Long at 5711, SL 5685 - target: tentative
SL moved to 5702 - playin it safe hoping for a breakout!
If you know that 2/3rds of eur/usd average day’s range is over 30 pips away up at 1.3675 & 80 pips shy of it’s average daily range up at 1.3725, then that might influence your bet size (in accordance with your usual risk %) & offer more confidence to instigate a larger position than if price was at, or above that 2/3rds level already.
The current situation is that this pair has broken up in asian trade through yesterday’s high at 1.3634 & pulled back to stabalize as the Swiss & German markets pick up momentum leading into the main London trading volumes.
If this type of potential momentum trigger appeals, then a likely entry anywhere around this current price zone of 1.3640 would offer a very good value stop loss back below the thrust bar at 1.3625 as Tokyo afternoon trade picked up.
Trade volumes across the board were well below their normal averages yesterday due to the extended Chinese new year & U.S holidays, so risk aversion & lack of order appetite put a cap on any solid 2 way directional bias.
Usually after any kind of holiday influenced trade, tight range barriers come into focus with stops lining up either side seeking a fast paced move to the next perceived important level.
This is one typical example of how the average days range might offer you another clue or leg up into gauging strength & coverage potential for the days action.
If you can use any of that info in your own trading method or plan, then great.
BUY stopped out -9pips
time for bed, hope things pick up the last 3 days of this week - either way I’m adding another pair next week!
Forexchef, if you keep doing what you are doing the concentrated GBPUSD shorts will raid your account.
You are running straight into their “knifes” up there above [B]1.5700[/B] with your BUY orders.
Yeah, he’s buying where he really ought to have been selling.
There’s no business for Cable longs until that range top beyond 5740-50 starts to creak & give ground.
Just too many short orders in evidence every time the magnet draws weak longs into the net.
I’ll be inclined to wait & let others do the hard work for me sniffing out the strength/weakness of 2 way orders & step in to take a nice break & pullback entry beyond there if/when it’s done absorbing the sell orders.
Failing that, it’s remains an effortless “sell into weak longs” for the time being.
Yeah. . . currently another pair is a great idea.
And, I didn’t have evidence that GU was leaving the range - that’s why the tight SL. And so far I’ve only been mugged of 9 pips at $0.50 each.
But. . .keep moving forward
Really impressive - $50k in 3 months is quite a lot.
Best Regards,
Matt Jones 
.
Now that’s the type of evidence you want to see when pressuring the stops at range barriers.
Europe/London business day closing off, oil breaking out higher, shorts folding & getting canned etc.
1.5740 represents 2/3rds of the days range, with the ATR for the day up at 1.5800, which coincides with the channel mentioned the other day.
Those sharp momentum bars pushing up at the European close into the 5740 range top merit attention for sure.
If you’re looking to engage on an up thrust (or down draft) through a previous defense zone as we’ve witnessed the past week or so, then you really want to see that aggressive type of price action to consider climbing aboard.
At the very least it usually offers up a clearly identified technical area in which to place your stop losses to check the momentum strength.
If it makes a run for 5800 & covers the average daily range into the bargain, then you need to look for consolidation & evidence of potential follow through.
So, the very level that capped it (5700-5740), ought to now be able to support any shift lower as profits from early bird speculative longs get cashed out into late New York, early Tokyo action.
Yeah, that’s how it played out with today’s/NY session 1.5792 High print.
If it stay’s up there another thrust could be on the cards judging by the money flow hitting the pound. Especially during last hour Frankfurt session.
Shorts could be in trouble. It is hard to tell where that line of defence is drawn.
I am inclined to think between 5800 & 5850 judging by PA from 4th of Feb.
used,
so are you gonna throw some money down on it? or. . . how does your trading go (when?what?why?)
I would love to see some big push in the euro sessions tonight because thats when i trade GU!
I am gonna try to jump in on some impulse waves upon the break of local highs and lows on 30M and 1HR tf
I am GU short since second week in January 2010. 
My stops are hidden up there somewhere.
Hidden? How did you hide them?
Probably from somewhere around 6300 then eh?
There was a nice reversal on the UTL that week, then about 100+ pips of drawdown the next week
Pending BUY 1.5787, SL 1.5756
Pending SELL 1.5755, SL 1.5787
Target for buy might only be 15 pips depencing on how price reacts if it hits top of the range. Target for sell about 30 pips (tentative)
Stop-losses likely to be moved after the position opens up and price moves - maybe with 30M SAR or using successive SandR
My pending BUY of GU that was triggered at 1.5787 I have now closed manually at 1.5812 for 25 pips.
So +16 pips so far. . .
I think that on the days that GBPUSD is trending, I will be able to make more pips during the first hour or two of London so that even with days like this week has experienced so far, the average can be around 20-25 pips per day with GU in the long run. And that will average 100 pips per week.
I probably could have/would have held on for more pips tonigh and moved my stop loss, but everyone’s made me nervous with all this talk about strong support and resistance levels that I normally wouldn’t pay attention to - maybe its for the best.
But I’m not complaining because I’m in the GREEN!
If your own market views & your trade plan is working for you, then continue with it.
Other folks views are simply that – different observations of the same picture.
You need to find what works for you & own it.
If it stands up to the markets scrutiny & there aren’t too many holes in it, you’ll continue to make money.
The time you stop making consistent returns is when you’ll get the nod to begin analyzing & identifying the weak links in your strategy or system.
You’re going to need to experience how this thing operates & functions across different market conditions & various other currency pairs first before you can arrive at an accurate conclusion of it’s forward potential.
Most people don’t give their strategies & systems sufficient time to evaluate the forward potential & iron out the kinks.
They also run out of money long before they get the opportunity to arrive at an effective & balanced conclusion.
The other major gaff is the fact they usually construct & base their models around a certain or specific market condition & often fail to recognize or react to a change in volatility & market behavior that impacts negatively on their PnL returns.
They simply plough on regardless rather than step aside or adjust their parameters.
If you can implement & operate your strategy to make the most efficient use of the markets differing behavior cycles, then you’ll at least give yourself a better than evens chance of coming out the other side relatively intact & pain free.
You are going to have confidence in what you are doing.
Don’t get thrown off by other people’s view.
Other people are not you.
In the final analysis it’s all about your bottom line & difference it makes to it.
Very true. As much as debate in Forex can assist with the learning we all need to do to become better traders, the fact is that there is already enough self-doubt in many traders, hearing points of view from people who don’t nescessarily trade the same system at the same trade volume can be disconcerting at best and devastating at worst.
I am not saying we should all stay quiet and not contribute, far from it, some of my most important knowlege about Forex has come by the odd post here and there that mentions something almost in passing that turns out to be of profound importance down the line.
All i would say is that if you have a system that works, consistantly for you, then by all means take on board what is said by others, but don’t let it detract from the confidence you had in your system to begin with.
By the way, like what you’re doing on this thread, it’s very positive…will you make the $50,000 in three months??, doubt it to be honest, but thats not to say i don’t think you’ll do well… i will be watching this thread with avid interest.
PS. I don’t often post on many threads other than my own because there is usually some handbag throwing by people who think they know everything, it’s nice to see that on this thread, there has just been good, even-handed knowledge sharing…i wish it were always the case.
Keep up the good work guys.
