[B]WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD[/B]
Update time: September 30, 2007 23:43 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.4270...Euro rallied over 200 points last week, staying above the 'psychological' 1.4000 level (now support) and rising sharply on Friday in line with the greenback's broad-based selloff due to soft U.S. economic data and dollar-bearish comments from ex-Fed chief Greenspan. The single currency hit another new record high at 1.4283 in Australia this morning before easing.
Looking at the daily chart, price is trading well above the 13-day EMA (currently at 1.4068) and a further gain to 1.4361 (50% projection of 0.8228-1.3670 from 1.1640) and then towards 1.4463 (equality projection of 1.2484-1.3683 from 1.3264) is likely, but as the 13-day RSI and daily stochastics are already in overbought territory, reckon that 1.4500 would limit upside and yield a much-needed correction later this week. On the downside, below the 1.4112/33 support area signals a temporary top is made and a break of 1.4061 (Tuesday's low and also below 13-day EMA) confirms, brings a retracement to 1.4000 1st.
Today, as long as 1.4190 (previous resistance and present level of the 55-hour EMA) holds, one more rise to 1.4310/20 is seen before the prospect of a pullback due to overbought conditions. Below 1.4190 would risk a retreat to 1.4150 (38.2% retrace of 1.3936-1.4283)...
