If you are often surprised or frustrated by big market movement or sudden swing in price action, try to incorporate zone trading (e.g. S/R, S/D and pivot zones) based on higher time frames such as weekly and monthly time frames into your market analysis.
Trade safe and prosper.
Nuggets
‘I focus my total attention on trading well, and let the results take care of themselves.’ – Tom Basso
I am a swing trader. And being a swing trader, in my own regime, will necessarily involve understanding and mastery of market structure. I would not want to spend hours each day glued on my trading screen but use a few hours per week, to manage my trades or scan for profitable trading opportunities. I realize that I need to know more than using technical indicators. I base much of my trading on market structure, including order flow analysis. Of course, in my books, there is some place for the right use of a few technical indicators.
Trade safe and prosper.
Just Sharing
It is a good strategy to wait for price action to retest any identified turnaround zone (e.g. S/R and other pivots) after a news item and trade in the major technical direction of the market as identified on an HTF long before the news item. Never chase the price and never be fooled by a sudden strong move on account of any news item. Let the heat, wave or storm ebb or simmer first.
Trade safe and prosper.
Price action on the AUDUSD looks ambivalent to me at this point. On the H4 time frame, recent price action is in consolidation. Bears are testing a support trendline (magenta) and price action printed a pinbar-like candlestick around the trendline toward the close of session on Friday. However, the three bearish candlesticks formed during the last three sessions on Friday failed to breach the bullish candlestick formed during the session preceding them. As last week Friday was a relatively thin trading day, we may not read much to the candlesticks formed. However, the fact that price action is still respecting the support trendline indicates that we have to wait for clarity in the early days of this week. This is more so as price action on the H4 time frame is yet to breach a resistance trendline (blue) from recent highs. Bulls may retest the resistance trendline before they give way to bears. I will stay on the sidelines for now.
Trade safe and prosper.
Price action on many Forex pairs is in sideways mode. Staying on the sidelines until there is clarity of price action may be a wise decision, unless perhaps for scalpers.
Trade safe and prosper.
After completing the weekly screening and analysis of the pairs on my watch list today, I will look for opportunities to sell USDJPY and buy EURAUD this week.
The USDJPY will have to reach the 38.2 Fib retracement of the most recent downward swing on the weekly time fame, which is around the 108.430 area, before I will be interested in a sell trading opportunity.
For EURAUD, I will look for a southward pullback of price action to around the monthly pivot (i.e. around 1.59450) before I look for a buy trading opportunity.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
I am staying on the sidelines for now because many markets are largely operating sideways.
Trade safe and prosper
I have just completed my pre-week analysis of pairs on my watch list. Based on my analysis, I will look for the opportunity to sell USDJPY, EURJPY and EURGBP this week. Although I had a technical bias on the sell side for USDJPY last week, price action retraced northward and the markets were generally ambivalent (sideways) so I stayed on the side lines. I am looking to sell the pair after the current northward retracement, which to me is a mere correction.
Trade safe and prosper.
I have just completed the weekly scan and analysis of the pairs on my watchlist. I’ll be looking for opportunities to trade EURUSD and GBPUSD southward if the price action on each of them retraces northward to retest the immediate support broken down on the daily time frame.
Trade safe and prosper.
In the case of the EURUSD, a retest of the consolidation zone broken down last week will be of interest to me.
One of the things which I do to keep me out of trouble in Forex trading is weekly screening and analysis of pairs on my watchlist leading to a selection of 2-3 pairs to track and possibly trade during the week. I don’t normally trade a pair which I had not screened and planned for during the weekly analysis.
Trade safe and prosper.
I will be tracking the EURUSD market this week for a sell trading opportunity. Here’s why.
On the H4 time frame, price action has turned northward and a support trendline (magenta) is in play. However, this is likely a temporary retracement given the bearish disposition of price action on the weekly time frame. A break of the support trendline on at least a four-hourly closing basis may flip it to resistance and give impetus to a southward turn around. An initial target of bears is the minor horizontal support around the 1.18210 area.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
I am bearish on GBPUSD. However, I will wait for price action to pull back northward to a significant area of value, perhaps to around 1.35620/1.36240, before looking for a sell trading opportunity.
Trade safe and prosper.
Price action on H4 time frame the EURUSD has retested the low of the candlestick formed on the weekly time frame two weeks ago and rejected it southward. It has also rejected the weekly pivot. As a swing trader, that’s a cue for shorting the pair.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
I already have a sell position open on the USDJPY. This week, I will look to adding to my position based on the technical analysis on the pair during the weekend. On the weekly time frame, price action is operating at the resistance zone of a falling channel (navy) and within a larger wedge pattern (navy). Last week, a bearish engulfing candlestick was printed which broke below a support trendline (magenta) from the low of September 2012. In actual fact, it was a retest of the trendline earlier broken in February 2018, which is apparently being flipped for a bearish continuation. If bears are able to breach the monthly pivot (108.150) southward, the horizontal support (purple) around the 105.780 may be exposed.
The H4 time frame shows that price action has breached a support trendline (red) after a 78.6 Fib retracement of the drop from the high of January 8, 2018 to the low of March 23, 2018. A resistance trendline (black) is in play and its retesting by price action may validate it for a southward momentum.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
I have just concluded my pre-week analysis of the pairs on my watch list. On a short-to-medium term basis, I am bullish on the EURUSD, EURJPY and GBPUSD. However, my longer term view is bearish on each, which is likely to kick in after a northward retracement of price action to, and retest of, the most recently breached S/R zone on the daily time frame.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
I will hold a bullish bias on the EURUSD market on a short term basis this week. On the H4 time frame, a descending trendline (red) from the high of May 2018 may be a magnet for a bullish drive as the price action is presently disposed northward. A minor horizontal resistance is around the 1.18580 area, an area which was the origin of a strong bearish drive two weeks ago, and may be flipped once again as resistance. A breach of the area northward on a daily closing basis is likely to see further bullish move to around the 1.19900 area.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
I wil look to sell USDCAD on a short term basis. Here’s why.
On the H4 time frame, bears are taking the market southward. However, from the small bearish candlestick printed in the last session of Friday, it is apparent that bears were losing their influence. So, we may see bulls give them a struggle in the early part of this week before a southward continuation materializes. Besides, we may expect the market to pull back northward for a retest of the broken previous horizontal support zone around 1.32050/1.32280, possibly for a role flip. We may have to also note the descending trendline (magenta), which may need be retested with a northward retracement by price action to confirm it as an active support before a southward continuation. Overall, the short term technical disposition on the USDCAD is bearish and we may see bears target the support around 1.29090 area.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
How to trap the market then?
