Hahaha, it brighten up my days reading your posting bro scottclymer…
Bull rush in and shout “charge” Up
Bear slowly move in and say it is still early, and sit DOWN.
No one exactly know the mood of Mr market except to look for signal on Mr market face. Be it TA or FA, so, what the forum creator want to bring across is way to detect the mood of Mr market - probability of winning.I have been wondering, which camp can safely predict Mr Market mood??? So, the plan that he has derived is to create the probability of winning. So, there is no fool or SMART ALEX in the market except when u start laughing to the bank. I rather be a fool and laugh to the bank then a smart guy living in poor…
I have back-tested on your method, your second method does give a higher probability on pips, but correct me if I am wrong, something look strange when there is an announcement or event, if u set a few rules on risk management during the period, how your win rate? I seems to be able to get a decent result. Anyway, do let us know your outcome as I dun want to hijack your forum
A few variations on the theme of London ORBO strategies can make all the difference.
H1 charts run from the hour to the hour: note that volatility can take off hugely at 0800 so its more convenient to be setting your orders at just after 0730. Later in the day, the US open would print right in the middle of a 1hr bar, and this will possibly be important - see below.
Especially if you’re trading off M30, don’t cancel the secondary order. Its not uncommon to find price going one way for an hour or an hour and a half at the London open, then reversing very strongly and continuing the opposite way all morning.
The US open often prints a disruptor bar at 1430: this is often a reversal or at least the end of a strong move. Get out and cancel untriggered orders between 1400 and 1430.
Profitable result on GBP/USD today. Long trade triggered early but stopped out about an hour in - short trade triggered at that time, closed manually just after 2pm. Net profit 0.85r where r is the 0700 M30 range. About 2 minutes of screen time in total.
This is an approach that I’ve been thinking about!! Shocked to find myself in the company of “great minds”. This speaks to what I would call ratcheting up the ladder. Bank pips at “every rung” so there’s no back sliding.
Disclaimer: none of the following is trading or investment advice, it is merely my take on this strategy!
I coded this strategy in MQL 5 and ran an optimization over 2 inputs: take profit level and stop loss level (both measured in pips).
Lot size was hard-coded to the minimum (1 micro lot) so that I could focus on profit factors and the overall shape of the equity curve. In a more realistic simulation, this would rather be calculated using fixed fractional position sizing so that drawdown percentages could be optimized too.
Backtests were run with these parameters:
Start date: 2016-01-01
End date: 2020-02-18
Symbol: GBPUSD
Account currency: GBP
Initial balance: £10,000.00
Leverage: 1:30
Possible issues:
This code is using TimeCurrent() in MQL to find the close of the 7 AM bar, which can cause variance in backtesting vs. live trading depending on server-time settings per-broker.
I have not done a thorough test of this code, I wrote it fairly quickly as I was interested in the results because I know someone who tried trading this system.
The results are below. Orange headers are input parameters. The green rows are the ones I would consider trading myself (if I was currently trading FX).
When he means that fundamentals overrule technical stuff, than he is right. If you get nice signals in whatever direction and suddenly a virus breaks out and spreads allover the world, you can throw your sheets of paper with all that lines in the bin…
