Key Indicators Suggest EUR/USD Consolidation
Solid ECN—The EUR/USD downtrend cooled near the 1.080 resistance, while the awesome oscillator signals divergence. This development in the technical indicators means the market might step into a consolidation phase, or the trend might reverse from this point.
Additionally, the market is not oversold, as the stochastic and RSI hover above 30 and 20, respectively.
Therefore, we suggest retail traders wait patiently for the EUR/USD price to consolidate near the 50-period simple moving average. They should also monitor the 1.086 resistance area for bearish candlestick patterns or use a breakout strategy if the price exceeds 1.086.
GBP/USD: Golden Cross Signals Potential Trend Reversal
Solid ECN—The 50 and 100-period moving averages form a golden cross in the GBP/USD currency pair, suggesting a potential reversal from a bull market to a bear market. Additionally, the pair trades within a bearish channel, with bullish candlesticks appearing weaker and smaller than their bearish counterparts.
However, the Awesome Oscillator indicates divergence, which may signal that the pair could consolidate before resuming its downtrend. In this scenario, the GBP/USD price might rise to test the 100-simple moving average, approximately at 1.291. Traders and investors should closely monitor the 1.2911 resistance area for bearish signals.
Conversely, the bear market outlook would be invalidated if the GBP/USD price breaks above the key resistance level at 1.2941.
Oversold AUD/USD: Key Levels and Potential Breakout
Solid ECN—The AUD/USD pair is consolidating within a narrow range between the immediate support at 0.651 and the immediate resistance at 0.656.
The stochastic oscillator has been deep in the oversold territory for four consecutive days, indicating a potential for the price to fill the ‘fair value gap’ around the $0.661 resistance. For this scenario to unfold, the price must close and stabilize above the $0.656 resistance.
Conversely, if the price dips below the $0.651 support, the downtrend will likely resume, with the next supply zone at the $0.646 mark.
Ethereum Bullish Momentum Slows at Critical Resistance
Solid ECN—Ethereum’s bullish momentum eased near the July 23 low of $3,373, encountering active resistance. Technical indicators suggest a sideways market with a mildly bullish bias.
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If the price closes above $3,373, it could allow bulls to reach the July 22 high of $3,561.
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The July 27 low of $3,084 serves as the key support level for the current bull market.
Litecoin Price Tests $71.8 Resistance
Solid ECN—Litecoin dipped from $76.2, the June 29 high. Currently, the price is testing the $71.8 resistance, while the technical indicators suggest the bearish momentum could extend to lower resistance levels.
Bulls must first maintain the price above the $71.8 resistance for the uptrend to resume. In this scenario, the $76.2 level could be retested. Furthermore, if the buying pressure exceeds the July 29 high, the next ceiling will likely be the $80 psychological level.
On the flip side, if the LTC/USD price closes and stabilizes below the immediate resistance at $71.8, the next bearish target could be $69.7.
Silver Price Eyeing $28.5 Resistance
Solid ECN—Silver price bounced from $27.3 as expected. The stochastic oscillator signaled oversold conditions, warning traders about this pullback. Currently, the XAG/USD bulls are testing the 100-period simple moving average as resistance. Meanwhile, the technical indicators suggest the primary trend is bearish, but the price might consolidate to upper resistance levels.
If the bulls surpass the immediate resistance at $28.5, the pullback will likely target the next demand area at approximately $29.4.
Conversely, if the silver price dips below the immediate support at $28.1, the current uptick trend should be invalidated, and the bears will likely test the recent lower low at $27.3.
Bearish Momentum Expected Below 50 SMA
Solid ECN—The NZD/USD pair is consolidating near the 50-period simple moving average. Meanwhile, the stochastic oscillator stepped into the overbought territory, signaling a sell.
Furthermore, the bearish momentum will likely resume if the price remains below the 50 SMA.
Oil Prices Surge Amid Bullish Signals
Solid ECN—Oil price returned from the $74.2 low when the stochastic oscillator signaled an oversold market. As of this writing, the pair trades at about $76.7, above the immediate support at $75.7. The technical indicators suggest the current uptick momentum should resume. Interestingly, the awesome oscillator adds to this bullish speculation.
From a technical standpoint, if the oil price holds above $75.7, the price will likely rise to the key resistance area at $78.1, backed by the 75-period simple moving average.
Conversely, if the bears (sellers) drive the price below $75.7, the $74.2 key resistance will likely be initially tested. Furthermore, if the selling pressure exceeds $74.2, the next support area will be the $71 mark.
Bearish Trend Expected for EUR/USD
Solid ECN—The EUR/USD price returned from the 50-period simple moving average, and as of writing, the pair trades inside the bearish flag at approximately 1.081. The technical indicators suggest the primary trend is bearish and should resume.
From a technical standpoint, the price will likely test the 1.079 level in today’s trading session. If the selling pressure exceeds 1.079, the next supply zone will be the 1.077 mark.
Conversely, the bear market should be invalidated if the EUR/USD price exceeds the key resistance level at 1.086, backed by the 100-period simple moving average.
Bulls Eye $2,483 as XAU/USD Uptrend Resumes
Solid ECN—Gold is in a bull market, testing the July 17 low at $2,451 as resistance. The technical indicators suggest the market is oversold, and the price might consolidate before the uptrend resumes.
However, the bears have tested the July 24 high at $2,431 today, and as a result, the price bounced, and the uptrend resumed. Therefore, if the XAU/USD price remains above $2,431, the next bullish target will likely be the July 17 high at $2,483.
Conversely, a dip below $2,431 could trigger the consolidation phase, extending to the next support level at $2,402.
WTI Crude Oil Bounces from $76.7
Solid ECN—The oil price dipped to $75.7 after breaking $78.1 with a long bearish candlestick. Currently, the price is bouncing from the key resistance at $75, while the awesome oscillator has flipped below the signal line.
There is no significant pattern on the WTI Crude Oil 4-hour chart, but the 1-hour chart shows a hammer candlestick and a MACD cross, indicating bullish momentum.
The price is likely to test the resistance at $75.7. However, if it dips below $75, the bullish outlook will be invalidated, potentially leading to a retest of July’s low at $75.1.
Oil Prices Test $72.6 Supply Zone
Solid ECN—Oil prices dipped below the $75.1 support level, testing the $72.6 supply zone. The bearish pressure on the WTI Crude Oil price drove the stochastic oscillator into the oversold territory.
From a technical standpoint, we expected the price to consolidate before the downtrend resumed. That said, the price might bounce to fill the ‘fair value gap’ at approximately $75.1, which should be monitored for bearish candlestick patterns.
GBP/USD: Downtrend Resumption Ahead?
Solid ECN—The GBP/USD pair is in a bear market, trading below the 50 and 100-period simple moving averages. As of this writing, the price of the currency pair is stabilizing below the July 3 high of $1.277.
From a technical standpoint, the bear market is valid as long as the price is below the July 23 low at approximately $1.288. However, the price should dip below the immediate resistance at $1.271 for the downtrend to resume. If this scenario unfolds, the next bearish target will be the $1.261 mark.
USD/CAD Poised for Potential Rebound
Solid ECN—The USD/CAD pair recently declined from 1.394, testing the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 1.3786. As of this writing, the price is experiencing a pullback from the critical 1.378 support level. Meanwhile, the immediate resistance stands at 1.383, reinforced by the broken 50-period SMA.
From a technical standpoint, the uptrend will likely resume if the bulls close and stabilize the price above the 50-period SMA, approximately 1.383. Should this occur, the next target would likely be 1.388.
Conversely, if the bears push the price below the 100-period SMA, the downtrend could extend to the next key support at 1.375.
EUR/USD at $1.09: Key Factors Impacting the Market
Solid ECN—The Euro remained steady at $1.091 after reaching a seven-month high of $1.091. Traders are carefully analyzing the monetary and economic outlook. Poor economic data from the US has sparked fears of a significant slowdown or a potential recession in the world’s largest economy, increasing the likelihood that the Fed may need to cut interest rates more sharply.
In Europe, traders expect more rate cuts from the ECB. They predict a total reduction of 90 basis points this year, with a 50 basis point cut scheduled in September. On a positive note, German factory orders unexpectedly rose by 3.9% in July, offering some hope for recovery in the struggling manufacturing sector.
BoE’s Expected Rate Cuts Shake GBP/USD and Bond Yield
Solid ECN—The British pound has dropped to $1.27, nearing a one-month low, as investors predict quicker interest rate cuts by the Bank of England. This decrease coincides with growing fears of a US recession, leading to British government bond yields hitting new multi-month lows. Markets are expecting the BoE to implement two quarter-point rate cuts by December.
On Monday, interest rate futures predicted 56 basis points of cuts for this year, up from 47 basis points expected on Friday. Additionally, two-year gilt yields, sensitive to changes in borrowing costs, decreased by 8 basis points to 3.526%, the lowest since April 2023. Last week, the BoE reduced its benchmark interest rate from a 16-year high of 5.25% to 5.0%, marking the first cut since 2020.
AUD/USD Hits Near One-Week High Amid RBA and Fed Speculations
Solid ECN—The Australian dollar climbed to around $0.655, reaching a nearly one-week high as investors assessed the latest monetary policy decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The currency also gained from expectations that the US Federal Reserve might lower interest rates more aggressively soon.
On Tuesday, the RBA kept the cash rate at 4.35% for the sixth consecutive meeting, which was widely anticipated. Despite this, the central bank highlighted that inflation is still too high, and there won’t be any rate cuts in the near future.
The RBA noted a positive outlook for domestic demand, driven by increased public spending and a rebound in household consumption. Additionally, data revealed that Australia’s industry index remained in contraction for the 27th straight month in July due to weak domestic and external demand.
WTI Crude Rises Amid Middle East Tensions
Solid ECN—WTI crude oil futures climbed to around $77 per barrel on Monday, marking the fifth consecutive day of gains. The rise is mainly due to ongoing supply concerns amid rising tensions in the Middle East.
Over the weekend, reports surfaced that an Israeli airstrike on a school used as a shelter in Gaza led to the deaths of at least 80 people and injured nearly 50 others. In addition, Hamas expressed doubts about participating in upcoming ceasefire talks scheduled for Thursday.
Oil prices were supported by positive economic data from last week, particularly strong US job numbers, which eased fears of a potential recession. Moreover, expectations for a US interest rate cut grew after some Federal Reserve officials suggested on Friday that inflation might be slowing enough to consider lowering rates as soon as next month, potentially increasing oil demand.
