Wow I’m glad I’m starting AFTER this complex consolidation!
Anyways - another reason why I will be only trading 1 pair to start with - because the losing patches will be less damaging.
I’ve attached a chart with my expectations for GU.
I believe it will either:
A. breakout of the nearest UTL on the 4hr chart, at which point there should be lots of buying pressure and I will be long. (green arrow)
B. reversal back down to the low of the consolidation channel at which time I would be short. (red arrow)
Either way the first and second 1h candles of the move - whichever direction it is) should be of decent size, which will tighten up my stop loss quickly.7
By painting charts the short term technical patterns are used to dupe a lot of market participants & lead them in circles.
Market participants throw their orders into the markets at a specific level, which in turn attracts more orders.
It slows when some or all decide to pull those orders back out again.
The directional flow of the price action at that point will depend on [B]why[/B] those exit orders were encashed and [B]what spooked[/B] market participants.
A lot of market participants are going long, getting stopped out, then going short, then getting stopped out, then reversing back to long, then getting stopped out again until eventually cleaned out.
This kind of tactical spooking is easily done with chart painting outside strategic price levels.
Meanwhile the big movers of the market waiting patiently for strategic price levels coming onto their radar for their high probability/low risk entries.
Why share profits when they can clean out a lot of market participants by spooking them?
I’ll attempt to paraphrase if I may?
You are saying PA is far more reliable when it occurs within an S+R region than when it occurs between S+R regions?
The price action this week on that pair clearly highlights the distinct lack of demand from the last time it was sniffing around this upper zone.
Quarter 4, 2009 launched prices back up as it did prior to that occasion during quarter 2 of the same year. From a technical perspective, the 1.5700-1.5800 zone is quite a prominent prior technical area of demand.
So far this week it hasn’t come close to testing the potential strength of any trailing profit & sell order stops beyond the 1.5770-5800 level, but then it hasn’t really needed to.
Every time price pops it’s head inside the prior demand zone it’s been met with a repeated selling, or supply bias – that’s where your shorts ought to be primed for action & ready to roll, not down in the (current) short-term demand area of 1.5550-5580.
If a previous area of demand (1.5700-5800) isn’t tempting fresh buy orders when it next arrives at that zone, then the logical conclusion might be to consider initiating your short orders from that level the next time it gets tested & fails.
That upper (1.5800) level is now building up a head of steam attracting a stack of 2 way order business.
Prices were repelled for the 3rd & 4th time yesterday & today. Those were the better value short order ticket entries. So, if & unless price breaks up & out in determined fashion next week, it will also act as a value short area again.
If it does break up & out, they’ll be plenty of opportunities to climb aboard on pullback longs as the various stop orders get absorbed & shuffled.
Same type of deal with continuation short orders if & when prices break down through this weeks lows, where short stops will now be building up.
Going out for abit, so I added a Take Profit (just in case) at 1.5748
60 pips - a modest amount relatively, since this trade is against the main trend as defined by m.a.'s on my 1 hr chart.
I’m be keeping my eye on this thread; good luck in your endeavours and hope you get where you’re aiming! It’ll be some motivation for me to sit up and quit losing pips