M. Barnier was supposed to update the 27 today but that has been postponed until early Monday morning 0830 eu time.
UK side heading to Brussels Sunday early - maybe even tonight Sat.
This is a last ditch effort but likely will fail - EU side waiting to see if the Internal Market Bill is unchanged Mon afternoon in UK Parliament (wherein the UK will break the last agreement).
Not an easy time for the UK PM - difficult decisions up ahead.
Monday and Tuesday would perhaps be a time to be flat GBP - most businesses have been hedging a no-deal in the past couple of weeks.
Rumours from Brussels are that the ‘offending’ clauses can or will be removed by UK - tomorrow Monday will tell the tale on that one.
On the LPF one issue outstanding surrounds the EU covid fund - is it outside of state aid or not.
Fish is still the biggie - UK proposing 3 year status quo - EU not there on that.
Talks will continue Monday - the market will look to see what happens on the Internal market Bill for clues.
Edit: some heads of state saying 50/50 today and i know i said flat Gbp - but can a trader sit on the fence or take up a position - hmmm… if I were forced I’d say deal
There’s an almost-believable opinion going round that these London-Brussels Frost-Barnier theatrics are just that - its a cosmetic and synthesised dispute so that politicians and voters and businesses back home can be reassured whatever deal emerges is the best deal possible. And it was really hard-won and desperately difficult to negotiate. Then everyone’s relieved and of course the people in charge could not have done a better job and naturally nobody’s to blame…
Yeah I’ve heard that analysis - there are some theatrics but being used for leverage by both sides.
M.Barnier just after giving an update to the 27 - was pretty much negative hence the big move in GBP just now.
When he is updating 27 ambassadors it’s difficult to keep a tight lid on info leaking out - not only 27 ambassadors but all the staffers as well.
Apparently no progress yesterday at all so he’s not hopeful for a breakthrough today.
Edit: ‘not hopeful’ maybe the wrong message about today - there is a push to get something done today whether it be positive or negative we’ll have to wait and see.
Well it turned out to be a little of both. Thus GBP fell and rose - all on the latest coments by players.
Bottom line right now is that M. Barnier has stated Wednesday is last day then he’ll have to report to the EU summit Thursday that it is no deal.
UK have offered to amend the Internal market Bill (the bill that breaks International Law) and to remove the offending clauses - the caveat is that there must be an agreement - this hasn’t exactly placated the EU side, in fact the opposite from comments by M. Barnier re not bowing to threats etc.
So in general nothing much to report - probably back to the 50/50 scenario.
The UK have decided to remove the illegal portion of IMB and have promised to not include similar clauses in the forthcoming Finance Bill.
These clauses were targeting the Irish border - a border that was specifically mentioned must be kept open by the present admin and the incoming admin in the US - impossible to know what caused the change of heart but one obstacle removed to agreement.
An unfortunate side effect has been a breakdown in trust thus ‘governance’ is one of the outstanding issues at present.
UK PM heading to Brussels tomorrow - last time he interjected it had a positive outcome so there is a chance of that happening yet again.
Pretty much gearing for a no deal - they want the EU president to publish the no deal arrangements - she is reluctant right now so as ‘not to scare the horses’.
Apparently there was some input from the US on the Irish border problems - details on that protocol now emerging - there is a sense that the offending clauses were dropped not to facilitate an agreement but to settle ruffled feathers.
Anyways not 50/50 it seems - more 60/40 - let’s see.
Latest is that dinner is over - all news agencies quoting a ‘senior UK govt source’ that significant gaps remain.
He/she also described the discussions as ‘frank’ likely meaning an argument.
Also mention made of yet a new deadline - this coming Sunday.
No comments or leaks yet from the EU side - today they finalized their yet unpublished plans on Finance/Banking, Air Travel, Energy (UK sell into EU energy market).
As previously mentioned when these become published then all concerned will know what has to be done from Jan 01 - meantime we have to wait.
Some companies are having to adjust in the dark - Amazon have emailed EU customers of increased costs and delays if using Amazon .uk, FXCM have emailed EU customers that their accounts will be moved to EU entity in the next week or so.
Yes going to have a nice cozy “dinner” with Ursula von der wossit - I wonder if he’ll get the “Leg-over” ?- that would really p*ss Princess Nut-nut off methinks !
Seems the waiting is finally over - apparently EU side going to publish ‘today or tomorrow’.
For business here in NI it’s much easier since we have had details since the summer and seems to be ‘light touch’ from both sides - we now have two vat registrations, one for internal UK transactions and one for EU - all registration admin done for us by UK and EU.
I suppose it shows that they can work together when they want and for the good of all citizens.
Anyways, the discussions last evening were described as ‘frank’ by UK, EU now describing them as ‘lively’ - so just maybe that will help clear the air.
They did talk today but those talks were overshadowed by the message below from the UK.
The UK MoD said 2 days ago that they had no specific plans regarding a no-deal but that has changed in the past 24 hours.
Apparently the focus is French fishermen, likely result a French fishing boat being sunk or captured would be a blockade by others of French ports - such action would target UK ferries - a recipe for disaster for both sides.
Gunboats are the result of failure of politics and politicians and a step back into the past.
Best that can now be hoped for tomorrow is a step back.
Naval interventions in fishing disputes happen regularly across the globe and there is nothing unique about the UK’s position. In fact, it would probably be a more unique policy decision to NOT send naval patrols into territorial waters to supervise fishing.
For NI mostly carry on as normal - we have our new vat reg no.s - just the old number with ‘xi’ in front - means we buy/sell to/from the EU as always - no exports or imports, just acquisitions and dispatches accompanied with an invoice - totally seamless.
For GB/EU there are customs /declarations and accompanied bureaucracy.
Most GB business will employ ‘customs clearance agents’ to do this work, will take a while since these guys are thin on the ground right now so maybe a little more costly.
Time for business will be the most costly factor - that too will become less so in the Spring.
Perhaps the most surprising thing in the trade deal is what is left out - just slightly over 80% of UK gdp - services.
Small things like security (EAW -European Arrest Warrant) or tourist health (EHIC) is maybe understandable - those can be sorted in the near term - but for the life of me I cannot figure why such a huge earner for the UK - Financial Services - has been excluded.
Needless to say there are a few companies in Frankfurt, Dublin and and other capitals who are eyeing the opportunities that are now possible.
Anyways - my final post this thread, it’s taken a while but finally the beginning of a new EU and hopefully a new UK - and thanks to the US for their input in recent times
