Interestingly (at least to me),
this chart https://invst.ly/3vvk6 shows you how every attempt by the Pound to trend since the
GFC (Great Financial Crisis) has failed, if you look at it from a multi-month sort of angle.
My biggest example that I always quote is the 2000+ pips rise and reverse over the sixteen months
from the summer of 2013, when former BoC governor Carney took the helm of the BoE and the
mad ‘rate hike’ frontrunning of the Pound by the usual suspects made the Pound run from about
1.50 to about 1.72 and then, when it all boiled down to a chimera, it all reversed like clockwork.
Since then, the Pound has meandered like a lost soul and the Brexit speculative fall has covered
the same distance: if I had to make a ‘prediction’ I would say that given that we are a year on
from the Brexit vote and a reversal has started to take shape, it is entirely possible that the
remaining six months may see a completion of this reversal to pre-Brexit-vote levels (around
1.40-1.45)… Whether one may want to call this ‘Pound strength’ or a ‘reversal of an uncalled-for panic selling’
is up to oneself, but how to trade it in these conditions is certainly a tough call in my modest
Of course, as Peterma and I have shared on previous occasions, there is always this well-oiled
market motto (though best suited to stocks, one could muse):