60 years later, the beginning of the new EU

Quick update:

I would be careful about selling GBP ahead of the vote - there seems to be gathering momentum from MP’s siding with the PM.

Price was at 2545 then, now at 2610 - more likely to consolidate around this level.

Still looks like a win for PM - the numbers will give some clarity on the task of the ‘meaningful vote’ question, also possible that this will stall the selling of late on GBP.

Wise words. my short got completely crushed. still bearish on GBP longer term though

Aye, right now it’s making a third attempt at 2680 - when I see that I think:
is it failing because of sellers or lack of buyers.

Likely the latter, then I think
what would it take to get new buyers on board.

Only some positive news on Brexit perhaps… if not then back down.

For UK guys, the big short on BBC2 toninght :slight_smile:

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Oh - forgot about that - 2680 became a pill too bitter to swallow for buyers - see how price managed 2685 and baulked, then down more than 100 pips - that post was Thursday morning - there were two more efforts at 2680, then yesterday the drop.

No takers (buyers) for the offer methinks - that’s levels and FA .

What about nest week? - sell the highs perhaps - although there are rumours afoot in Westminster and as always - don’t buy the rumour, wait for the fact.

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Quick update - pound traders maybe caught on the hop today, meant to post earlier - the reason for GBP buying was that Tory Party MEP’s were called to UK PM’s HQ (no.10) today.

The market suspects that the reason is to inform them that they will be seeking re-election this coming May to the EU parliament even though that the UK will have left (apparently) by March 29th.

Classic case of buying a rumour, the weekend will add more clarity, lol - that’s a word very scarce in the Brexit debate

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Brexit deal heavily defeated in the Commons:

200 in favour; 432 against.

Motion of no confidence tabled for debate for tomorrow.

Much larger than anticipated from EU perspective - agreement in that quarter now that there is nothing more to be done (by EU) so they are stepping up no deal preparations.

Likely that’s the way it will go so I had better get back to reading those 100’s of pages from HMRC :slight_smile:

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Just saw this quote from the DUP (small party propping up the UK Govt with 10 mp’s).
(same party voted against the agreement)

“We’ll support Theresa May…we’ll see the Conservative govt continuing to deliver on Brexit.”

Hmmm… politicians

Edit: Boris Johnson adds that the result gives Theresa May a “massive mandate” to go back to Brussels.

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I think Brexit will not happen, for whoever will be in government in the next few weeks may well consider asking the EU to revoke article 50. Given that nobody wants a no-deal and there is no time for a second referendum or.further negotiations, it may be the only solution.

Just an update - especially if trading GBP next week.

There is the possibility of renewed volatility on GBP due to political debates and associated votes to take place in Westminster this upcoming week. The market has been expecting at least an extension of Brexit date and has been trading UK data (earnings index) instead of Brexit this past week, any political upheaval could cause disruption to the trend.

On a personal note, which will not be mentioned again, the effect of Brexit and the apparent no deal looming will have major negative effects on my business, my city, my community and my family.

I live and do business on the NI land border, in our community and businesses Euros and Gbp’s circulate together freely - for this reason we need to become familiar with market activity and likely exchange rate direction.

The two economies and communities are very closely intertwined and even the thought of a hard border between the two gives me goose pimples.

A majority in NI voted to remain within the EU likely based on these reasons but alas there was one political party that opted for leave - the DUP - and by chance their 10 mp’s hold the balance of power in Westminster - the best we could hope for is that the invisible border would stay.

The UK PM likewise opted for such a scenario in Dec 2017 when she was ready to sign an agreement keeping NI in alignment with EU regulations - the DUP said NO and the Mrs May had to return without signing.

To date the EU 27 have also insisted on a seamless border and so the ‘backstop’ was born.

It’s all a long story, well told by the US NBC, the short video sums up best for local people.

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I like the sound of that - fingers crossed anyway, this week has been far too smooth for my liking in GBP.USD :wink:

ps. I hope the final outcome works in your favour for your business and family, whatever the outcome will be - most likely an extension in my view; which means very little from a decision and preparation point of view.

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Aha Jezz you missed my heads up on the thread about interest rates - this week was sitting out for a rise on cable - Brexit baloney on the back burner and Tuesday morning for the earnings index - perfect mix, must post a chart for learners of FA in later times.

Anyways, posted the NBC above, then today Bloomberg went one better and did this interview. Mostly UK guys would have zero interest but our US cousins do want to know…

Underlines what my post was all about…hmmm… seems BP is well read…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-25/varadkar-says-troops-could-return-to-border-in-botched-brexit

Edit: Got the chart posted on cable here, now off for the weekend :slight_smile:
Effect of interest rates on dollar-assets? [Please help]

ah I see, perhaps a misunderstanding in my termonoligy. When I say it was way to smooth I mean to suggest that it was text book entries, of a better word. I’m all for these types of weeks, but I prefer the markets to whip around a little, I get my money’s worth of emotions :wink:

The saga of the Brexit negotiations appear to be drawing to a close in the incoming week.

There is still no agreement despite the technical talks over this weekend, the signs are that there is no breakthrough despite some optimism late last week.

Some guys are commentating that the fact that talks are continuing over the weekend is positive but the reality is that the EU chief negotiator is not present, not even in Brussels.

History in the making :slight_smile:

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Last comment was 9 weeks ago - nothing much has changed since.

There were hopes of a comprise between the two main parties but it became clear that this would be a difficult task from the beginning of last week - there were some negative comments by the shadow chancellor over the preceding weekend.

Eur/Gbp managed to reach down to 85.00 but last week’s monday turned it around.

The outlook? - general GBP weakness as political uncertainty in UK will gather pace.

Well not much except our “Democratically Elected” Government Reneging on their Manifesto Commitments and their promises around the Referendum and Reneging On Theresa Mays Absolute promise to "Leave on March 29 = With or without a deal ! "

so no “Not much” except a Complete crisis of DEMOCRACY ! and the Formation of a completely new Political Party which is Now polling more votes in teh 5 weeks it has existed than the two “Main Parties” Put together. Not Much except the Conservatives now polling 9% ! - Single figures - 5TH Behind the “Greens” solely because of May’s disgraceful actions and total lack of integrity in this matter !

The Conservatives have NEVER since their formation “polled” in single figures!

Yes indeed - “History” will not treat Theresa May kindly - Unlike her predecessor Maggie Thatcher - but then maybe TM could be a product of “Affirmative action” ? - certainly the way the path to the premiership “cleared itself to let her through” it seems that might have been the case ?

Extraordinary, I think we need to sell the Pound then in light of the fact that Brexit won’t occur and Britain will remain in EU after second submission