.
Thanks guys.
With much appreciation,
Norm
1 Like
Here’s a little article i found. Might be worth reading. For what it is worth.
I did a quick check on a 1min chart. Price does seem to respect 200MA. I guess it should work for the daily chart too.
MACD 200, 100, 70. identify potential bull or bear trade. 5 candlestick close above or below 200MA provide the entry.
Gotta stop here. My phone is down to 1%
PS: In addition, If on a 5min chart price is trading below 200MA , only look for a sell trade on the 1min chart. Vice versa.
Thanks Alphahavoc,
I saved the article. I’ll read it more closely for possible follow-up. “Possible” only because of time constraints.
Good screenshots. Very clear retests, bounces and breakthroughs.
Thanks and Take Care,
Norm
You’re referring to 200 SMA on a DAILY chart I assume…
To be honest I can’t give a good opinion on this other than to say that while it could be a good indicator of trend, since moving averages lag a lot, you have to watch carefully for changes…
For me, my main way of determining the larger trend is an oscillator on the monthly and weekly charts. I like using a Stochastic set at (15,5,5) or a custom indicator called RSIOMA. On the monthly chart, an oscillator is a quite significant indicator. Of course, you can just observe from the chart too whether a pair is mostly consolidating or trending.
Hi webguy7,
Thanks for the tip about RIOSOMA. Stochastics confirmed a trade for me on the D1, but price is taking a serious U-turn on me, even before the profit zone. RIOSOMA, however, gave no confirmation on the trade at any time; so based on this one observation, it may be a more dependable confirmation tool. I’ll keep an eye on it.
If you needed to choose between stochastics and RIOSOMA, which would you choose? Would you care to explain why?
Thanks,
Norm
I prefer RSIOMA on longer time frames and the Stochastic on lower. Other points: The signals from RSIOMA are more reliable, but lagging more. I change the setting on RSIOMA from 14-21 to 8-12. The stochastic displays divergence more clearly than RSIOMA. It depends partly upon the pair and time frame which is works better - back-trade to see. The stochastic usually needs more reasons and help from other indicators to be reliable… Cheers!
1 Like
My mentor uses 17/53/100/200
Thanks, webguy7, for your preference and for the suggested settings change.
At this point, I’m still keeping an eye on RSIOMA, and I’ll try out your settings.
With Appreciation,
Norm