Gold Price Stability Amid Federal Reserve Rate Cut Speculation
Solid ECN – On Friday, the price of gold remained stable, hovering around $2,160 per ounce. This marks its first decrease after three weeks of gains. The change comes amid uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. This uncertainty is due to unexpectedly high Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data, coupled with a decrease in initial jobless claims.
These factors made investors rethink their previous expectations for more accessible monetary policies. Consequently, the likelihood of the Fed reducing rates in June has fallen to about 60% from the 74% estimated just last week. This shift has made gold, which does not yield interest, less attractive to investors.
However, gold’s price is still near record highs, as it serves as a protective investment against inflation and increasing geopolitical tensions, especially after Russia decides to position its tactical nuclear weapons closer to NATO territories.
Oil Prices Surge Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Indicators
Solid ECN – WTI crude futures increased to over $81 per barrel on Monday, building on the previous week’s growth as ongoing geopolitical tensions fuel worries about oil supply. In the past week, Ukraine intensified its drone attacks on Russian oil facilities, causing a shutdown of approximately 7% of Russia’s refining capabilities in the first quarter, as per a Reuters report.
Furthermore, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced intentions to expand into the Gaza Strip’s Rafah region, diminishing the likelihood of reaching a peace deal. Additionally, this week, investors are keenly observing the decisions on monetary policy by leading central banks for signs that might indicate when interest rate reductions will occur. Last week saw a near 4% rise in oil prices following an optimistic demand forecast by the International Energy Agency, which also anticipates a minor shortfall in supply for the year.
AUDUSD’s Resilience: A Test Against Ichimoku Cloud Resistance
Solid ECN – The Australian dollar rebounded from the 38.2% Fibonacci support level against the U.S. dollar in today’s trading session. The pair is now testing the Ichimoku cloud as resistance, close to the EMA 50. The Awesome Oscillator bars are green, while the RSI remains below 50, giving mixed signals. Meanwhile, the ADX indicator has dropped to level 20, which can be interpreted as a slowdown in the trend.
From a technical standpoint, the bounce could extend to the upper band of the bearish flag depicted in red. However, as long as the AUDUSD price remains within the flag, the 23.6% Fibonacci level will likely be the next target.
The bear market should be invalidated if the price stabilizes itself above the cloud.
USDJPY at the Crossroads of Overbought Conditions
Solid ECN – The Japanese currency has again become bearish against the U.S. Dollar. As shown on the USDJPY 4-hour chart, the American currency has risen above the Ichimoku cloud and is trading at about 149.1 as of this writing.
Currently, the pair is testing the 61.8% Fibonacci support while the RSI indicator is about to enter the overbought area. Therefore, it is not recommended to go long on the U.S. currency in a saturated market; it is better to wait for the pair to form new higher lows and lower highs.
That said, with the Awesome Oscillator’s red bars, there is a high chance for the market to drop to the ascending trendline in red. This level of support can provide a decent entry point to join the bull market.
Conversely, the bull market should be invalidated if the price falls below the 148.8 mark.
Rising Russian Crude Oil Prices and Global Impacts
Solid ECN – Russian Urals crude oil prices have recently climbed above $77 a barrel, approaching the high levels seen in October, and are following the general upward trend of global oil prices. Meanwhile, China is on track to bring in a historically high volume of Russian oil this month, although the quantity heading to India has fallen, as reported by Bloomberg.
Despite being targeted by recent attacks, Russia aims to increase its oil exports via western ports, thanks to extra shipments from companies like Rosneft and Tatneft. In December 2022, a price limit of $60 per barrel was set on Russian oil by the European Union, the G7 nations, and Australia. This measure aims to cut down the funding Russia receives for military operations in Ukraine.
WTI Crude Oil Prices Soar Amid Global Supply and Demand Dynamics
Solid ECN – WTI crude oil prices remained above $82 per barrel on Tuesday, close to their peak since the start of November, boosted by concerns about supply. The reasons include Ukraine’s recent drone attacks on three of Russia’s oil refineries, which represent over 10% of Russia’s oil refining capability. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, Iraq has said it will cut back its oil exports to 3.3 million barrels per day in the upcoming months to make up for going over its OPEC+ limit since January.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia’s oil exports dropped for the second month in a row, reaching 6.297 million barrels per day in January, down slightly from December. On the other side, demand appears strong, with China, a major oil buyer, showing solid growth in industrial output and retail sales. The overall global demand for oil is also expected to remain robust this year.
USDCHF Hits New Heights Post-Wedge Breakout
The U.S. Dollar broke out from the wedge pattern in today’s trading session against the Swiss franc and is testing the 0.889 barrier as of writing.
The Awesome Oscillator signals divergence, which could be interpreted as a sign that a consolidation phase is likely on the way. Therefore, the price might dip to 0.885 before a new bullish wave begins. Interestingly, the RSI indicator is nearing the overbought zone, signaling the same as the AO.
From a technical standpoint, the ascending trendline in red supports the bull market. As long as the pair trades above this level, the primary trend will remain an uptrend. In this scenario, the market will likely surpass the 0.889 resistance and aim for the next target, the 0.895 mark.
P.S. For the uptrend to resume, the market must pass and stabilize the price above the 0.889 mark.
BTCUSD Hits April Low: What’s Next for Bitcoin Prices?
Solid ECN – Bitcoin flipped below the Ichimoku cloud in last week’s trading session. The decline continued this week, and today BTCUSD hit a new low for April, trading below the $64,400 mark. Interestingly, the RSI and the Awesome Oscillator also point to a bear market. In addition to RSI and Ao, the ADX climbs to 40, signifying that the downtrend is strengthening.
From a technical standpoint, the EMA 50 and the upper band of the bearish channel, marked in red, act as resistance levels. If Bitcoin’s price remains below $67,000, the next target is likely the $60,000 mark.
Conversely, for the uptrend to resume, the price must cross above the EMA 50 and maintain its position above it.
Noteworthy
It’s important to note that the primary market is bullish, and the current downward momentum is considered a consolidation phase. During this phase, major players collect profits by sweeping the floor from retail traders.
Euro Drops as ECB Considers June Rate Cut Amid Slow Growth
Solid ECN – The euro fell toward the $1.08 mark, its lowest since March 1st, as investors processed reports of slower wage increases and cautious remarks from some European Central Bank (ECB) officials. They also looked forward to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Wednesday. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated on Tuesday that the bank might consider lowering interest rates in June, highlighting the need for more information before changing policies.
ECB President Christine Lagarde mentioned possibly lowering rates earlier in the month due to falling inflation. The ECB’s chief economist, Philip Lane, suggested a rate cut could come in the second quarter. Significantly, central bank leaders from Spain, the Netherlands, Ireland, Greece, and Slovakia, among the ECB’s 26 Governing Council members, supported a decision in June.
EURUSD Hits New Low: Analyzing the Latest Bearish Wave
Solid ECN – In today’s trading session, the European currency dipped toward the 1.08 mark, its lowest since March 1st, against the U.S. Dollar. The drop was expected from a technical perspective because the bears formed an inverted hammer clinging to the EMA 50 yesterday. The failed attempt to cross above the moving average has led the EURUSD price to experience a new bearish wave.
As of this writing, the pair is testing the lower band of the bearish flag. The RSI indicator hovers in the oversold area; therefore, the market might make corrections below the EMA 50 before a new wave emerges.
From a technical standpoint, the primary market is dominated by bears if the price is kept below the cloud. Due to the RSI being in the oversold zone, we suggest waiting for the price to show some correction before joining the bear market. With the price below the mentioned resistance areas, the 23.6% Fibonacci support could be the next target.
The price must flip and stabilize itself above the cloud for the bear market to be deemed invalid.
Recent Trends in NZDUSD
Solid ECN – The New Zealand dollar fell below $0.605, reaching close to its four-month low following the Australian dollar’s downturn. This happened after the Reserve Bank of Australia decided not to change interest rates, a decision many anticipated. They also removed their previous caution against ruling out future rate hikes. Meanwhile, the Kiwi dollar faced additional pressure due to the upcoming policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve. There’s the worry that persistently high inflation in the US might postpone any cuts in Fed rates.
Furthermore, within New Zealand, the expectation is growing that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may reduce its policy rates starting in August as the rise in prices begins to slow down. As investors wait, they are particularly interested in the upcoming report on the country’s economic growth, hoping it will offer more clarity.
Euro Rises as Central Banks Discuss Future Rate Cuts
On Wednesday, the euro climbed to $1.09, bouncing back from its lowest point in two weeks after the Federal Reserve decided not to change its plans for interest rate reductions in 2024. The Fed did not alter interest rates in March, meeting expectations, and hinted at three possible decreases later in the year. Also, the ECB’s President Lagarde emphasized in an earlier meeting that they would look at reducing rates in June.
She added a note of caution, stating that the European Central Bank wouldn’t lock itself into a set number of cuts, as future decisions will be based on the latest data. Central bank leaders from five countries—Spain, the Netherlands, Ireland, Greece, and Slovakia—have expressed their support for action in June.
NZDUSD Struggles at the Key 0.609 Mark
Solid ECN – In today’s trading session, the NZDUSD currency pair has risen from the 0.602 resistance area and is currently testing the 50-day EMA at the 0.609 mark.
The Awesome Oscillator has predicted the uptick in the momentum of the New Zealand dollar, as evidenced by the divergence shown in the 4-hour chart. At the time of writing, the U.S. dollar drives the price towards the 0.606 resistance, which aligns with the lower high of March 4 and the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance.
From a technical perspective, the primary trend remains bearish as long as the pair continues to trade below the descending red trendline. In this scenario, the bear market is likely to persist, and a break below the 23.6% Fibonacci support could accelerate the downtrend.
However, if the NZDUSD stabilizes above the 50% Fibonacci resistance, it would invalidate the bear market.
GBPJPY: Potential Entry Points Amid AO Divergence
Solid ECN – In the current trading session, the GBP has reached a new high of 193.5 against the Japanese Yen. This peak aligns with the upper band of the bullish flag. Notably, the RSI indicator is nearing the overbought zone and is declining below 70 as of writing. Alongside the RSI, the Awesome Oscillator signals a divergence, suggesting a new consolidation phase may be imminent.
Consequently, the GBPJPY price could drop to 191.3, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci support level, before initiating a new bullish wave.
These two levels offer a suitable entry point for participating in the bull market. Please be aware that the bull market will only be invalidated if the price stabilizes below the 50-day EMA.
British Pound Falls Amid Economic Challenges in the UK
Solid ECN – The British pound dropped to about $1.26, marking its lowest point since February 19th. This happened because people in the UK stopped spending more in February, and the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, suggested there might be cuts in interest rates later this year. The Office for National Statistics reported that shopping numbers in the UK didn’t change last month.
This was a significant change from January’s 3.6% increase and was different from what people thought would happen; they expected a 0.3% drop. At the same time, Bailey did say there were signs that prices were going up less quickly, but he also said it’s essential to be sure before making decisions about how to handle the situation.
The Bank of England decided to keep the cost of borrowing money very high, at 5.25%, the highest it’s been in 16 years. They made this decision with almost everyone agreeing, even though two people changed their minds about wanting to increase it. This choice was made after seeing that prices weren’t rising as fast as before, which hasn’t happened in over two years, but prices are still higher than the bank wants.
EURUSD: Navigating the Bear Market and Identifying Entry Points
Solid ECN – The European currency experienced a significant decline against the U.S. Dollar after failing to maintain its position above the Ichimoku cloud on March 21. The pair is currently trading around 1.081 and is nearing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, coinciding with the 1.079 support level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) still has room to enter the oversold territory, suggesting that the decline may continue, potentially dipping below the 30 level as the market approaches the Fibonacci level.
From a technical standpoint, we are currently in a bear market. However, the 23.6% Fibonacci support level may provide a good entry point for bullish traders looking to capitalize on a potential pullback. The rebound is anticipated to start around the 1.079 level and extend to 1.083.
We recommend closely monitoring the EURUSD price action, examining candlestick patterns near the Fibonacci level mentioned above, and adjusting trading strategies accordingly.
USDJPY: November 2023 Highs Revisited, Consolidation Ahead?
Solid ECN – The U.S. Dollar has reached the November 2023 high against the Japanese Yen, hitting the 151.9 mark for the second time this week. However, this time, a long wick candlestick pattern has emerged on the USDJPY 4-hour chart.
Additionally, the Awesome Oscillator shows a divergence in its bars, which could signal an imminent consolidation phase. This could drive the price down to the 150.2 mark, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci support level, which the 50 EMA supports. These levels provide favorable entry points for retail traders looking to join the primary upward trend.
Conversely, the 151.8 hard resistance level must be breached for the uptrend to continue.
Gold Prices Near Record Highs Amid Rate Cut Expectations
Solid ECN – On Monday, the price of gold remained steady around $2,175, nearing its record high of $2,185 set on March 20th. This stability comes amid increasing bets on the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates. Recently, the Fed kept its forecast, expecting to lower rates three times in 2024, making gold more attractive. Moreover, investors now believe there’s over a 70% likelihood that the Fed will cut rates in June, a jump from the 55% probability anticipated before their latest meeting.
This week, all eyes are on important U.S. inflation data and speeches from several Federal Reserve officials for further indications of future monetary policies. Additionally, ongoing conflicts in Russia and the Middle East support gold’s status as a reliable safe-haven asset.
Gold Prices Surge Amid Global Tensions
Solid ECN – On Tuesday, the price of gold climbed to a new peak, approximately $2,190 per ounce. This increase was mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar. Investors are anticipating rate cuts, especially with the upcoming US PCE price index report expected this Friday. Following last week’s announcement by the Federal Reserve, which kept its prediction of three interest rate cuts for the year, gold became more attractive.
However, February saw better-than-expected US durable goods orders, and various Federal Reserve officials have voiced concerns regarding persistent inflation and a strong economy. Currently, there’s a roughly 70% expectation among markets that the Federal Reserve will begin to lower rates in June, a notable increase from the 55% likelihood anticipated before their last meeting.
Additionally, gold’s status as a secure asset is bolstered by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, underscored by the UN Security Council’s call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.
Silver Prices Hold Steady as Investors Eye Fed Moves
Solid ECN—Silver prices have stabilized above $24.5 per ounce after hitting almost a one-year high on March 20th. This happens while investors wait for speeches from the Federal Reserve’s officials and the key PCE inflation data this week. These events will help them predict if the U.S. will start easing its monetary policy soon. Before this, the U.S.'s main financial authority decided not to change its plan for three interest rate decreases in 2024.
This decision made silver and similar assets without yield more attractive. Since their last meeting, the likelihood of reducing interest rates in June has increased to about 70% from the previous 55%. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank was among the first big banks to begin reducing its policies in Europe. Silver continues to be supported as a safeguard against global political tensions, mainly due to ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Recently, Russia has significantly attacked Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
