Yes Pip of course. I was commenting more from a large speculator perspective. It is not likely you could have made all those trades but really with large accounts most speculators can gamble on holding their positions for some time. Yes, there is systemic risk and market risk of that time but the market risk is always to the downside in equities so if you selling you are generally fine. Forgive my use of the second person a habit I developed because my past did involve presenting so I had to use less of the first person to engage my audience.
You are quite right in any case, one does not simply just sellā¦ I still thought you illustrated structure quite well.
Sorry guys, just answering all the questions now so looks quite spammyā¦
My opinion is that the volume has risen in that congestion area after constantly falling in rising prices. We have several failed tops a massive bearish week structure has been violated, we could see a minor rally judging from the hammer or it could limit orders at support being triggered so a last gasp.
Looks like a short potential but I would need to see another red week before shorting for 23.6% Fib first target. R/R is bad at this stage so I would take a gamble now and get a better risk reward but trust your own feelings.
Looking forward to Monday, just started my charting for the week ahead. :).
I am going to be subscribing to Trading view for my charting package as a technical trader I believe good charts are the way forward. So you will start to see weird charts posted but it should be able to show my ideas better. So far I am enjoying the package.
If you donāt mind Iāll add my 2 cents. The colors can be confusing and misleading. But if you think of it like this, the pair is continuously one of 4 phases: Condensing, Markup, Distribution or Markdown. Thatās the continuous order. Doesnāt matter about colors it matters about phases. Look at the drawings and you can see what we mean
On your chart
Here is a great video on VSA you can fast forward to 10 minute mark if you want to and the last 10 minutes is what the presenter is selling. Iām not vouching for any products or services just his application of VSA. Once you get some practice in, you donāt have to buy anything. Applied Volume Spread Analysis in Short Term Trading - YouTube
I agree with both pip and emdoc. If it were me, no major news in the next 24 hours that will be earth shattering, short of that, daily is downward, 4 is ranging but still looking at the downside in my opinion. All three emaās read down, I would go short Greens would be my entries in this case first, Turquoise on the way down; red is stop and golds are take profit projections
Hi everyoneā¦
Thanks, Emerald, for your wonderful replies, and GP for your chart screenshotā¦
Here is my short entry order, waiting (brown dotted line at the bottom of the chart); NZD/JPY looking good to the downside, although I am not sure what the volume is doing, as I am using my mobile trading platform:
Thanks for the replies gentlemen. Value your views greatly. So I expect the pair will range for the next day. If its going to break short I expect that to happen Tuesday or Wednesday where I will then wait for a retracement back into what I have identified as my sell zone on the 4hr chart before going short. If this current movement is just a correction then I would expect the upper level to be breached later in the week and again I would wait for a retracement back into the buy zone before entrering. Either way no retracement no order as this would put me outside my comfort zone.
Bob
Best of luck and happy pip hunting this week all
Thank you emeraldorc for your response, it was just as elaborative as I had wished for. Iām going to write this down on my note and will be reading it again and again. And now Iāll have to put this into work and whilts Iām digesting all of this Iāll probably come back with a question or two
And thank you GP but I canāt open the attachments something must be wrong there! Glad to have found you here! I still do remember your advice learn to crawl first then walk, run and sprint I am learning to run now - barelyā¦
So have taken the plunge and entered short @ 85.25 Set SL at 86.25 just above what I see as a resistance level. Wasnāt quite expecting that move 1st thing today but trading from the tick charts have taught me to trade what I see and not to hesitate. So just trying to duplicate that here. Had a plan, break-retrace-enter and stuck to that. 85.25 proved to be a bit of a resistance level during morning trade so used that as an entry and got it. Looking at 80.00 as TP target but will monitor trade especially at fib levels and at 84.00.
But hereās my question even though its not quite on topic, is it normal to feel an emotional detachment to your trade? And do you think this is a good or bad thing?
Iāve been focused solely on the EURUSD tick chart for the past 5 months and have a very personal attachment to it. I feel its heat beat every moment of every day. So when I entered short on a long term trade at last weeks open I feel very comfortable with that decision. I donāt feel that with this trade and it takes me back to my first epic failures.
Iād like to redevelop my position trading skills as I think it would complement my current methods beautifully. But do you think you have greater success with instruments you have a more personal interaction with or is subjectivity a better approach?
Sorry computer is acting up. Here it is again. For some reason the description pdf didnāt come up, Iāll try later. But the 2nd video also explains each phase
The colors can be confusing and misleading. But if you think of it like this, the pair is continuously one of 4 phases: Condensing, Markup, Distribution or Markdown. Thatās the continuous order. Doesnāt matter about colors it matters about phases. Look at the drawings and you can see what we mean
Here is a great video on VSA you can fast forward to 10 minute mark if you want to and the last 10 minutes is what the presenter is selling. Iām not vouching for any products or services just his application of VSA. Once you get some practice in, you donāt have to buy anything.
Morning everyone. Today Iām going short on AUDUSD. Longer time frames showing pair is in a down trend. Nothing coming out on either pair til after NY Close but I expect to be out way before them. Analysis was done on a 30 minute chart and displayed on 5 minute cause for me anyway easier to read. For all the Wyckoff fans I added the chart with 4 phases But first Green lines are entry, red is stop loss gold are take profits
Aussie looks like it is about to dive on AUD/NZD buy limit at daily chart low of 1.7003. Made some nice intraday pips buying AUD/JPY. I guess you can all see my Gold trade is paying dividends +1200 pips there abouts currently. So today has been a good day.
My GU dissapointed closed out after the pair gave up more than 50 pips ended closing +9. Dollar weakness underway. Closed my EU yesterday +20 pips looked like the pair was struggling.
Yes Billie, emotional detachment from a trade is a good thing. It is the path to becoming mechanical. I am actually putting my military skills to use and planning trades. Will be using more limit orders in that respect.
I was considering Esignal but $20 per month versus $185 per month no brainer really. Trading view is great and I can final start using the volume tool to get volume at price data.
The low of that red long candle was 0.7737 lowest compared with previous candles. The volume was 17,942. Does it look alright ? Am I doing anything wrong ? and how do I know how far this will go on ? the buying ?
That pair in my humble opinion is still bearish. The spike visually matched the selling but there was another red candle proceeding after with hardly any volume at those lows. So logic dictates that this was later in the session, so there is some profit taking but on real buying. Looks like a failed break above previous high, so cannot assume the bulls are interested. There is however a small rise in volume across the green candle but my guess is this is HFT type buying.
My instinct says this will retrace on 0.786 Fibonacci of the previous leg down in which case the downtrend is likely to continue.
My bias for NZDUSD is bearish and I am looking to sell the pair. But I was thinking of using tick volume analysis to determine the end of retracement. I might be getting a little too creative. Not sure if I can use it that way. Iām having difficulty with my entries, I tend to go in a bit too early in the midst of correction and often left with no choice but to hold it through.
I like that you share your charts emeraldorc, lots to pick up from for a noob like me and Iāve got a question or two for GP the fibs master
