2023 Market Forecast by Solidecn.com

EURUSD Technical Analysis

The EURUSD pair declined clearly yesterday to approach our waited target at 1.0635, but it bounced bullishly to test 1.0745 again, and it keeps its stability below it until now, to keep the bearish trend scenario valid for the upcoming period, noting that surpassing the mentioned target will push the price to 1.0515 as a next negative station.

On the other hand, we should note that breaching 1.0745 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to attempt to regain the main bullish trend again. The expected trading range for today is between 1.0640 support and 1.0800 resistance.

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Bitcoin is Trying to Maintain Momentum Above $23,000

Bitcoin is trading near $23,000 today. After Powell’s speech yesterday, cryptocurrencies were unable to continue their rally despite the initial euphoria. The mood among cryptocurrencies is mixed, with the biggest loser being Graph which gained nearly 50% yesterday on the AI trend. Let’s take a look at some key ‘on-chain’ indicators like NUPL and SOPR, and see how the balance of short (STH) and long-term (LTH) BTC addresses:

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/ Loss Ratio) indicator tracks the ratio of unrealized profit/loss and shows that the rally has lifted Bitcoin above the average purchase price of the broad market, making the ‘average’ BTC holder back in profit. Compiling the duration of the negative NUPL in all the bull markets, we observe a historical similarity between the current cycle (166 days) and the bear markets of 2011-12 (157 days) and 2018-19 (134 days). However, the 2015-2016 bear market stood out under this, experiencing a dominance of unrealized losses twice as long as the current one. This could serve as a potential warning signal should BTC return below $20,000.

The ratio between the total unrealized gain held by the market and its annual average could be another indicator of momentum. The momentum metric is currently approaching the equilibrium point and shows similarities to the recent phases of the 2015 and 2018 bull markets. Confirmed breakouts above the equilibrium point (1 - the horizontal red line) coincided with a change in the market’s profit structure in the past foreshadowed a longer recovery in sentiment. The length of time elapsed below the equilibrium point was similar in all major bear markets, but reaching a key on-chain level may foreshadow supply resistance - the index is struggling to climb above resistance on a sustained basis, which underscores how important it is to overcome $24,000 on a sustained basis.

The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator can be used to check the profit aggregated by different groups of BTC holders. For short-term traders (STH, in red), we see that the STH-SOPR is currently trading above the 1.0 value, showing the first sharp increase in profitability since March 2022. This reflects the large amount of BTC purchased at lower prices in recent months, which can be sold at a profit if sentiment weakens further.

It is positive that not only short-term investors but the broader market also gained after a very deep and prolonged period of losses. However, assessing the LTH (Long Term Holder) group of long-term investors, we can see that the stressful situation has continued nd since the LUNY implosion. Although the group is still, on average, in a loss, there are the first signs of recovery, including the potential formation of an upward LTH-SOPR trend. During the 2018 bull market, long-term investors averaged 291 days in losses; today it’s about 265 days.

Bitcoin, W1 interval. The major cryptocurrency is still struggling to climb above the 200-week average, which has turned into resistance from its historic, very strong support in 2022.

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NZDUSD Within Sideways Track

The NZDUSD pair still stuck between the next trend keys represented by 0.6290 support and 0.6360 resistance, which makes us continue with our neutrality until now, waiting to breach one of these levels to detect the next destination clearly.

We remind you that breaking the support will press on the price to achieve negative targets that start at 0.6210 followed by 0.6140, while breaching the resistance will lead the price to attempt to regain the main bullish trend and head towards 0.6465 followed by 0.6530 levels as main positive stations. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6270 support and 0.6400 resistance.

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Breaking - EUR Weakens Slightly After German Inflation Data

Annual inflation rate in Germany rose to 8.7% YoY in January, from 8.6% YoY in previous month, below market estimates of 8.9% preliminary estimates showed. The statistical office changed the CPI base year to 2020 from 2015 and a technical programme made it necessary to postpone the release of the preliminary CPI.

On a monthly basis, the inflation rose to 1.0%, in January from -0.8% in the previous month and above market estimates of 0.8% increase. In December when a federal one-off payment to cover the monthly installment for gas and heat for all households and small- to medium-sized businesses came into effect, pressuring the inflation down. The EU-harmonized index fell to 9.2% from 9.6%, below forecasts of 10%.

EURUSD bounced off the1.0740 resistance after release of today’s German inflation data.

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USDJPY Tests the Resistance

The USDJPY pair tested 131.65 level by today’s open, keeping its stability below it, accompanied by stochastic reach to the overbought areas, which supports the chances of resuming the negative trades to head towards achieving negative targets that start at 130.40 and extend to 128.90.

Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period, reminding you that it is important to hold below 131.65 to continue the expected decline. The expected trading range for today is between 130.4 support and 132 resistance.

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USDCAD Attempts to Recover

The USDCAD pair approached 1.3350 level and bounced upwards clearly to test the first key resistance 1.3450, consolidating below this level until now, noticing that stochastic shows clear negative signals now, waiting to push the price to resume the bearish trend that its targets begin at 1.3350 and extend to 1.3280 after breaking the previous level.

Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain valid conditioned by the price stability below 1.3450 and 1.3500 levels. The expected trading range for today is between 1.3350 support and 1.3490 resistance.

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CADCHF Technical Analysis

The CADCHF pair succeeded to gather the additional negative momentum to confirm the continuation of the previously suggested negativity and notice its crawl towards 0.6840 recently, also, the stability of the additional barrier 0.6920 forms major factor to confirm the domination of the bearish bias, which allows us to suggest suffering additional losses by crawling towards 0.6790 level soon, followed by reaching the additional support 0.6745 that forms the next main target for the upcoming trades.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6880 and 0.6790.

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Chart of the Day - USDCHF

Swiss franc strengthened on Monday after the annual inflation rate in Switzerland jumped to 3.3% YoY in January, the highest reading since September 2022, from 2.8% in the prior month and above analysts’ estimates of 2.9%, which should support the case for further SNB policy tightening. Pair may experience increased volatility ahead of tomorrow’s US inflation data that could reinforce the case for more Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

From technical point of view, the pair broke below the local support at 0.9235, which is marked with previous price reactions, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the latest upward wave and 200 SMA (red line). As long as price sits below, downward move may deepen towards next major support at 0.9200, which coincides with the lower limit of the triangle formation, 50 SMA (green line) and 38.2% retracement.

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GBPUSD Resumes the Decline

The GBPUSD pair bounced bearishly after testing the bearish channel’s resistance that appears on the chart, to resume the expected bearish track on the intraday basis, which its next target located at 1.1940. The EMA50 supports the expected bearish trend, noting that the current decline is considered as bearish correction for the rise measured from 1.0297 to 1.2443, and breaking the targeted level will open the way to achieve additional declines that reach 1.1625 areas.

The EMA50 forms negative pressure that supports the continuation of the bearish trend domination in the upcoming sessions, and the price needs to get negative motive that assists to rally towards achieving the waited targets. Therefore, we expect to witness more decline on the intraday and short term basis, noting that breaching 1.2140 will stop the bearish trend and lead the price to attempt to regain the main bullish trend again.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1940 support and 1.2110 resistance.

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EURUSD Approaches the Target

The EURUSD pair resumed its negative trading to move away from 1.0745 level, as it falls under continuous negative pressure coming by the EMA50, to approach our waited target at 1.0635, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bearish trend in the upcoming sessions. Surpassing the mentioned level will push the price to achieve more decline and head towards 1.0515 as a next main target, while the price might witness some temporary sideways fluctuation affected by stochastic positivity until getting negative motive that assists to resume the negative trades to achieve the mentioned target.

On the other hand, we notice that the price completes forming negative pattern that adds more confirmation to the continuation of the expected bearish wave, which has negative targets that surpass 1.0515 to reach 1.0400 areas. Therefore, we will continue suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period, noting that breaching 1.0745 will stop the negative scenario and lead the price to start new recovery attempts on the intraday basis.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0575 support and 1.0745 resistance.

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Gold Price Awaits more Decline

Gold price settles below the broken support of the bearish flag pattern, to keep the negative effect of this pattern active, waiting to resume the bearish bias to head towards our main expected target at 1828.70. On the other hand, the price form new negative pattern that we expect to cause additional declines that surpass the mentioned level to head towards 1788.20 areas on the near term basis.

Therefore, we expect to witness more bearish bias on the intraday and short term basis, taking into consideration that breaching 1878.8 will stop the suggested decline and lead the price to attempt to regain the main bullish trend again. The expected trading range for today is between 1840 support and 1875 resistance.

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Crude Oil Completes Positive Pattern

Crude oil price approached the positive target mentioned in our last report at 80.40, showing some bearish bias by today’s open to test the support base formed at 78.90 after breaching it previously, and consolidating above this level is considered as the first condition to continue the bullish wave on the intraday basis. By taking a deeper look at the chart, we find that the price completed forming inverted head and shoulders’ pattern that surpasses 80.40 to reach 81.60 followed by 84.25 areas, to continue suggesting the bullish trend for the upcoming period.

The EMA50 provides the positive support to the price, to reinforce the continuation of the expected bullish trend, while stochastic might cause some sideways fluctuation and temporary negative trades before resuming the expected rise. Therefore, we expect to witness more rise in the upcoming sessions, noting that breaking 78.90 followed by 78.30 levels will stop the positive scenario and push the price to turn to decline.

The expected trading range for today is between 77.50 support and 81.30 resistance.

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NZDUSD Technical Analysis

The NZDUSD pair trades positively to test the key resistance 0.6340, reminding you that consolidating below this level is required to continue the expected negative scenario, which its targets begin by breaking 0.6290 to confirm opening the way to head towards 0.6210 followed by 0.6140 levels.

On the other hand, breaching 0.6340 will push the price to build new bullish wave that its targets begin by testing 0.6390 areas and extend to 0.6490. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6240 support and 0.6350 resistance.

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EURGBP is Forced to Decline

The EURGBP price suffered strong negative pressures, which forces it to delay the bullish attack by reaching the extra support at 0.8875 to notice forming some of the negative waves by reaching 0.8825.

in spite of the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels but the continuation of providing negative closes below the broken support confirms its surrender to the bearish correctional bias domination, to expect reaching 0.8805 and surpassing this obstacle might extend the losses towards 0.8730, to face the moving average 55.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.8865 and 0.8805.

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Chart of the Day - GBPUSD

The GBPUSD pair erased most of the early gains as investors digested latest figures from the UK labour market. The UK Office for National Statistics Office for National Statistics reported that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7% in December as widely expected, while the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits fell by 12.9K in January. Moreover, December reading was also revised down sharply to -3.2K as compared to the 19.7k rise estimated originally. The number of people in work grew by 74k in Q4 of 2022, easily topping analysts’ projections of a 40k increase. The number of part-time employees jumped to the highest level since the September-November period of 2021, however the number of full-time employees decreased but still above pre-pandemic levels. On self-employment, part-time self-employed increased, while full-time self-employed remained low.

On the other hand, in November 2022 to January 2023, job vacancies fell by 76K to 1,134K, the seventh consecutive quarterly fall, reflecting uncertainty across industries, as survey respondents continue to cite economic pressures as a factor in holding back on recruitment.

Meanwhile US dollar trades slightly lower, extending yesterday’s decline, however further downside move may be capped as traders might refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of the crucial US consumer inflation figures, which will be released at 1:30 pm BST.

From a technical point of view, GBPUSD rose sharply in the morning after the release of UK data, however the pair pulled back after buyers failed to break above the 100 EMA (purple line). If sellers manage to regain full control, then declines may deepen towards local support at 1.2075. On the other hand, if bulls manage to regain control, next key resistance to watch can be found around 1.2215.

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EURJPY Prefers the Positivity

The EURJPY pair provided new bullish trading by its rally above the moving average 55 recording some extra gains by reaching 142.40, generally, we will keep our main bullish expectation depending on the stability of the extra support at 142.25, besides stochastic attempt to provide extra positive momentum, to increase the chances for resuming the rise and recording extra gains that might begin from 143.15 reaching the next main target at 144.05.

note that the attempt of the price decline below 140.25 level and holding below it will cancel the positive overview, to expect begin forming strong negative trading that might push it to suffer several losses by reaching 139.60 and 138.20.

The expected trading range for today is between 141.10 and 142.40.

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USDCAD - Growth is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will grow to the area of 1.3691–1.3978. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3265.

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USDCHF - Growth is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCHF pair will grow to the area of 0.9455 – 0.9600. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9140.

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NZDUSD - US inflation slows the decline

According to the January report, food prices in New Zealand rose again: thus, against January 2022, the cost of food increased by 11.0%, and vegetables and fruits rose most of all – by 16.0%. The price of meat, poultry, and fish grew by 9.2%, while restaurant meals and soft drinks increased by 8.3% and 7.1%, respectively. Compared to December last year, the indicator increased by 1.7%.

The US dollar is trading at 103.300 in the USD Index, having hardly reacted to yesterday’s disappointing CPI report: the index rose by 0.5% in January, exceeding the 0.1% growth rate of the previous month, which led to a slowdown in annual inflation to 6.4% from 6.5% before. The rate of decline has reduced to a minimum, and soon inflation may continue the positive dynamics observed in autumn.

The trading instrument has reversed and is actively declining, approaching the December low of 0.6240, and the technical indicators reinforce the sell signal.

Resistance levels: 0.6360, 0.6500 | Support levels: 0.6240, 0.6100.

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AUDUSD consolidates below the resistance

The AUDUSD pair attempted to return to the main bullish channel but it consolidated below the resistance line formed at 0.7000 barrier, to start today with bearish bias and approach the key support 0.6925, waiting to break this level to confirm the continuation of the correctional bearish wave and head towards our negative targets that start at 0.6855 and extend to 0.6780.

The EMA50 forms negative pressure against the price to support the expectations to decline, besides stochastic that provides negative signals on the four hours’ time frame. Therefore, we are waiting for more expected decline in the upcoming sessions conditioned by the price stability below 0.7000. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6870 support and 0.7000 resistance

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