Solid ECN – The U.S. Dollar is leading in today’s trading against the pound sterling, with the GBPUSD pair trading around 1.263. The Ichimoku cloud supports this price area. From a technical standpoint, for the downtrend to continue, bears must stabilize the price below this level. Although technical indicators support a bearish scenario, there is still a chance for the bulls to take control, especially if the 1.2611 level holds firm.
In conclusion, the price must fall below the cloud for the bear market to extend further. Otherwise, we will likely witness the GBPUSD pair rise again, aiming for the 1.2709 resistance level.
The standard interest rate for 30-year fixed mortgages with standard loan amounts (up to $766,550) fell slightly by 0.02% to 7.04% for the week ending February 23, 2024, as reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association. This figure is 0.33% above what it was a year ago. Mike Fratantoni, the chief economist at MBA, noted in a statement that the recent surge in rates has led to a reduction in mortgage applications, especially impacting those applying for FHA and VA refinancing loans.
Solid ECN – As expected, the USDJPY price rose from the 150.0 mark, maintaining a bullish trend due to this support from the Ichimoku cloud and the bullish channel. For the pair to continue its growth, the bulls must break above the 150.88 resistance.
Conversely, the bull market could be invalidated if the price dips below the cloud, specifically below the 150.0 mark.
Solid ECN – Gold prices slightly increased to about $2,035 per ounce this Wednesday, influenced by the decline in yields. This change comes as traders evaluate the potential for more accessible monetary policies before releasing important US inflation data tomorrow.
Additionally, the financial community is keeping a close eye on the speeches from various Federal Reserve officials. Regarding broader economic indicators, the US economy expanded by 3.2% in the fourth quarter, a bit lower than the initially predicted 3.3%, demonstrating a robust financial framework.
Investors predict that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rates in March and May, with a more than half likelihood of a rate reduction by June. In other news, the economic mood in the Eurozone has taken a downturn in February, falling below expectations and indicating a drop in consumer demand.
Solid ECN – The GBPJPY currency pair recently declined from the upper line of its bullish wedge pattern at the 191.0 mark. Subsequently, the pair tested the lower band and bounced back from 190.2, and it currently trades around 190.6.
The primary trend remains bullish, but the technical indicators provide mixed signals. On one hand, the RSI indicator suggests continuing the bull market. On the other hand, the Awesome Oscillator bars have turned red and are approaching the signal line, indicating potential caution. Based on the primary GBPJPY trend, we can predict that the uptick momentum will likely resume if the pair maintains its position within the wedge’s boundaries.
Even if the price dips below the 190.2 level, considered a resistance point, the Ichimoku cloud emerges as the next significant barrier for the sellers.
From a technical standpoint, as long as the price remains above the cloud, our technical analysis remains unchanged. This situation suggests a potential for continued bullish behavior, securing any significant market shifts.
Solid ECN – As anticipated, the pound sterling has once again risen from the support zone of the Ichimoku cloud, the 1.2621 mark. Today, the technical indicators are providing a clearer signal. With the RSI flipping above the median line and the appearance of green bars on the awesome oscillator, we can forecast that the bull market will likely expand further.
The first significant milestone for the bulls is reaching the February high of 1.2709. Interestingly, this resistance level is reinforced by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, adding to its significance.
However, it’s important to note that if the GBPUSD price falls below the cloud, the validity of the bull market could be called into question. This is a crucial point to remember as we monitor market trends.
Solid ECN – The U.S. dollar broke below the ascending bullish channel in yesterday’s trading session against the Australian dollar. Interestingly, the pair tested the broken support, which now acts as resistance, specifically at the 50% Fibonacci level or the 0.6521 mark.
The technical indicators give mixed signals: the RSI is bearish, while the Awesome Oscillator signals a bull market.
Based on the price action, the 50% Fibonacci level plays as resistance, and it is expected for the downtrend to extend to the 78.6% Fibonacci support, followed by the February low at 0.6442.
The bearish outlook for the AUD/USD pair should be invalidated if the price stabilizes itself above the 50% Fibonacci level.
Solid ECN – The yellow metal is testing the $2,037 mark. What distinguishes this resistance area is its conjunction with the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the descending trendline, depicted in blue.
Upon examining the price action, we observe that the divergence in the awesome oscillator couldn’t initiate a shift in the market. Consequently, the Gold price remained above the 50% Fibonacci level and the Ichimoku cloud. With the RSI indicator hovering above the 50 lines, it is likely for the price to make a bullish breakout and climb to the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance, corresponding to the $2,048 mark.
On the other hand, if the XAU/USD price dips and stabilizes below the 50% Fibonacci support, the bullish analysis will be invalidated. In such a scenario, the price might experience a further decline to the 38.2% level.
Solid ECN – The USDJPY is experiencing significant downward momentum in today’s trading session. The pair has crossed below the Ichimoku cloud and is trading around 149.2 at the time of writing. Interestingly, the RSI indicator has entered the oversold area below 30. Therefore, considering the primary trend is bullish, the price might test the previously broken support, the Ichimoku cloud.
From a technical standpoint, the data from the USDJPY 4-hour chart indicates that the uptrend will be on pause for a while, and the decline will likely extend to the 23.6% Fibonacci support, corresponding to the 148.3 mark.
On the flip side, bulls must push the price above the Ichimoku cloud again for the uptrend to continue.
Solid ECN – Silver’s price rose above $22.5 per ounce, thanks to a weaker US dollar, as market players reacted positively to new economic data from the US. The Federal Reserve closely monitors the core PCE price index, which increased by 0.4% from January last month, aligning with analysts’ predictions.
Furthermore, the year-on-year rates have hit their lowest point since 2021, reinforcing the view that inflation is staying on its expected path. In other developments, initial jobless claims were slightly higher than expected, reducing concerns over an overly tight job market. Market participants anticipate 79 basis points in Fed rate cuts in 2023, with expectations for the initial reduction in June. As borrowing costs fall, the attractiveness of non-income-generating assets like silver increases.
Solid ECN – Gold prices remained above $2,040 an ounce last Friday, marking the second week of gains. This trend follows the latest U.S. inflation data, which met expectations and continued to support the anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate reductions this year. The recent data revealed that core PCE prices in the U.S., an inflation measure closely watched by the Fed, increased by 0.4% month-over-month in January. This is a jump from the 0.1% rise seen in December, aligning with forecasts.
Furthermore, New York Fed President John Williams commented that he anticipates the central bank will lower interest rates later in the year, driven by decreasing inflation and a stable economy. He also mentioned that he doesn’t foresee circumstances requiring another Fed rate hike.
Currently, the market anticipates roughly a two-thirds likelihood of a Fed rate reduction in June, with expectations for no changes in March and May.
Solid ECN – On Monday, the price of gold remained steady at around $2,080 per ounce, following a nearly 2% increase the day before. This was mainly due to a fall in both the US dollar and Treasury yields, which happened in response to disappointing economic indicators from the US. Specifically, recent reports revealed that the country’s manufacturing sector has been shrinking for 16 months as of February.
Additionally, a survey from the University of Michigan indicated consumer confidence last month was lower than predicted. Regarding interest rates, John Williams of the New York Fed anticipates reductions later this year, although not all officials agree to such a change. Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming events: they are eagerly awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s forthcoming testimony to Congress for any signs of changes in monetary policy. They are also looking for essential updates on US employment and manufacturing activity.
Solid ECN – The EURUSD is trading around 1.0856, slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Interestingly, the bulls have managed to break above the bearish channel. However, Euro buyers must overcome the 1.0865 barrier for the uptrend to continue. The technical indicators support a bullish market, with the RSI hovering above 50 and the Awesome Oscillator bars turning green and rising above the signal line.
From a technical standpoint, the bulls will likely target the 50% Fibonacci retracement level if they can stabilize the price above 1.0865.
Conversely, if the EURUSD price falls below the 1.0796 mark, representing the 23.6% Fibonacci support, the decline that began in December 2023 will likely resume.
Solid ECN – The pound sterling is stabilizing at around 1.267 against the U.S. dollar, above the 50 EMA but slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance. The GBPUSD daily chart shows that the pair has traded sideways since mid-November 2023.
While the technical indicators don’t provide anything significant, from a technical standpoint, the primary trend is bullish. As long as the pair trades above the ascending trendline, depicted in blue, we expect the market to surpass the 1.270 barrier and aim for the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance.
Conversely, the bearish channel will remain valid if the price falls below the ascending trendline. In this scenario, the next target for the sellers would be the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
Solid ECN – The Australian dollar has crossed below the 0.648 resistance level against the U.S. Dollar. The pair bounced from the 78.6% Fibonacci support level and is trading at approximately 0.648 at the time of writing. Upon examining the AUDUSD 4-hour chart, we notice that the price is declining within the bearish channel. The technical indicators support the primary trend, with the RSI hovering below 50, and the Awesome Oscillator bars are red and below the signal line.
Currently, the pair is experiencing a pullback from the aforementioned Fibonacci level, which may extend to the 61.8% resistance level, followed by the upper band of the flag.
From a technical standpoint, the AUDUSD is in a bear market, and the downtrend will likely continue. The next target could be 0.6442, the lower low of February.
Conversely, the bear market should be considered invalid if the AUDUSD price rises above 0.6524, above the 50% Fibonacci resistance level.
Solid ECN – The U.S. oil price hovers around $78 in today’s trading session. The black gold experienced a dip on March 1st after climbing as high as $80 per barrel. The Ichimoku cloud and the ascending trendline have prevented further declines, yet the bear market has not pushed the price down to as low as $77.7.
Technical indicators match the recent price decrease. The RSI indicator and the Awesome Oscillator have dipped below the signal line. From a technical standpoint, the bearish pressure may increase if the price falls below the ascending trendline, depicted in blue.
Conversely, given the primary bullish trend, if the ascending trendline holds steady, the oil price could see a new bullish wave aiming for March’s highs, followed by the $82 mark.
Solid ECN – The USDJPY pair is consolidating in a narrow area between the 149.5 support and 150.8 resistance. The RSI indicator shows divergence, which could be interpreted as a possible trend reversal. However, the decline halted, and the bears could not close below the 149.5 support. Consequently, the price stepped back into the range area.
From a technical standpoint, the primary trend is bullish as long as the pair trades inside the bullish flag and above the 23.6% Fibonacci support. For the uptrend to continue, the price should stabilize itself above 150.8. In this scenario, the pair will likely target the upper band of the flag.
Going short on USDJPY is not recommended, considering the robust bullish bias on the trend direction. Therefore, waiting for a buying opportunity is less risky than going short.
Solid ECN – The EURUSD currency pair is stabilizing itself outside the previously broken bearish channel. Currently, the pair trades slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance level, around 1.086. For the uptrend to continue, the bulls must overcome the 1.0865 barrier. This resistance level has been holding the Euro from further growth against the U.S. Dollar since February 22.
Conversely, if the EURUSD price falls below the 50 EMA, the decline would likely target the 1.0796 support level, the 23.6% Fibonacci mark. If this scenario plays out, the sellers will find themselves in the bearish flag again, and the push will likely go deeper, aiming for the February low.
Solid ECN – The GBPUSD currency pair has climbed above 1.2709, exceeding the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level. RSI and Awesome Oscillator support this rise, which suggests continuing the trend. The RSI has room to reach the 70 level, which can be interpreted as the market not being overbought yet. This indicates that the pound sterling will likely target the bullish channel’s upper band against the U.S. dollar.
Please note that the bull market will remain valid if the pair trades above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
The Awesome Oscillator shows optimistic signs of a trend reversal, having flipped above the signal line. Additionally, the RSI hovers above 50, another cue for continuing the uptick momentum from 0.6476. This minor area supports the bullish momentum. It is worth noting that the price needs to stay above this level for further growth. The bull market will likely aim for the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance level in this scenario.
Conversely, the bullish outlook should be invalidated if the AUDUSD price dips below 0.6511.
