I will look to trading USDJPY southwards this week. Here’s why, from a technical perspective.
The pair has been on the descent on the weekly time frame since December 2015. It entered a corrective mode in November 2016 and peaked at the 78.6 Fib level in December 2016, respecting a major descending trendline (chocolate colour) which began in October 2015. Price action since November 2016 tends to align with an inner descending trendline (dotted line in chocolate colour). Two weeks ago, a bullish candlestick formed to validate the inner trendline and got pushed back by bearish pressure around a resistance zone. Last week an engulfing-like candlestick formalized the bearish influence and disposed the price action further southwards. Nevertheless, the overall price action is taking place in area of consolidation and so the momentum for further downward movement may be limited.
On the daily time frame, price action is on a descent with strong bearish influence. However, as price action is in a consolidation zone (khaki colour) within an S/R area, price may need to retrace upwards to retest the inner descending trendline of the weekly time frame or the immediate resistance zone around 115.850 before a more confident move southwards. It should be realized that the zone has held as support since mid-January 2017. Should price break the zone to the downside, an initial target is likely to be 113.100, a significant round number which aligns with the previous low of March 2016.
On the H4 time frame, price action is largely bearish. However, the momentum is hindered by some consolidating influence of bulls. The most recent price action, with predominant low-wicky candlesticks, indicate a high probability for a move upwards before any further bearish move. A probable area for an upward corrective move is the 32.8/50 Fib zone which adjoins 113.680 – 114.030 and potentially a flip zone, having served as a resistance and support for a while on the H4 time frame.
[B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe and prosper.