I think whoever think Brexit ââno dealââ better than ââbad dealââ, should think again.
That the UK will leave the EU is almost certain at this point. What I keep wondering about is whether there will be other EU members who will leave too.
Anything is possible, although the focus right now is on the Western Balkans and the accession of countries to the EU.
The process is long, it started back about three years ago, in the week past Angela Merkel stated that âThe countries in the Western Balkans should be given a prospect of becoming a member of the EU.â
it has already shown that there are non and wint be none. the netherlands were considered most promising candidate to be the lemming followimg UK over the cliff, but last month elections have shown that this is a highly unlikely scenario- to say the least.
newest polls show that the support for the eu, by eu citizen, is spiking high reaching tge highest high since the creation of the EU.
so no, no more âxyâ-xitâs. -as dissapointing as this sound to UK citizen, its facts.
id be more worried about a scott-uk-âxitâ right now tbh.
or how is that called? âDisunited Kingdomâ?
and the (already happening) exodus of banks from London.
Turbo is correct re the surveys. Since the brexit vote pro EU sentiment within EU has risen.
Since the publication of the UK letter to the EU and the perception by some that there was an implied threat on security issues I would be surprised if there is not a further increase.
Btw, the weekend words from the former UK ruling party leader are referred to as a storm in a teacup, my own suspicion is that it is a diversion to take the focus away from a silly mistake on the security issue.
This veteran sums it up:
Criticism of Lord Howardâs Gibraltar comments âludicrousâ - BBC News
lol, who are you trying to kid?
The UK hold 4 very heavy aces up their sleeve, 3 of which theyâll keep tucked away until or if they require to be calmly & carefully placed on the table at any point of their choosing - MI5 MI6 GCHQ & Donald Trump.
And if anybody thinks for one minute those anti-eu hard liners behind the scenes who will actually be orchestrating negotiations wonât use the former 3 as a bargaining tool if push comes to shove then theyâre seriously deluding themselves.
That was most definitely a very intentionally inserted veiled threat & those postulating fools in brussels can brush it away as grandstanding as much as they like, but the fact remains their intelligence security protocols are an embarrassing joke & if it wasnât for the UKâs vastly superior capabilities knowledge & expertise, major european cities would have experienced far more catastrophic turmoil at the hands of terrorists.
May & Co are happy to allow the remoaners on both sides of the channel to flap their jaws & crow a little, because they know the aces we hold are worth their weight in goldâŚ.or blood.
The UK arenât quite the meek, insular little island they think they are & if Juncker & his incompetent cronies want to play a little hard ball theyâre more than up for that!
Donât underestimate Trumpâs disdain for the EU either, particularly their brain-freeze, clumsy & naĂŻve open-door refugee/immigrant policy fiasco. His views on their clunky, chaotic overly beurocratic nonsense is well advertised + heâs an enthusiastic, consistently vocal supporter of UK & a huge fan of Brexit. He wonât for a minute hesitate to throw his not inconsiderable hat into the ring if he feels like it, if only to fire a warning shot across the EUâs bows.
Merkel recently got a first-hand taste of his utter dissatisfaction & contempt of the EUâs decision making in that incredibly frosty, embarrassingly awkward meeting between the two & they can ill afford to alienate or upset the US further, especially on issues concerning security, something which Teresa May & the Brexit negotiating team is more than well aware of.
Fortunately, the majority of Scots have more sense than to take notice of that hairbrained wailing banshee. Theyâd sink without trace within a year if it wasnât for us.
Itâs so gratifying to see you moaning minnies spluttering & spitting your nonsense all over the media & internet - the same boring, negative crap that those knuckle heads in Brussels trumpet out 24/7.
Months before the actual vote all the deeply offended, sniffy remoaners were informing anyone prepared to listen the UKâs economy would suffer an immediate nosedive, interests rates would have to be raised as inflation rocketed, house values would begin noticeably diving, production would suffer, companies would resist investing until after Brexit, unemployment would rise blah blah blah zzzzzzzâŚâŚ
If you believed all their hot air nonsense the UK as we know it would slide into a state of irreparable destructionâŚLOL
The reality of course is very different indeed & itâs simply made all your ridiculous scaremongering appear quite stupid, very ignorant & put a permanent smile on our faces as we continue to watch you all flail around hopelessly trying to convince yourselves weâve still made a catastrophic mistake. So funny.
Up to & beyond the Brexit decision, the UK are the fastest growing economy in the world, yes that means ahead of the Krauts & all the other 26 laggards, even leaving the US in our wake.
Our employment uptick data outstrips that of every EU bloc by a country mile, with unemployment currently running below 5%, translating to less than half, yes thatâs [B]HALF[/B] that of the EU average.
The fall in sterling is racking up export orders, billions in foreign cash investments from high profile firms such as Google, Apple, Japanese auto manufacturers, Middle Eastern construction conglomerates are pouring in at a rate of knots, not to mention the queue of international trade deals lining up to be signed as soon as we can untangle ourselves from those incompetent imbeciles in Brussels.
Quite the downturn huh?
LOL.
If that represents a horrifying picture of leaving a sinking ship, Iâll take it every time!
Some of you whiny little europeans should get out in the fresh air a bit more & try smelling the rosesâŚâŚbetter still, nip over the channel & smell ours, theyâre incredibly sweet indeed! 
It is precisely because of attitudes like yours that Europe was created, to stop belligerant patriots wanting to kick up wars in the name of a sense of their own entitlement.
This post smells.of trolling all over.
That, or it confounds fact with fiction.
Total garbage. If you must come out with statements like this at least get your facts right.
Countries by GDP Growth 2016 - StatisticsTimes.com
IMF figures list UK as 125th by gdp growth 2016, well behind Ireland (34th), Spain (82nd), Romania (31st), who are all in the EU
Still, youâre only wrong by 124 places
bravo!
and this is exactly the reason why noone is crying over UKâs departure from the EU, and aswell the reason why the Scotts will do their referendum in near future.
This endless arrogance of a country that once was an empire and today mere average.
Big people complex its called if it is characterised into a personality. Empire complex in a nations social opinion.
Anyways, to the rest you wrote i really dont see where to start commenting, since its all so wrong and false facts- no use to even start. Tou 1 comment i will make: UK would need a GDP growth of 16% this year only to compensate for what has been lost in GDP numbers between 2015 and end of 2016. Only the decreased average value of the Sterling is decreasing UKâs GDP (calculated in USD, since world wide trade is done in USD -commodites contracts etc-) by 15%. The numbers of 2016 were 6 months pre breixt vote and 6 months after brexit vote. A short stimulus in exports due to the fall of the GBP was predictable. (this is where the better numbers came from). This effect is only temporarly and is made worthless considering that imports of raw good and other goods has increased by 15% and will stay at this level as long as the GBP stays at the actual prize. A Currency discout benefit is only a temporarly one since companies producing in other currencies will simply lower their prize to be competitve again, but the prize for imported goods into UK will stay on a high level. The numbers for 2017 will look different.
But ill say something about your opinion (since this is considered opinion and not fact):
If your future depends on âTrumps helpâ⌠or âtrump likes usââŚ- just so you know, he is considered a pure Joke over here on continental europe. and if you think trump may do something to german exporters, then you should know that german companies employ far over 2 million citizen in the united states, take aside french, italian spanish and the other EUâs nations companies. -Talking about leverage, and who has leverage over who- US companies dont employ even a third of that number in the EU.
Also you should know that trumps company owes the âDeutsche Bankâ far over 2billion USD in credit.
You really think he will fukk off his biggest creditor and a country that employs over 2million of his voters? plus the other EU countries who employ millions US citizen aswell?
If you would be observing news and statements and behaviours then you could have seen a shift in Trumps behaviour towards EU, Germany and NATO. Before he got elected he had a big mouth on these topics, lately he is very quiet and expresses very often how he supports NATO and the EU.
That is called âPowerâ- noone gives a damn if you are beeing liked as long as you are beeing respected and feared.
And Trump realized in his few month of beeing president that his pre election promises and statements were not very smart.
Anyways, UK exports go to 45% into the EU, but the EU exports go only to 6-7% into the UK.
Some politician (forgot the name) in London quoted it right "a hard brexit will make the European economy grow slower by insignificant 1-2% but would devestate the UK economy.
Thats called leverage.
Please inform yourself before you make roaring posts like yours without any background knowledge.
[ul]
[li]I appologize to Pete for changing the topic of his thread into this âtrashtalkâ. This is my last off topic post and future post will be connected only to the threats theme.
[/li][/ul]
[quote=âstop_runner,post:27,topic:84071â]
lol, who are you trying to kid?
The UK hold 4 very heavy aces up their sleeve, 3 of which theyâll keep tucked away until or if they require to be calmly & carefully placed on the table at any point of their choosing - MI5 MI6 GCHQ & Donald Trump.[/QUOTE]
[quote=âstop_runner,post:28,topic:84071â]
Fortunately, the majority of Scots have more sense than to take notice of that hairbrained wailing banshee. Theyâd sink without trace within a year if it wasnât for us.
Itâs so gratifying to see you moaning minnies spluttering & spitting your nonsense all over the media & internet - the same boring, negative crap that those knuckle heads in Brussels trumpet out 24/7. [/QUOTE]
[quote=âPipMeHappy,post:29,topic:84071â]
It is precisely because of attitudes like yours that Europe was created, to stop belligerant patriots wanting to kick up wars in the name of a sense of their own entitlement.[/QUOTE]
[quote=âPipMeHappy,post:30,topic:84071â]
This post smells of trolling all over.
That, or it confounds fact with fiction.[/QUOTE]
[quote=âCarlosRay,post:31,topic:84071â]
Total garbage. If you must come out with statements like this at least get your facts right.[/QUOTE]
[quote=âTURBONero,post:33,topic:84071â]
and this is exactly the reason why noone is crying over UKâs departure from the EU, and aswell the reason why the Scotts will do their referendum in near future.
This endless arrogance of a country that once was an empire and today mere average.[/QUOTE]
.
Stopâs posts are important, he puts into words a current perception by some within the 27, one that need never have arisen.
The economics correspondent for Irish state TV used the words âthuggishâ and ânastyâ when commenting on the UK letter yesterday, (lol he hadnât read stopâs posts).
Sean Whelan: Brexit and the urge to be thuggish
Anyways, itâs from this low point that negotiations have to begin.
PMH, in the words of YazzâŚ
Yesterday the UK PM and her esteemed colleague the FM both moved to defuse all of this by [I]dismissing the notion of military escalation and hinting that a conciliatory approach would be matched by British goodwill on security issues.[/I] (The Guardian this morning).
The interesting thing for traders is that GBP has remoaned relatively unperturbed by the negativity - apologies, should have said âremainedâ.
Speaking of the FM, Boris Johnson, there is a meet today with his German counterpart, Sigmar Gabriel.
The leaks suggest that there will be talk of âno divorceâ and âpositive discussionsâ coupled with memories of healthy German/UK relations pre EU.
All sounds positive, again will be interesting to see if GBP notices.
The EU parliament approved the EU negotiating guidelines with a list of âred linesâ - nothing much sensational, mostly positive including a commitment to preserve a soft land border EU/UK.
UK PM hinting on rolling back on EU immigration stance, Nigel Farage not drinking any more French wine, eating Belgian chocolates or driving Mercedes or BMWâs - nothing very exciting.
Yesterday J Weidmann, in a German newspaper, said that itâs time to take the foot off the QE gas. The timing is perfect, M Draghi giving a speech today.
Let the games begin, the numbers are helping Weidmannâs cause, so maybe a sign up ahead of some Euro buying.
Draghi may well be negative, but for how long.
Dragi will stick to tze promised for now. QE staying the way it was statet in last statement. everythibg else would make the ECB unreliable and less trustworthy.
Weidman giving statements to prepare the audience for other changes. maybe a hike in interest rates this year. maybe a hike in deposite rates for banks. who knows? untill they have theor speeche noone knows and guessing is like gambling.
the perspective for the euro is a increse in worth in my perception.
i already talked with a circle of friendly traders in private. in my opinion the eur/usd will rise this year towards finishing the year around 1.20+. till 2020 i see the eur/usd around 1.4 and in the very long run i am very confident that in the next crisis the eur/usd will reach tops of 2.0.
you may ask why? one among many factors is the gap that needs to be filled after brexit. many new jobs across many industries will move into the EU. Even a lot of eu institutions need to be relocated out of the UK and into the EU. this creates a lot of âeuroâ-jobs and according to statements of brussel amd berlin- struggeling euro countries will have a bonus when the relocation of this EU institutions will happen- creating jobs in these countries.
the second remarkable reason is that the euro, compared to usd, has a very low dept rate. the average dept of the european countries is at 80% of the european GDP. while usa is at 120%- and is planing (Trumps economic program) to increase this dept by anotger 20-30% in trumps 4 years president time.
the eurosystem has big growth potential in the banking sector. compared to other banks and locations like usa japan and uk- the european banks had a struggeling time over the last 9 years. mainly due to the fact that european banks operate in a different business model than uk and us based banks- their margin shrinks when the central bank lowers the basic interest rate. once the hike of interest rates starts in the EURO-zone banks will be more profitable adding to the security the euro is guaranteeing since years.
third of many reasons is the shift of pegged currencies. the counzries that pegged/are pegging their currencies to the dollar are decreasing in big nunbers. if i remember correctly around 19 countries stopped pegging their currency to the usd. euro pegged currencies thou are increasing and many countries will adopt the euro within the next 5-10 years. countries with a dept balance of 15-30% of gdp. adding to the worth and security of the euro.
call me crazy but in a few years- that im sure of- we will see a euro/usd of around 2.0.
Draghi was as expected, Weidmann continued the charade with another âend the QEâ speech, the games have begun.
Week 1 now complete, seems the UK guys have just wakened an are smelling the coffee, the BOE sent out a little reminder on this last day of the first week of the new EU27:
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/pra/Documents/about/letter070417.pdf
(PRA is as per the letterhead, FPC is Financial Policy
committee :Financial Policy Committee | Bank of England)