30 Pips A day Keeps the your money at bay

[modo]

unfortunately NFP is enough for me to pull my limit on these patterns.

if i get an chance after the number i might consider entering.

[Ogna]

Hi Ogna, sorry for not answering before, I didn’t see your post early.

I wouldn’t trade that pattern and here’s my personal reasons why:

1. I can’t find any other convergences at that point.
2. It’s countertrend trade, and the pair has been in a strong uptrend since february/march.
3. Even though that level was a resistance point before on nov 2007 feb 2008, we’re currently making higher highs since a long time ago, and trust me, I had the worst experience last august trying to short the aussie when it was making historical higher highs.

So I will pass on this one, waiting for bullish patterns on that pair.

Thanks for the input!

[wrtm_19]

unfortunately NFP is enough for me to pull my limit on these patterns.

if i get an chance after the number i might consider entering.

Well said!

Never forget guys to look after news, and be careful about price reaction. No matter how good your pattern and your odds are, if such important news makes target get triggered you better wait for another set up.

It’s no secret what reaction cause NPF report and a great lesson not to trade news, at least not such important news.

Technically, yen pairs were forming pennants, and for the last hours they respected an up trendline very well.

Logical reaction expected was an explosion at D point, as it happened, but I expected it to the downside.

We can’t win them all, and the market taught us a great lesson.

[wrtm_19]

@chaudmo

just woken up and my stubble has nearly grown into a beard waiting for these asian pairs to hit their targets.

Oz

Hi Oz!

Yes, symmetry is very important, and not that it has to be perfect but it helps if it is. I don’t know if this helps to answer your question, but in the next chart you can see the pennant that I was talking about before.

Several hours before D were hit (three hours prior to the last bar, price missed D for 7 pips, retraced 112 pips and half way the 23% AD fib, definitely a great trade if you would’va made an early entry. But we didn’t know that.

Why I waited for price to hit D and considered the pattern valid?

Well that thick red line you see there is a trendline I drew several hours before price hit D. Even though price retraced 112 pips it respected very well the trendline and continued up. YOu also can see in green the 200 sma wich works in this case as a resistance line. That’s the pennant I was talking about before, and that’s one of the criteria that made the pattern valid for me, until otherwise.

[wrtm_19]

where can i get those buterfly thing that everybody uses???

I’m sorry rulima22 I don’t know exactly what you mean here, you mean how to spot them, or the figure in the chart? :rolleyes:

[chaudmo]

cheers wrtm, thanks for the analysis… answers my question :=)

[LUD]

usd/jpy 4h , how do you like it, almost perfect convergence

[jgadefelth]

rereadin this thread again i am on page one the examples posted by the threadstarter sometimes he draws to the wick of the candle and sometimes he settles with the body and disregard the wick little confusing anyone knows when we shall take from the body and when we shall draw from the wick ?

best regards

[modo]

@LUD

usd/jpy 4h , how do you like it, almost perfect convergence

Hi Lud and thanks for posting this pattern. I’m interested in how you got D as it could come into play first thing Monday?

It’s a little hard to see, are you using X approx 89.20. If so I get D at 1.618/2.00 price 91.90. If you could set me straight that would be great.

I would include a diagram but d is off the chart!. Feasible that it could get there as Friday’s NFP was a game changer.

As for Monday morning, the following aj h4 bearish gartley is my number one contender. Of all the yen crosses is seems to have the most common sense X. Price has exceeded D, taken out the stops around 82.55, put in a nice wick, retested the highs, and retested the broken trendline. Perhaps a small position with a stop above the 1.618 approx 86.70.

I have a 3.5 pip divergence at D but believe this is acceptable given the 4H timeframe. Also encouraging is the 786/1.272 combo.

So anyway, maybe something to watch, but obviously take care as Monday mornings are notoriously flaky and volatile.

[modo]

Hi,

There is also this bearish butterfly possibility on the aj 5 min which might help fine tune the entry.

Keep in mind that an (opening weekend) gap (higher) in the CD leg might indicate continuation and be a reason to pass on the trade(s).

Here’s the 4hr and 5min patterns on the same chart.

[LUD]

yes, X is at 89.17 and A is on the really long wick.

I saw several patterns on my brokers mt4 and on fxcm that were totally different, there where more spikes at fxcm though. will see if this butterfly works out, at the moment the last candle seems so, a long wick to the fib convergences.

should be godd for 200 pips !

Hi Lud and thanks for posting this pattern. I’m interested in how you got D as it could come into play first thing Monday?

It’s a little hard to see, are you using X approx 89.20. If so I get D at 1.618/2.00 price 91.90. If you could set me straight that would be great.

I would include a diagram but d is off the chart!. Feasible that it could get there as Friday’s NFP was a game changer.

As for Monday morning, the following aj h4 bearish gartley is my number one contender. Of all the yen crosses is seems to have the most common sense X. Price has exceeded D, taken out the stops around 82.55, put in a nice wick, retested the highs, and retested the broken trendline. Perhaps a small position with a stop above the 1.618 approx 86.70.

I have a 3.5 pip divergence at D but believe this is acceptable given the 4H timeframe. Also encouraging is the 786/1.272 combo.

So anyway, maybe something to watch, but obviously take care as Monday mornings are notoriously flaky and volatile.

[kkchin]

hi, i’m new to forex. i just give a try to draw out the pattern.

pls correct me coz i feel something wrong with my pattern and i not really know how to use the fibonacci

[kkchin]

here is another try to draw the pattern

any advise will be great

thanks

[Zcan]

What happened to TMoneyBags?

[wrtm_19]

rereadin this thread again i am on page one the examples posted by the threadstarter sometimes he draws to the wick of the candle and sometimes he settles with the body and disregard the wick little confusing anyone knows when we shall take from the body and when we shall draw from the wick ?

best regards

Hi Jgadefelth,

AS far I as know, when you have really long wicks, or news candles, you can draw your fibs from the actual body of the candle., but honestly I have never used this way of spoting fibs, so that’s all I can tell about it.

Hope that helps.

[wrtm_19]

What happened to TMoneyBags?

I wish I knew! :rolleyes:

[modo]

hey anybody,

any patterns on your radar, i don’t have jack.

thanks

[wrtm_19]

hey anybody,

any patterns on your radar, i don’t have jack.

thanks

No patterns for me today!

[modo]

No patterns for me today!

ok, so it’s not just me, thanks for the response i’m going to take the day off.

[rustam]

I’ve found three patterns, whether they are good or not is the question
I don’t intend to trade any of them because I have no idea where to put stops and limits so i’m just gonna wait an see what happens.