That was the end of last week, PA has remained significant, when looking at GBP this past week there has been a certain strength, perhaps a follow on from the election call, then buoyed on Tue by better than exp mfctr, Wed by better than exp construction and today on the services numbers.
Today alone should have been a big sell Eur/Gbp.
But since the gap close the opposite seems to apply.
Anyways, looking right the Euro is at a crossroads, next week has the potential to set the scene.
EURX making a triple top daily, helped by the mentioned gap, and of course an election.
Edit: never shy to give my opinion (or is it prediction :)) I think I would favour Eur, despite the numbers.
The importance for the 27 cannot be overestimated, Macron represents the new type of politician, straight and honest, not from the political elite.
I suspect that Pres Macron and Pres Trump will do business, many people regard them as opposites but they are not, disregard the media hype, these two guys will work together for the good of each their respective peoples.
Yeah, the gap thing, spoke about that over on gears.
Obviously it’s a Euro gap, Jack was mentioning Eur/Jpy - why this gap is such a big thing is the possibility of a double gap, so there are two gaps to aim for - not really a probability, je crois.
Bottom line is that the result remains Euro positive but do not chase
Eur/Gbp around current levels is very acceptable, extremes to either side makes business that little more difficult.
It’s all about planning coupled with a heavy dose of luck, I figure a 10 to 15% difference will prevail for most of this year, then likely the negotiations will go sour which would be Stg negative.
The upcoming UK election result has bittersweet expectations, a landslide could well signal a more dovish UK approach, or it could be the opposite, very difficult to fathom the signals from a ‘bloody difficult woman’, or is that just being a male me?
As the European trading session progresses, the gap up experienced at the Asian open last night in Euro pairs seems to have had a very.short lifespan; take a look at this 30-minute Eur/Gbp chart:
Yeah, hope none of the learners jumped in, there is a big gap on Eur/Jpy and Eur/Usd still to be closed, likely around that level before more Euro buying.
OK - will give this new software a try, old timers like me take a while to get used to new things so I’ll see how it goes.
The EU27 and indeed GBP traders are in somewhat of a quandary re the UK election this week.
On the one hand a Tory landslide would strengthen the PM’s hand and she has repeated the mantra that no deal is better than a bad deal (her advisers would have cautioned that a no deal would make life extremely difficult for UK business).
Then would a reduced majority strengthen the Parliment’s hand, causing yet more ongoing uncertainty - it would seem that either scenario could be GBP negative - if ever there was a case for ‘wait and see’ for both the 27 and GBP traders then this is it.
anything that weakens the power of UK parliament or prime minister is GBP positive and FTSE positive and EUR positive and “insert random shorting here”-positive.
simply because anything that “stops” or “disturbs” the “men walking the wrong path” (the cliff) is seen as very positive news.
this world wide relief on the sole fact that the UK leadership is beeing weakened on the path it chosed might should be a warning to UK citizen that their leaders truly are doing things very wrong. but im sure warnings are beeig taken lightly, just like before brexit vote.
long life UKIP… eh no wait… they just imploded didnt they?
continental europe news and politics advice UK to go back to monarchy and abandon democraty. the country was run smarter and more efficient under a totalitarian King. (or queen)
The exit polls were correct, Gbp sellers dominated - as I had outlined Gbp buyers were always going to be on the back foot regardless of the outcome.
Looking ahead, the arrangement with the DUP will be difficult.
Most UK people have little knowledge of these 10 MPs - EU 26 has even less.
The 27th member state, Republic of Ireland, will have already briefed them. The EU27 negotiating stance will remain unchanged. The changed UK political landscape is likely to lead to less harsh words from both sides which is a good thing and could well lead to some GBP buying in the shorter term.
The risk for the buyers lies with the stability of any arrangement that the Tory and DUP parties may agree.
My own knowledge of DUP is reasonably extensive, I would be hesitant on making a trading decision based on the premise of continued support for the next 5 years.
