A brief share, questions around volume, any contribution welcome

Trading Discussion
101

I agree 100%. In a demo account back in January 2014 opened a trade on GBPUSD using a fib retracement strategy, Support & Resistance and 200 SMA on a weekly and daily time frame. When I got stopped out I waited for the candle to close above or below and where ever it closed I entered. With the same pair, same strategy but on the daily and 4 hour time frames did the same thing. As well I entered same pair on 15 and 30 minute time frames but in addition to 200 SMA and S&R I added 2 SMA cross and Stochastic. The only time I didnā€™t use the cross was if Spread between the high and low was more than 50 pipsthen I used a fib retracement. As of June 1st I compared all 3 I did more trades as time frames went down, and made the most money not as big, but more on the 15 and 30 minute time frames.

A couple of weeks ago I after studying, Tick Volume and VSA, I follow, developed a strategy based on Larry Williams, Jess Livermore, Richard Wyckoff and Pete Fader that I can use on all time frames on trending, ranging and sideways markets. I took a trade last Friday after London closed and 2 hours before NY close and picked up 20 pips. However sometimes itā€™s better to be lucky than good. I wouldnā€™t trade again on Friday afternoon 2 hours before markets close for the weekend. I still like using the Fib Strategy I learned from Manesh Patel and Andre Knight, but I find it easier to take the information from Tech, Fundi analysis and Trader Sentiment and apply it using VSA S&R and Tick volume. Especially on the lower time frames.

I use a % per trade for profit and stop loss with the same goal as you; low risk and profit on more trades, so as to be able to capitalize faster and make an income. With regard to commissions, fees etc, My feelings are simeple. ā€œEveryone has to eat, and I donā€™t work for free so canā€™t expect anyone else to.ā€ I worry about value more than costs. In the long run, what price could you put on these words ā€œLet the market come to you never the other way aroundā€ This came from a course on Price Action where I paid $300. That $300 had a lot more value than costs. Or these next 2 that were free ā€œchoose profit not tops and bottoms.ā€ And my all time favorite from a weekly free video from Raghee Horner; ā€œIā€™m not a scalp, day or swing trader. Iā€™m just a trader.ā€ My 2nd favorite from our own ā€œthelastbear. . .itā€™s a tough business out thereā€. I would say to anyone looking for the holy grail? Learn to trade opportunity
Have A Good Weekend.
Gp

102

Yes, Moving averages always deliver as good entry points. Stops get hunted easily on them so I find checking volume that is driving the market is a good idea just to measure momentum.

Fibonacci is still boss for limit orders and exits, again I always check momentum and overall fundamentals. With a low risk profile of 10 pips I like retraces they give you at least 20 pips or close. I auto set to breakeven after the market moves 10 pips. If it reverses on me the trade has no momentum. This means to loose the entry has to be wrong from the start. Fib, S and R do the rest. I rarely deviate. The key is taking profits off the table.

When the markets settle I will go back to market orders on volume breaks and 61.8 closes. Retraces for now ensure the returns.

103

FxPro USDNOK h1 Xysnn | cTrader

Fridayā€™s trade. I normally switch off on Fridayā€™s but that was limit order so it got filled on Friday. Hope we are all looking forward to England V Italy :slight_smile:

104

Thought Iā€™ll share this. I donā€™t even know the guy but he speaks a lot of truth.

Jason talks with his Private Client Group

105

Thanks. Sad but so true.
Gp

106

Live trading 1 - YouTube

Live trading today. Hope you guys enjoy.

107

Here is a counter trend trade Iā€™m in this morning using VSA and Fib tool. Just waiting to see how far it retraces and then Iā€™ll switch and ride it back down. Anything possible, but I donā€™t see it changing from down trend to up trend, based on announcements sentiment and tech

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Switched Sides. Once it reaches between 38 and 23 fib levels, Iā€™ll switch from hard stop to trailing stop
Again used VSA and fib to plan trade.

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Before I forget, Original Plan was done on 30 minute time frame

108

I have been planning a lot this week. I have been a little off already sacrificed 30% of my profits, so getting my game face. I had 3 limit orders get filled and stopped so closed all my limit orders and acknowledge that the market isnā€™t predictable like in the past few weeks.

Back to good old fashioned candle by candle work. So took the day really working those charts and like a magic the picture returns. Well, there was a major sell off on GBP/USD at 1.6989 that combined with the CPI figures I think is a loud and clear message that despite the buying sentiment, the GBP is over valued and whether Carney will raise rates will become questionable if these figures keep showing up.

I am waiting for that 1.6938 level to go on some strong volume. I think the price is being marked up to 1.6984/89 Iā€™ll see what sellers think at those level. That may be the short of the week for me if all goes well.

FxPro GBPUSD h1 QXsnn | cTrader

109

I agree; hope youā€™re right; I got in at 1.69641. Good luck to the both of us :51:

As far as tough weeks, everyone has them; the problem isnā€™t tough weeks, itā€™s what we do or donā€™t do when they hit. I agree with you back to basics is the way to go. While Iā€™m waiting to see what happens with gbpusd I gonna watch both your videoā€™s

110

:59: The only thing better than listening to your analysis, was listening to your son break your balls. Took me back to the time when I would got to bed after playing poker for a couple of days, and my son coming into the bedroom and doing similar to your son. Anyway great analysis my friend

111

Haha! He definitely has me under control. He is a great kidā€¦

I am not in yet I am hoping for a return to those highs. In the mean time watching GBP/JPY as well, seems like it is at resistance already. Volume is piling up at those levels. It is normally a good correlation. I am waiting patiently.

113

Hi PMH,

FXCM now offers real trading volume information (both in terms of currency units traded and number of orders). As you can see from a 1-minute chart below of the recent ECB announcement thereā€™s definitely a correlation between Real Volume (top), Tick Volume (middle) and Transactions Volume (bottom).

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However, there is a notable difference when there is a large spike in real trading volume. The problem with tick volume is that it has no way of showing when a huge amount of volume trades at a single price, since that would be counted as a single tick. Real volume indicators can thus provide a more complete picture during major news event like this weekā€™s FOMC announcement.

114

Thank you, Jason,

I will try it tonight!!!

115

Dear Jason,

thank you for your invaluable input; I have gone to FXCM Apps and put my details in to request

the Real Volume indicator.

You are just fantastic!

Cheers

116

Thanks Jason, I have just been checking out the link on your facebook page.

117

Hi guys, Hi Pipme hi GP. I am sure you will be smiling about your one 1.6969 GU short because price is struggling after touching 1.6932 but stop needed to be wide the volatility sent price to 1.7000. Right about direction but not about the volatility. :slight_smile:

Surprised that 1.6936 area support held. I am going short if it breaks but doubt it will so I am limit up at 1.7005 if it goes there. All is hanging on that FOMC statement later. Gold is struggling to get above resistance. The USD is also moving against the NOK already. So we shall seeā€¦

118

All in a days work :50:

It sounds like you were put on the waiting list message when you tried to download the Real Volume and Transactions indicators. We reached the 500 downloads for our initial beta test group within just a few hours of the release!

I have good news though: Our initial tests with this user group have gone smoothly, so anyone whoā€™s currently on the waiting list, can get the Real Volume indicators now*.

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  • For those of you who arenā€™t on the waiting list, you can still get these indicators, if youā€™re one of the first 2000 people to download them. (Just in time for todayā€™s FOMC announcement! :D)
119

Hi Guys
I decided to jump in and out before afternoon announcements, I didnā€™t think there was very much trending today, at least til this afternoon. Anyway After checking economic calendar, reading Bloomberg news, and Dollar Spot index, my suspicions were correct so I went to my favorite pair gpbusd. I opened the 30 minute chart 30 minutes past NY open to see what the pair was saying so far and the 30 minute chart pretty much confirmed no trend or volatility, however pair was ranging

I drew a Resistance Line and a Support line based on 3 touches attempted to ride the range. I first adopted this strategy after watching a utube video YouTube

I donā€™t use daily in my opinion is will only confuse, Iā€™d rather go down a time frame. Nice when it works, I did a short entry closed it when it bounced and a doji showed up and went long and exited at original trade entry. After that I didnā€™t want to push my luck so thatā€™s it for today.

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120

GOT MY REAL VOLUME INDICATOR ON!!

One thing that came up, while I was trying on the S&P500 chart, was this:


Therefore, bear in mind that it will only work on these pairsā€¦

The new Real Volume indicator works beautifullyā€¦

In the screenshot here, you can see the Cable (GBP/USD) from the 12th of June to today (18th),

on an hourly chart: the new indicator is a true representation of volume, which allows for effective

Volume Price Analysisā€¦ For example, in the two instances highlighted with orange boxes, you

can see how in the first case (12th June) the high volume bar corresponds to a high spread

(bullish) candle; in contrast to this, the second example, which is from today, shows the

massive post-FOMC rate decision volume bar, and the rather small bullish candle, with a small

body and longer wicksā€¦ Sure enough, there was no momentum in that bullish move today,

with price crashing against that decade-only resistance (1.7000), whereas in the first example

there were another seventy pips left to said resistance, and the pair responded to volume by

moving up the whole distanceā€¦

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THANK YOU, FXCM, and thank you JASON ROGERS!!

Happy Trading!

121

FxPro GBPUSD h1 Xzsnn | cTrader

Yes GP I was looking to short at 1.6989 but then I saw the volume coming into that level then thought no, set a limit order at 1,7000 but then I saw the pair finding support at 1.6989, right then I new I need to have a buy stop above 1.7011 which was the weeks high.

My only regret is that I didnā€™t load 100k lot on this because my risk could only accommodate a smaller lot. Turned out to be a a THIRD WAVE move or at the least an extended C correction. I am looking for retrace back to 1.7001 or 1.7011 support if it holds we will have a Wave 5, may go higher or fail for a massive correction.

Who knows we will seeā€¦