A framework for trading


Excellent that you share your ideas. Kudos!

I was wondering how you determine when it is time to enter and when you decide to switch from long to short. I see the circles you drew, but how do you determine those when they occur and where do you get into the trade.

Somewhere you mention that you want to get thos big candles, but halfway those short term rallies I also notice big candles without circles, it seems that you skip those and get the next one, but this is not consistent in all your analysis.



Hey Toekan,

Cheers for your friendly reply. Here is a more clear explanation of my strategy using a trade i posted about earlier in the thread.

I analyse the retracements with a set format.

  1. Move down 1 timeframe. 2. Count 2 pushes down 3. Make a point of reference after 2nd push down with circle 4. Move down to a 3rd timeframe. 5. Look for periods of consolidation in the market double bottoms, higher lows/lower highs using circles to mark these areas after 2nd push down.

  2. Finally check for big news events coming up that could push my trade in preferred direction.

Here is what my AUDCHF trade looks like after I have completed this check list and I have marked it on my chart.

Here is the 30 min timeframe. I started on the 4hr, counted pushes of the retracement on the 1hr and then
analysed for periods of consolidation and higher lows on the 30min. This is where the circles are used.

The arrows with the vertical line is where i entered the market. The rectangle on the horizontal line is where i exited the market.

The aim for every trade is to catch the big candle which is always the beginning of a crashing market. :slight_smile:

I have been doing very well over the last year particularly using this methodology and am interested if anyone else uses this style of analysis.

I have been able to achieve great results in the last year by focusing on fundamentals which combines with price action analysis.

Knowledge of news events is not my area of expertise. So I am interested in helping others understand my price action analysis who are fundamentals traders so i can sustain if not improve upon my results.

I believe I am onto something big here and am keen to hear from people who are open minded to using a combination of price action and fundamentals. :slight_smile: :slight_smile:

Big crashing candle on the daily time frame is in motion as predicted as seen below.

If your in this trade I would let this run and move stops to break even. :slight_smile:


Thank you for explaining. I thought each circle was an entry point for you, but it is a serie. That makes sense to me.

Actually, I trade quite the same in one of my scripts, but only based on price-action. Summarrized it is as follows: (for buy)

  1. When the third bar from current is the highest of the last five bars, there is a Top.
  2. When the third bar from the current is the lowest of the last five bars, there is a bottom.
  3. I enter when price passes the Top, with Bottom as SL.

So your little circles are entry-points to me.

  1. When a new cycle formed, SL moves to the next bottom, until SL gets broken.
    Don’t trade it, as it is a summarry. But in essence it comes down to this.

Do you use MT4? I can make a small script for you identifying these points. MT4 can send you a notification when they occur.

Hey Toekan thanks for your kind gesture :).

Any type of automated system is incompatible with my trading style.

This is as i approach every trade differently and analyse the market in a
unique way whilst using the same principles every time.

I am creating a course about my trading strategy to make it easier for anyone who wants
to follow my analysis to understand.

Thanks for the offer. :slight_smile: And I hope your trading stays prosperous.

There is a major move coming up for NZD weakness across the board.

I see AUDNZD setting up for a huge long.

Anyone share my analysis for a weak NZD?

With New Zealand GDP missing bigtime today, and the constant chatter of Chinese stimulus helping the Aussie, AUD/NZD could be the pair to hit.

How do you pick levels to trade?

Hey donnyboy,

Before entering a trade I assess a lot of factors.

For example, higher lows, periods of consolidation, strength of cross pairs, upcoming fundementals, potential risk reward ratio and other factors that are more advanced.

In this trade for example I would be cautious about entering as we have just had AUD weakness across the board. Nevertheless, even if you entered this right now its worth taking as your profit target would be at 1.14000. With a stop loss of about 150 pips. This would be a risk reward of 4/1.

I dont take many trades maybe about 10 a year atm. Which can be frustrating as i will often see myself
predict big market crashes but only to see them get away from me without entry.

In the long term however I know patience rewards me. :slight_smile:

Its interesting that you mention the chinese stimulus, as these are the type of insights that will add to my ability to catch the beginnings of these crashing markets. :slight_smile:

As you can see below NZD is in its crashing market phase for the monthly time frame.

As you can see with the chart below NZD is in the middle of its crashing cycle on the monthly time frame.

The only pairs that have not begun crashing are GBP, AUD, and CAD.

The best of these pairs are either GBP or AUD. I would say AUD.

Once either of these pairs begins to make a recovery across their cross pairs i will expect to see major moves against the NZD.

There is a tonne of stuff for me to explain so any questions are welcome :slight_smile:

I would hold off on this for now.

It looks to me like the major NZD weakness is going to play out next week.

Would be interested if anyone has any fundamental analysis that might fit into my price action
analysis? :slight_smile:

Looks like NZD weakness will play out longer term.

Anyone share sentiments on CHFJPY for CHF strength?

Before getting into the market I will be looking for higher lows and a period of consolidation on the lower time frame.

If you were able to get into this trade I would now move stops to break even :):slight_smile:

For the people who have been private messaging me about the course I have talked about creating.
It is now ready!

To help people understand my strategy I have created a completely free course on udemy.
My course refers people to this thread were I include trades I have posted on here as examples in my course. :):slight_smile:

It is a lot easier for me to explain my analysis on here if I can link to my free course on udemy.
This way people will be able to follow my weekly analysis here if they took my course on udemy.

I was just double checking before I posted the link.

Cheers :):slight_smile:

Looks like we could be getting ready for a CHF weakness.

Does anyone share sentiments on a EURCHF LONG?

I would wait for a higher low at the point were I have marked the circle before you entered for a long.

The market made a higher low a little bit above the circle before it started to take off.

If you are in this trade I would move stops to break even and leave the trade on until the top of the retracement.

EURCHF turned around against us here. Nothing gained but also nothing lost if you moved stops to break even. :slight_smile:

Market dynamics have changed around NZD since I posted about it a few weeks ago. It no longer appears to be setting
up for major weakness any time soon.

In fact there is an opportunity to long it.

Anyone share sentiments on NZDCHF for a long. The optimal place was to get in were I have drawn the final circle
but obviously that has gone now.

Would be interested if anyone shares sentiments on a break out of 0.760 area that looks vulnerable to NZD strength to me.

We eventually broke through this area before turning around this is no longer an area of interest.

You would have needed a large stop loss to not have lost on this trade which is not my style. :slight_smile: