More chart review.
USDCHF on the daily might be looking interesting too.
Am I looking at a descending triangle here? Isn’t that bearish? Or does the breakthrough down on the 10th change that?
Looks like a squeeze is getting close. So I’ll watch this too.
So on the daily, the 3 red candles are there still moving down, A close above the last candle might take some time, so no trade right now.
Still moving up off the daily towards that triangle resistance trend line. Maybe it gets interesting in the next by the end of week.
USDJPY
Man, this thing also broke a trend line.but drop to 4h and 1h, no momentum up. So more waiting I think.
This broke up above the trendline, above 135.50 and its still going. Interesting to see if this holds through the weekend.
USD is booming, so this is helping USDJPY. Might look to enter.
Also looking at EURGBP. Almost met all the trade rules, except the EMAs, but it’s getting close.
Took this trade yesterday at 135.87. It’s moving! Up to 138.75.
Goes to show that some analysis from a top dog website said that momentum was fading and a drop was more likely.
So now I’m in that same situation. Up 100+ pips. What to do with this SL.I had it at 2 x ATR, so all the way down at 132.87 I think.
I’m moving it to BE at least. I could come back and check every couple hours or just wait until market close.
Not sure just yet. 137.64 is the next resistance level I think. It’s the closest high anyway. Maybe if it stalls there, I’ll take some profits. If it keeps going up, I’ll watch it every hour or so since it is a Friday.
I kept a journal for a long time too. But the truth is, I change the way I trade often just because of my mood that day. I have a main strategy that has a high win rate for scalping. But if I don’t want to wait for the setup, I have been placing pending orders in both directions on 5 or 6 pairs on a 1H chart with a small TP and a larger SL. That way I can be reasonably assured to make some profit that day the easy way.
That’s a strategy that usually works, but I’ve always done it with Smoothed MAs, not EMAs.
Wishing you all the best!
Hey, thanks for the comments!
So not a believer of the reward to risk, risk to reward of 1:1 or greater? It’s hard to take the advice of having a large enough SL but also keep your risk to reward at at least that.
I’ll give that a shot and see if gives me more signals/trades. Cool!
Came down to 136.81 and I closed the trade. Didn’t want to lose any more of the gains. but walked away with almost 100 pips.
I ended up opening another long yesterday at 136.83. I just felt the pair still going to follow trend up.
So I’m in the trade and up!
I don’t like that going 1:1RR causes losing trades even though they are usually in profit at some point. I want the profit, even if its less than a 1 to 1. So on a buy trade, if I get a direction change signal, I’m out.
When I’m placing pending orders in both directions the larger SL gives price the breathing room so either the SL is not hit and the trade had the best chance of winning, or it gets hit but I recover some or all the loss on the opposite pending order.
I’ve started placing multiple pending orders in both directions on the same currency pairs too. Spreading them out so I can catch big movements.
So far, so good.
I look forward to semi-retirement in a couple of years so I can keep an eye on the charts and let the winning trades run longer. It is hard seeing all the money I leave on the table by setting my smaller profit targets.
I’m wishing you much success!
I’ve enjoyed reading many of your posts in the forums.
I was up, turned my head for a minute (exaggeration), and the market dumped on me! 100+ pips gone, SL hit on USDJPY.
That one hurt.
Opened a USDJPY trade per rules above at 136.77.
ATR was at .26 so I set my SL to 136.25 or 2 X ATR. Guess where price went while I slept?
Stopped out as price hit 136.16.
Boo!
Time to bet against USDJPY?
On the daily, a couple of rejections moving towards resistance at 139.39 On the 4h is looks like the bears are winning.
Also, USD pairs in the red. JPY denominated in the red. Could it be that simple?
EUR pairs in the green.
Hmmm lets go short on this baby.
Short 138.59
SL at 139.40
TP at 137.70
So SL is above the record high which, man, I’ll be surprised if we break.
Man, USDJPY has been taking more than giving back.
Went down 50 pips on a short trade which was great, but then price exploded up into my SL. Got blown away. Went against the trend, so that’s my fault.
Per my strategy rules,
USDCHF looks prime.
So, long at 9610.
SL at 9482
Actually, I’ll have to wait a bit. The MAs aren’t where they need to be. But I’ll watch this pair and maybe set a limit order to catch a move up.
Ummm, the markets have been crazy the last couple of trading days. US inflation is out later in the week. And everything not USD is falling.
EURUSD looks interesting, as it’s at RSI lows but man that’s still a of red the last week. I’ll keep watching, but maybe it’s time to long EURUSD. Any takers?
Been watching GBPUSD today since it just went crazy the last week and before. No trade though. Looking into some order flow indicator as well.
Okay, watching EURUSD for a break of trend. Price on the daily is getting close to the top of my channel, but I’m watching the 4hr and 8hr too.
Weekly is down. Daily showing the move up is slowing down. Next day or two should have some action. I’ll be watching! Maybe a small move down and then a pop up.
No trade but jotting down GBPUSD notes as I was chatting about it elsewhere.
Price is currently at 1.1455. Long term trend is down. I watching to see what price will do on the 1hr, 4hr and daily as I’ve marked up some fib retracement, BB and some interesting areas where price could go.
I want to see if my analysis holds up. I’m expecting to break the upper trend line on the 1hr and then a move down.
Zone1 1.1423-1.1401
Zone2 1.1287 to 1.1237
Price could hang around the upper band for a while., and it could even break back up above.
Haven’t even looked at the other direction, but quick eye ball shows 1.1738 as the next high.
Let’s watch that 1 hr on London open.