60 years later, the beginning of the new EU

Hmmm… not what Eur/Gbp is saying - the triple top is a quadruple top - lets see how strong the yellow line is.

FA - nothing changed.
eur_gbp_hr1

Edit: should point out that the yellow line has history - goes back to this time last year daily.

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I guess the MEP elections results on Monday - Throughout the EU could lead to reconsideration of the aims of the EU and whether a more democratic structure can be adopted.

Combined perhaps with a strong Brexiteer replacement for PM in the UK could see a stronger pound - although maybe on a longer term.

Interesting to look at the monthly charts back to 2007 / 8 and the relative motions of the parties currencies - 2008 seems to have left the Euro relatively untouched whereas GBP and USD both got hit quite hard.

Meanwhile I like your “coloured lines” and was wondering what relevance the different “colours” have - if any ?

Anyhow - if you’re still about - have a good weekend :sunglasses:

The lines are guidance, I kind of know them in my mind - the EU elections will have a minimal impact, it’s still very much a club of independent nations each with their own agenda.

Having said that, I stated back in the early posts of this thread that seldom has there been such cohesion between the 27 - they have got behind Ireland big time, whether it’s ownership of the peace thing or deals in the pub after hours or whatever but the EU will not let go of the backstop - seems wto beckons.

Just thinking about this - over the years I’ve found that the market is pretty useless at thinking long term, it usually reacts to what is perceived to be the now and as we know the now changes with the wind.

C4 mentioned the fly on wall video (bbc4) and how Raab was respected by EU for his workmanship so who knows… time will tell.

Maybe a GE and get rid of the DUP veto :slight_smile:

I can’t see any other option being viable just now ! And in order to survive the “Tories” have to adopt Farage’s policies and “Out Farage Farage” - like they did before. The problem they have is that this time we are unlikely to be as easy to convince.

Never in a million years will the Tories willingly instigate a General Election without having already left on “Farage’s terms” - The Brexit Party is likely to push them down into 3rd place if they do so !

I think DUP would be irrelevant if “they” called an election !

Bear in mind what Farage is demanding - ie WTO exit and places on the negotiating table, which I think someone from the “Spartans” group could offer him - although he has already said he could not trust Boris to form a partnership with due to Boris having voted for Barnier’s Treaty at the third demand.

[Note - you mention “Raab” - I think Farage would have the same issues with him. ]

I wonder has Farage expressed a view on who his choice of PM would be (aside from himself lol).

Robt Peston wrote a good article back about 10 days - I’m no fan of Peston but he has good contacts and his claim to fame was that when with bbc he outed RBS difficulties before it was public knowledge.

Anyways he posed a valid question:

Yes I watch Peston, without being totally a “Follower” as well. I think I expressed similar views on some of these threads, regarding Mr Farage and the interaction of the “Potential 3 parties” liable to pull votes at a General Election.

I’m not sure he has a preference as such. I’m sure He (and everyone else) would feel incredibly frustrated and Angry, should the “Remoaners” manage to spoil the election process Again ! by putting another “wimp” in place. And THAT WOULD in my opinion Bring down the Tories without doubt and probably terminally ! - Leaving the potential for 18 or 20 million to vote “Brexit Party” at a General Election !

It is true that many of the followers are desperately disappointed Tories - but a great many come from Labour voters as well.

However, I was at one of his rallies and have watched a number of them and the Vitality of the PArty and the support base comes from the slogan "Change Politics for GOOD "

The danger that the “usual suspects” try to classify the Party as just another Protest Party and expect it to fade away - may just cost the " Broken 2 Party system" dearly.

I have to say that personally I have always been against “PR” - but am rapidly changing my mind - except that it potentially gives political power balance possibilities to all sorts of “Crackpot” minority groups. But on the other hand just having two totally incompetent and in honesty undeserving (I hesitate to expand on that) groups of parasites just “taking the money and the expenses” without us being able in practice to remove them because "Careerists" of the two groups are just as bad as each other !

For either of the other two parties to be in “Co-operation” with the Brexit PArty, I think negotiations would need to occur.

The principle being that "This is not about Right and Left - It’s about Right and Wrong" !

Then again, I am not unconvinced by the argument that “We have already left” and note Andrea Leadsom’s resignation letter gave hints of doubs about the legality of some of May’s actions !

Aha - this is why I dislike politicians - right and wrong is not great at vote catching whereas Left and Right is a different ball game.

Here in NI politics is dictated by orange/green or unionist/nationalist or loyalist/republican.

These things politicians are good at because there are votes to be harvested, we have a party called ‘Alliance’ - they are none of these and my hope is that they do well in the EU elections.

Now it’s the weekend, just been to Tesco and unbelievably spotted “Fecking Irish Vodka” and “Fecking Irish Gin” - I kid you not - we know what’s important :slight_smile:

Edit: found it online - thing is you have to be over 18 to view:

Weekend almost to a close - time to think about the week ahead.

First thing is that it is a month end week - I’ve mentioned before that there are bills to be paid and exchanges to be made.

Note on Friday there was a push up beyond the line - it was on no new news and on a Friday - just a fake out, of more interest was where the close settled.

Cable is still looking positive on a chart, but nothing has changed in the FA arena so why would I buy?.

Anyways, on the UK political front there are quite a number of contenders for PM, the market will only take notice when it gets down to two, the suspicion is that there may be a no-deal and pro-deal candidate, that would make trading more interesting - trying to read the sentiment of conservative membership.

There is a new line on the chart - it’s painted red in deference to the PM’s red lines - it too has history but it’s fading (Mid Mar 2017)

- the older you get the less your strength I suppose.

OK - that was 2 hours ago and Asian has opened and the market is thin.

Now here is that same red line (I know it’s a little pink but maybe that’s the feminine part of me :slight_smile: )

This is the thing about Stops - be aware of the levels and of liquidity.

Eur_Gbp_redline.

On post 239 the inverted H&S was worth 50 odd pips with a tiny stop - but note that they are undone today in the light market.

Also note the reversal on GBP/USD is at a non specific TA level - it was the time of the reversal today that was important:

It was the same time that price on EUR/GBP hit my red/pink line today:

Eur_Gbp_redline

There was no change in the FA and it took one week for resistance to become support.

The decisive breakthrough was last day of the month.

That was 3 weeks ago when price was averaging around the 87.50 level.

Then i mentioned a couple of weeks ago;

Well the first week of the new month has just finished and the FA remains unchanged so guess what has happened price:

And since it’s the weekend and wind-down time thought I’d post this little piece of good news.

Some time ago i mentioned in a reply to @Clint that we Irish are not really into pomp and ceremony.

Pres Trump has just left our country, I know he enjoyed this wee piece of ceremony that may not make the TV news stateside:


:

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That post was May 22nd, then look at the chart up above for this weekend.

Trading only one instrument can become almost boring, same old, same old.

Just at the close price reacted to the DT - Friday evening etc.

But the same question as posed back those weeks - has the FA changed?

Just decided to post a little thought about risk and the market thinking.

There are many suggestions of how to get a handle on risk sentiment - perhaps one of the best is the US2000 - buy small caps because therein lies the next Microsoft etc.

Anyways - these are all d1 and the past 5 weeks:

First up is the Russell 2000 as mentioned.

US2000_D1

Clear trend, risk is off, get rid of the small caps - except for the reversal for the first week of this month.

So what about the bond market - you could’nt get more safe than a US Bond:

USB10YR_D1

Hmmm… the reversal in the past week is not so clear, but what has all this to do with FX, where are the pips?

The market in more recent times translates risk to USD/JPY?: