Hi Guys,
As we are about to start another week here is my round up for Cable.
Also guys my Live room will be starting on the 3rd of August and my Free webinar introduction to Trading the markets will be on the 1st.
I have attached the Gotowebinar link to register free for both. See you all there.
Webinar Not Available Webinar
Webinar Not Available Live room
Hi Emerald!
I hope you had a nice, relaxing weekend in London!
It has rained almost the entire day here in Scotland…and yesterday was grey and miserable!
Ah, and today was meant to be the ‘first day of summer’ … :S
Anyway, I just registered for your LIVE ROOM! Thanks for the links!
I shall watch the video tomorrow… I will keep an eye open on the EU situation, hoping to
go short on EUR/GBP, playing into Sterling strength…
Good luck trading out there!
Happy Trading.
The US Dollar has bounced at important support versus the Euro and Japanese Yen. In his Weekly Volume at Price Report, quantitative strategist David Rodriguez highlights the key levels he is watching next:
EUR/USD
[ul][li]Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
[/li][li]Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume[/ul]
[/li]
The Euro has failed at significant resistance starting near $1.14 and has broken through important support near $1.12. Support now turns to resistance at $1.12, while further price targets include monthly lows near $1.1050.
_
USD/JPY
[ul][li]Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
[/li][li]Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume[/ul]
[/li]
The US Dollar is currently trading at potentially important volume-based resistance versus the Yen in the ¥123.50-¥124.50 range, but a failure here leaves focus on recent lows near ¥122.60 and further volume-based support at ¥121.50. Trading above ¥124.50 leaves decade-plus highs of ¥125.85 as the next target.
Chart source: The Weekly Volume at Price Report on DailyFX.com
Retail Sentiment
As you see from the picture below, since Mid-March trader have been aggressively short EUR/USD. This has taken place as EUR/USD bounced off a decade plus low at 1.0462 retracing as high as 1.1460 so far.
Overlay of Trader Positioning at FXCM on EUR/USD via the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)
(Screen capture from DailyFXplus.com)
Sentiment favors further upside as you can see when the client positioning is heavily leaning one direction, it often aligns with a strong trend that they’re hoping is about to reverse. Additionally, you can see that Retail Open Short Positions are at their greatest exposure since the market peaked in spring of 2014.
_
Retail Volume
Volume is shown at FXCM via blue bars on the bottom of the chart. The higher the bar, the greater the volume transacted. The lower the bar, the lower the volume transacted and the less trustworthy a move is treated.
(Real Volume indicator from FXCMapps.com)
You can see below that the recent move into the May high is done on a sharp drop in volume meaning that price is moving higher with less and less support. Without a lot of support or multitude of buyers, a reversal could be quickly joined as a lot of money is likely on the sidelines ready to make their move.
Volume spread analysis is a very efficient way of trading.
[B]Daily Volume Chart: GBP/USD[/B]
[I]Chart created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr[/I]
[ul]
[li]GBP/USD has come under modest pressure these past few days after recording a multi-minth high last week
[/li][li]The general decline in volume since mid-May is unsupportive of a primary trend resumption at this stage
[/li][li]A divergence in the daily OBV is also a potential negative
[/li][li]A daily close below 1.5640 on above average volume is needed to turn the outlook negative on the pound
[/li][/ul]
Hi Guys, Interesting thoughts on Cable. Here are mine going into the week. Have a great week ahead and happy trading.
Hey Emerald, did you see that EUR/GBP gap to the downside tonight?
Holy moly!
Excellent video, Emerald!
I will be leaving some comments on your YouTube channel!
happened with eur/jpy too and also a few other pairs.
over 300 pips downfall
what is the reason for it?
and i had left a pending order over the weekend [rather stupidly], but for some reason i only got stung for a 10 pip loss with fxcm. the SL was 30 pips. infact i am suprised i did not get taken for the full 300 pips. how the hell did i end up with only a 10 pip loss? does fxcm employ guardian angels???
It has to do with what’s been going on in Greece.
If your stop loss order gets triggered, then it becomes a market order. With FXCM, both positive and negative slippage are possible, since we fill your orders as the best available prices from competing liquidity providers.
Due to the momentum of price movement when such order types are triggered, positive slippage is more common with limit orders and negative slippage is more common with stop orders. However, occasionally stop orders will get filled with positive slippage, which I’m glad happened for you in this case.
I did… This was likely a liquidity thing. The gapped got filled very quickly. This is what I was saying about taking longs on the Euro. What a strong move…
Greece imo gets fixed, Greece is more than just another Southern European nation under the German control. The world will save Greece or else Russia will to our peril…
Absolutely!!!
This is the perfect example of good analysis! Sure enough, after that gap down, this morning at the Frankfurt
open (7am GMT), there was a strong volume bar with an equivalent green candle on the hourly chart, from
0.70 to about 0.7075, which then launched the EUR/GBP back up to where we are now, namely 0.7150…
However, EUR/GBP is a slow mover, so I do not expect (under normal circumstances) this pair to move
up a few hundred pips in the matter of hours, like my ‘pair of the year’ GBP/NZD would!
Did you watch my video from last night? I would add to my opening charts, that the German DAX also
had a tremendous tumble last night, falling about 600 points(!) and coming back to last night’s lows around
twenty-four hours later (that is, now) after a feeble attempt at recovering about half of that loss in between…
Well, perhaps the EUR/GBP also seems quite a feeble attempt at recovering its losses, and, as you said in
your video, the Euro does still seem bearish in the medium to long term…
We shall wait and see!
Hi Pip. Will be catching up on your video tomorrow. So I will be sure to give my input. I have just opened another thread on TPO’s Market profile. Do follow and put your input guys. 301 Moved Permanently
It is shaping up to be an interesting week.
Hello traders!
Six months later, we are back to exactly the same level, under 6,600… Selling volume looks good and
I think the fact that a US holiday does not stop this downtrend now reaching a 600-pip sell-off means
that it is the path of least resistance…
Anyway, I am not advocating that this is the reversal we have all been expecting across the markets,
but it is surely making the right noises…
I have entered short two days ago and I am waiting to see where this goes…
Very Interesting your analysis on the FTSE.
People forget that FTSE 100 has very few British companies it is loaded with foreign exposure. It could be events in the Eurozone are causing the FTSE issues. I am not huge on UK stocks but if I am not mistaken the FTSE has a lot mining and industrial production type stocks. The mining sector is struggling along with energy.
On a technical note…
The FTSE does have a good chance at putting in 6300 bearing in mind the smart shorts would have positioned at around 6725, so they are looking to cover at this point. My idea is by 6300 they are done. If the covering is weak at 6300 then, we could see it forced into 6060.
The media should pull in some late shorts by then so we may start seeing initiative activity from larger commercials trying to cash in. It will be a brave soul who holds on after 5790.
That said. Let 6450 go first, then I will sit up and take notice. The FTSE is a horrible beast and it will wipe out the unsuspecting…
Yes, it is indeed a ‘horrible beast’!!!
I am cautiously counting my lucky shots here…
I am just seeing it as a good technical matching fundamentals, but you never know…
