GBPUSD
The GBPUSD pair fluctuates around 1.0840 level since yesterday, and continues to move within the correctional bearish channel, waiting to resume the bearish bias that its next main target located at 1.1625, supported by stochastic loss to the positive momentum clearly.
By taking a deeper look at the chart, we find that the price completed forming double top pattern that hast negative targets that surpass the above mentioned level to reach 1.1370 areas, to suggest the domination of the bearish trend on the longer term basis. Therefore, we are waiting for more decline in the upcoming sessions, supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, reminding you that it is important to hold below 1.1940 to achieve the waited targets.
EURJPY
The EURJPY pair didn’t succeed to exit the sideways range until this moment, to keep fluctuating between 145.5 resistance and 144 support.
The above chart shows that stochastic begins to provide the negative momentum, to increase the chances of forming new negative waves, and expect to crawl below the current support to reach many negative stations that might start at 143.25 followed by 142.2, to press on the moving average 55.
NATGAS
The US Energy Information Administration reported today that domestic supplies of natural gas decreased by-84 billion cubic feet for the week ended February 24 from -81 bcf in the previous week, while analysts’ expected drop of -80 billion cubic feet.
Still, it is much less than a decrease of 126 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average decline of 101 bcf as mild weather kept heating demand for the fuel low. Last week’s decrease cut stockpiles to 2.030 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 493 bcf higher than last year at this time and 359 bcf above the five-year average of 1.671 tcf.
USDCHF
The USDCHF pair traded with clear negativity yesterday, and ended trades near 0.9316, noticing that the price begins today with additional negativity to attack this level and attempt to confirm breaking it, which makes us prefer to stay aside until we get clearer signal for the next trend, through monitoring the price behavior according to the mentioned level.
Note that confirming breaking the mentioned support will press on the price to achieve more decline and return to the main bearish track, to head towards achieving negative targets that start at 0.9220 and extend to 0.9135, while consolidating above it will lead the price to resume the correctional bullish track that its next main target located at 0.9475.
EURUSD
The EURUSD pair begins today with additional positivity to surpass 1.0645 level and settles above it, which pushes the price to achieve more intraday gains, targeting testing 1.0745 as a next station, noting that breaching this level will push the price to continue rising and head towards 1.0800 followed by 1.0925 levels as next main targets.
Moving above the EMA50 supports the continuation of the expected bullish trend, while stochastic might cause some temporary sideways fluctuation before resuming the bullish bias. On the other hand, we should note that breaking 1.0645 and holding below it will stop the suggested bullish wave and press on the price to decline again.
GBPUSD
The GBPUSD pair rallied upwards to confirm breaching the correctional bearish channel’s resistance, which stops the correctional bearish trend and lead the price to attempt to regain the main bullish trend again, on its way to achieve positive targets that start at 1.2260 and extend to 1.2440.
Therefore, the bullish bias will be suggested for today, it might be preceded by some temporary sideways fluctuation affected by stochastic negativity, waiting to gather positive momentum that assists to push the price to achieve the expected targets. Note that breaking 1.2050 will put the price under intraday negative pressure that targets testing the most important support at 1.1940 before any new attempt to rise.
DE30
European indices launched today’s trading little changed after Fed and US Treasury stepped in to limit contagion risk from SVB collapse. However, issues may not be over as SVB is not the only bank with problems. Signature Bank has been shut down by regulators over the weekend due to systemic risk concerns. Meanwhile, another US bank may be facing collapse - First Republic Bank. This bank is trading 60% lower in US premarket session right now and it has dented moods on the markets following European cash session open.
German DAX slumped around 200 points during the first hour of the cash trading session. Index erased all of the overnight gains, dropped to the lowest level since March 2, 2023 and is now attempting to break below the 15,230 pts support zone at press time.
USDJPY
The USDJPY pair continued to decline strongly to reach the thresholds of the negative target mentioned in our last technical update at 133.30, starting today with additional negativity to support the chances of continuing the bearish bias in the upcoming sessions, noting that breaking the mentioned level will extend the bearish wave to reach 131.75 areas as a next main station.
Note that the continuation of the bearish wave depends on the price stability below 135.40, as breaching it will push the price to recover and head towards achieving gains that start by testing 137.70 areas.
US30
US index futures traded significantly higher this morning after the Fed and US Treasury stepped in to limit contagion risk from SVB collapse. Emergency lending program was announced that will allow banks to access liquidity needed to service deposits. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen approved necessary decisions assuring that bank deposits are protected and announced that all depositors will be able to access. While broad market performance on Monday morning showed that the situation has calmed, problems may not be over yet. SVB collapsed and FDIC took control over it while Signature Bank was shut down by regulators due to systemic risk following SVB collapse. However, another bank is rumored to be close to collapsing - First Republic Bank. Shares of this bank are trading 60% lower in premarket today and it is said to be the next in-line should the domino effect continue. Slump in First Republic Bank shares are dragging down the whole market with DAX and other European blue chips indices trading 2-3% lower on the day. US equity futures erased all of the gains and are now trading flat or slightly lower compared to Friday’s closing prices.
Taking a look at Dow Jones futures chart (US30) at D1 interval, we can see that all of the gains made earlier today were erased already and now the index is trading lower. The index tested resistance zone marked with 38.2% retracement and 200-session moving average this morning but has pulled back since and is now testing support zone ranging around 31,750 pts area.
USDCHF
The USDCHF pair broke 0.9316 level strongly to complete forming double top pattern that its signs appear on the chart, to surpass the negative target mentioned in our last report at 0.9220 and opens the way to continue the decline towards 0.9135 areas, waiting for more bearish bias in the upcoming sessions.
Note that surpassing the last level will push the price to visit the recently recorded low at 0.9060, while breaching 0.9220 will stop the negative scenario and push the price to start recovery attempts that target testing 0.9316 level initially.
EURUSD
The EURUSD pair found solid resistance at 1.0745 and couldn’t manage to breach it, to start providing negative trades by today’s open, noticing that stochastic shows negative signals that press on the price to decline.
Therefore, we expect to witness bearish bias in the upcoming sessions, and the targets begin at 1.0620 and extend to 1.0515 after surpassing the previous level, noting that breaking 1.0690 will ease the mission of achieving the waited targets. Note that breaching 1.0745 will stop the suggested negative scenario and lead the price to achieve new gains that reach 1.0800 followed by 1.0925.
US2000
- US indices finished yesterday’s trading lower, following a volatile session. S&P 500 dropped 0.15%, Dow Jones moved 0.28% lower and Russell 2000 slumped 1.60%. Nasdaq was outperformer and gained 0.45%
- Some relief can be spotted on the bond markets with US 2-year yield climbing 15 basis points today, following an over-100 basis point slump yesterday. 2-year US yield sits around 4.17-4.18% today
- Indices from Asia-Pacific traded lower today. Nikkei plunged 2.2%, S&P/ASX 200 moved 1.4% lower, Kospi slumped 2.5% and Nifty 50 traded 0.6% down. Indices from China traded 0.4-2.2% lower
- DAX futures point to a flat opening of the European cash session
- Fed Chair Powell said that thorough, transparent and swift review of SVB failure is needed. Results of the review will be published at the beginning of May
- Canadian regulator will boost monitoring and begin daily check-ins with domestic banks in an attempt to prevent SVB-like banking collapse in Canada
- Suzuki, finance minister of Japan, said that he does not expect significant financial impact from SVB collapse on Japanese financial system
- US National Security Adviser Sullivan said that the Biden-Xi phone call will take place after the Chinese National Party Congress ends. No comment on topics to be discussed was offered
- Nomura expects Fed to deliver a 25 bp rate cut and QT pause announcement at next week’s FOMC meeting. BlackRock does not expect FOMC to halt rate hike cycle as response to SVB was swift, decisive and situation is not repeat of 2008
- According to Global Times report, Chinese authorities are considering increasing retirement age as the country is beginning to struggle with rapidly aging population
- South China Morning Post reports that Russia has agreed to 60-day extension to Russia-Ukraine grain deal
- Australian household spending dropped 01.% MoM in February
- Cryptocurrencies are trading relatively little changed following yesterday’s rally. Bitcoin gains 1%, Ethereum drops 0.2% and Dogecoin traded 0.7% lower
- Oil is trading 0.8-0.9% lower this morning while gold drops 0.1%
- NZD and CAD are the best performing major currencies while JPY and EUR lag the most
Russell 2000 (US2000) was the worst performing major Wall Street index yesterday, dropping over 1.5%. As fallout from SVB collapse is likely to be limited to smaller banks, small-cap index is taking a much bigger hit than S&P 500 or Dow Jones.
GBPUSD
The GBPUSD pair resumed its positive trades to test 1.2200 barrier, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bullish trend, waiting for more rise to visit 1.2260 level that represents our next target.
The EMA50 supports the price from below, and surpassing the targeted level will push the price to 1.2440 as a next main station, while stochastic negativity might cause some temporary sideways fluctuation before rising again. Holding above 1.2070 represents the first condition to continue the bullish wave, as breaking it represents negative factor that will press on the price to visit 1.1940 initially.
USDJPY
The USDJPY pair surpassed 133.30 level and approached 132.00 barrier, but it bounced bullishly to settle around the first level, noticing that the price begins today positively to move away from this level, which hints heading to start bullish wave that we expect to target 135.40 areas initially.
Therefore, the bullish bias will be suggested for today, supported by stochastic positivity that appears on the four hours’ time frame, being aware that breaking 133.30 will stop the expected rise and press on the price to suffer additional losses that reach 131.75 as a next negative target.
Bitcoin
CPI inflation data from the United States for February was released today at 12:30 pm GMT and came in-line with market expectations. Headline CPI decelerated from 6.4 to 6.0% YoY (exp. 6.0% YoY) while core gauge moved from 5.6 to 5.5% YoY (exp. 5.5% YoY). Reaction of the FX and equity markets was fairly muted - after initial volatile up and down swings, indices moved slightly higher and USD weakened. However, scale of the moves on USD and stock markets is relatively small. Much more action can be seen on the cryptocurrency market with Bitcoin testing $26,000 mark following the release.
Taking a look at BITCOIN chart at D1 interval, we can see that the cryptocurrency is trading higher for the third day in a row and, just as it was the case yesterday and on Sunday, the move is quite big. Bitcoin trades almost 9% higher on the day and makes a break above $26,000 mark for the first time in 9 months! Other cryptocurrencies are also trading higher with Ethereum adding 5% and Dogecoin trading over 4% higher.
USDCHF
The USDCHF pair continued to decline to surpass our waited target at 0.9135 and reach few pips away from the recently recorded low at 0.9060, noticing that the price begins to rebound bullishly to build bullish wave that we expect to target 0.9220 followed by 0.9316 levels as next positive stations.
Therefore, the bullish bias will be expected for today, supported by stochastic positivity, noting that breaking 0.9060 will stop the expected rise and press on the price to resume the main bearish wave.
EURUSD
The EURUSD pair begins today with clear positivity to attack 1.0745 level and attempts to breach it, which hints heading to achieve new gains in the upcoming sessions, while it faces negative pressure by stochastic that might hinder the mission to rise.
Therefore, we prefer to stay aside until the price confirms its situation according to the mentioned level followed by detecting its next destination clearly, noting that the contradiction between the technical factors provides another reason for neutrality. Note that confirming breaching 1.0745 will push the price to achieve positive targets that start at 1.0800 and extend to 1.0925, while consolidating below it will press on the price to resume the bearish wave that targets 1.0620 followed by 1.0515 as next main stations.
Oil
On Tuesday, the market could see a drop in risk aversion
The recent panic in the stock market, which was linked to the problems of the banking sector in the USA, has been halted
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The main stock indices from the Old Continent ended the session sharply higher
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The DAX gained 1.83%, while the French CAC40 added 1.86% and London’s FTSE closed 1.17% higher. Poland’s WIG20 ended the session slightly above the benchmark +0.11%
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DE30 quotations reached key short-term resistance at 15280 points
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Today’s CPI inflation data from the US was in line with expectations and showed that prices rose by 0.4% in February after accelerating by 0.5% in January. In contrast, annualised CPI was 6.0% in February, the smallest annual price increase since September 2021. (previously 6.4%). The underlying CPI was also in line with expectations.
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Wall Street’s major stock indices traded higher. The Nasdaq is up 1.5% at the time of preparing this commentary with the S&P500 and Dow Jones adding 1.05% and 0.45% respectively.
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Apple halts bonus payments, Meta Platforms announces job cuts
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Tuesday saw massive declines in crude oil. OPEC raised its forecast for crude demand growth in CHINA, but left the forecast unchanged when it came to global demand, explaining this by concerns about global economic growth. OIL.WTI quotes are losing more than 5%, with OIL down 4.5% and falling below the $77 per barrel level.
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In the forex market today, we are seeing an outflow into commodity currencies, including the Canadian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar. The Japanese yen is performing poorly. The EURUSD pair maintains bullish momentum and struggles to break out above the resistance level near 1.0750 on a sustained basis.
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Tuesday brought a continuation of the increases in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin’s quotations broke out with momentum above the USD 25,000 level, which is an important resistance in the medium term. Etherum’s price, on the other hand, jumped above $1,750.
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At 08:40 pm GMT, we will learn API data on oil stocks, and at 09:20 pm GMT, Bowman from the Fed will speak
OIL.WTI quotes have overcome an internal trendline, which could herald an attack on the December minimum at $70 per barrel.
GBPUSD
The GBPUSD pair continues to fluctuate within sideways and tight track since yesterday, noticing that stochastic gets rid of its negative momentum to approach the oversold areas, waiting to motive the price to resume the bullish trend that its next targets located at 1.2260 followed by 1.2440.
The EMA50 continues to support the suggested bullish wave, which will remain valid unless breaking 1.2070 and holding below it.
USDJPY
The USDJPY pair settles around 134.00 level since yesterday, affected by stochastic negativity that slows the intraday bullish wave, waiting to resume the rise and achieve our positive targets that start at 135.40 and extend to 137.70 after surpassing the previous level.
Therefore, we will keep our bullish overview conditioned by the price stability above 133.30, as breaking it will put the price under the negative pressure again, to head towards visiting 131.75 areas initially.