AceTraderForex Apr 15: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

Trading Discussion Currencies
21

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views [/B]

[B]28 May 2014[/B] [I]01:13GMT[/I]

[B]USD/MAJ [/B]
Fed’s Lockhart says:
Labor market tightening in certain industries and regions, points to skilled trades in places like Louisiana’s oil sector;
Some aspects of labor market may be approaching full employment, others remain very weak;
No strong preference whether taper ends in October or December;
Important to global system that U.S. follow all BASEL requirements;
Fed still in early days of testing new tools for controlling future interest rates;
Inflation above 2 percent should not be ruled out, says a measured overshoot is ok up to 2.5 percent;
Fed should continue reinvesting bond proceeds until it begins to raise rates.
“considers long-term neutral Fed funds rate at around 4%; does not believe economy will be weak over the long run; does not believe there is a skills mismatch between jobs and job-seekers, feels stronger growth will absorb labor slack.”

Economy should rebound to near 3 percent growth in Q2 after poor start;
Despite optimism, Fed still needs patience, “confirming evidence” of sustainable growth before lifting interest rates;
No rush to raise rates, sees no increase until second half of 2015;
Transition to rate increases will need careful execution and clear communication;
Labor market still slack and well short of full employment;
Improvement in labor outlook will be steady but not “dramatic”;
Inflation will increase to the Fed’s target only over the medium term.

[B]Data to be released on Wednesday: [/B]

Australia Westpac leading index, China industrial profits YTD, Switzerland GDP, Germany import price index, unemployment rate, unemployment change, France PPI, Italy business confidence, economic conference, euro zone economic conference, industrial conference, consumer conference, service conference, business climate indicator and U.K. CBI reported sales.

22

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views [/B]

[B]29 May 2014[/B] [I]01:32GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY - 101.70[/B]

New on BOJ’s Shirai speech:
Positive cycle of output, income, expenditure likely to continue in Japan;
Downside risks subsiding somewhat but still need to be mindful of them;
Japan prices likely to gradually rise around 4Q 2014;
Will take some time for medium-, long-term inflation expectations of households to rise as a trend;
Downside risks on Japan price outlook subsiding somewhat, but still need monitoring;
Must scrutinise economy, price moves after second sales tax hike to see whether 2 pct inflation will be sustained stably;
My economy, price forecasts are made on assumption QQE will be maintained beyond 2015;
Feel Japan will need more than 2 years to achieve 2 pct inflation under current flexible inflation targeting;
Expectations of households to rise as a trend.

[I]00:51GMT [/I]
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang says will adopt timely and moderate “fine tuning” of economic policy;
fundamental fiscal and monetary policy will remain intact.

[B]
Data to be released on Thursday : [/B]

Japan retail sales, Australia HIA new home sales, private capital expenditure, China leading index, Canada current account balance, U.S. GDP, personal consumption, core PCE, initial jobless claims, pending home sales.

23

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

30 May 2014[/B] [I]01:55GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY - 101.62[/B]

Early release of Japan’s economic data showed that Japan’s inflation accelerated in April to a 23-year high while industrial output and household spending fell after a sales-tax increase. Consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 3.2% y/y in April after a 1.3% increase in March.

A piece of news worth mentioning, Board member Sayuri Shirai said on Thursday the BOJ’s unprecedented easing could last beyond next year and downplayed the bank’s optimism that inflation would reach its target in fiscal 2015.

The greenback fell to 101.43 on Thursday due to cross buying in Japanese yen, however, short-covering lifted price to 101.79 in Australian morning b4 easing. Some bids are located at 101.55-50 with stops building up below 101.40 n 101.35. On the upside, some offers are tipped at 101.75/80 n 101.95/00.

Japan’s MOF’s Furusawa says that there are indications Japan’s economy is entering a virtuous cycle; is no longer in deflationary situation.

Japan EconMin Amari says that April CPI shows the sales tax hike is being passed on effectively.

[B]Data to be released on Friday: [/B]

New Zealand building permits, U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, Japan jobless rate, overall household spending, National CPI, Tokyo CPI, industrial production, housing starts, construction orders, China leading index, Germany retail sales, Switzerland KOF leading indicator, Italy PPI, CPI, Canada GDP, U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE, Chicago PMI and University of Michigan confidence.

24

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

03 Jun 2014[/B] [I]01:13GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY - 102.39[/B]

BOJ governor Kuroda says various means are available if BOJ were to exit QQE; how to exit QQE, including what to do with BOJ’s JGB buying, will depend on price, market developments at the time; don’t see limits to options available to BOJ if it were to ease again to ensure achievement of 2% inflation target.

BOJ says key monetary official Amamiya to be reappointed as executive overseeing monetary policy department.

BOJ governor Kuroda says too early to debate specific plans on exiting BOJ’s QQE policy; taking about specific exit strategy at too early a stage could create confusion in markets, as seen in overseas examples; it’s true we will need to debate exit strategy when 2% inflation is achieved in stable manner, but too early to do so now.

BOJ’s Kuroda says BOJ won’t rule out adjusting policy if achievement of price target becomes difficult, but as of now Japan moving steadily toward meeting the target.

He then says “private consumption likely to remain firm as a trend despite impact of sales tax hike”.

BOJ’s Kuroda says Japan’s output gap has narrowed to near zero but how demand performs remain important.

Earlier, Reuters news quoting source fm the Nikkei, Japan GPIF’s asset allocation committee head says raising Japan stock weighting to 20% wouldn’t be too high.

BoJ Governor Kuroda says “expect Japan consumer inflation to reach 2% around fiscal 2015”; “won’t hesitate to adjuest policy if risks threaten achievement of 2% inflation target”; “hope Japan govt steadily proceeds with steps to boost Japan’s growth potential”.

25

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY, AUD/USD

04 Jun 2014[/B] [I]01:56GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY - 102.61[/B]

Despite y’day’s brief retreat to 102.27, the greenback ratcheted higher against the Japanese yen to 102.55 in NY n then 102.67 in Asian morning due to the selloff in U.S. Treasuries. The U.S. 10-year yield climbed to 2.6% yesterday, the highest level since May 14, due to that speculation that the Wed’s release of U.S. ADP empolyment report will show the U.S. added more than 200,000 jobs for a third month.

Bids are now located at 102.40-20 n more at 102.05-00 with some stops seen below 102.00. On the upside, some offers are tipped at 102.75-85 with mixture of offers n stops seen at 103.00.

04 Jun 2014 [I]01:34GMT[/I]

[B]AUD/USD - 0.9285[/B]
The Australian dollar jumped to 0.9299 after the release of robust Australia’s GDP data which came in at 1.1% q/q n 3.5% y/y versus economists’ forecast of 0.9% q/q n 3.2% y/y respectively.

[B]Data to be released on Wednesday: [/B]

Australia GDP, Japan Markit service PMI, Itarly Markit/ADACI service PMI, France Markit service PMI, U.K. Halifax house prices, Markit/CIPS service PMI, euro zone service PMI, producer prices, GDP (revised), U.S. ADP national employment, trade balance, productivity (revised), labor costs, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Canada trade balance, exports, imports, BoC rate decision.

26

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Jun 2014[/B] [I]01:31GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY - 102.57[/B]
Statement quoted from BOJ’s Sato:

Japan economy likely to resume moderate recovery trend from summer onward;
Expected gradual recovery in exports likely to heighten likelihood of economy moving in line with BOJ’s scenario;
There is risk eurozone may suffers from prolonged period of disinflation mainly in peripheral nations;
Must be mindful of chance U.S. inflation may stay lower than desirable levels in longer-term perspective;
Japan’s economy somewhat undershooting, prices overshooting, initial projections;
Underlying overshooting of inflation due in part to rises in energy costs, weak yen, capacity constraints;
QE’s intended transmission channels, such as portfolio rebalancing n rises in inflation expectations, not appearing as much as expected so far;
Monetary policy policy must be guided flexibly with eye not just on economy n prices, but on risks including financial imbalances;
BoJ’s price target by no means a rigid, superficial framework that simply aims to achieve 2% temporarily;
Must avoid any misunderstanding that BoJ is solely pursuing pickup in prices without due attention to economy;
Natural for nominal interest rates to face upward pressure when unconventional monetary policy begins to exert intended effects;
BoJ’s price target is a flexible framework in which some degree of latitude. both upside n downside, is accommodated;
BoJ policy, including eventual exit fm QE, shouldn’t be swayed by consideration to fiscal sustainability.

[B]Data to be released on Thursday: [/B]

Australia trade balance, export and import, China HSBC Service PMI, France ILO unemployment rate, Germany industrial orders, U.K. Halifax house prices, euro zone retail sales, BoE rate decision, ECB’s rate decision, U.S. jobless claims, Canada building permits, Ivey PMI.

27

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

08 Jul 2014[/B] [I]04:43GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - BoJ Nakaso on his speech said & quote:

“Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately as virtuous cycle among production, income, and expenditure has kept growth momentum intact.”
“Exports will probably start to pick up gradually if not dramatically as global economy recovers.”

Dlr edges higher to 101.85 after his statements, having touched a low of 101.69 in Tokyo morning session.

Earlier quoting comments by BoJ Deputy Governor Nakaso who was speaking in Tokyo to a joint luncheon of the American Chamber of Commerce in Japan (ACCJ), European Business Council in Japan (EBC), and Swiss Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Japan (SCCIJ):

  • we intend to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent at the earliest possible time by steadily pursuing qqe
  • under qqe Japan appears to finally have embarked on path toward overcoming deflation
  • strongly hope that the government will continue to implement the growth strategy unwaveringly
  • with supply capacity constraints having surfaced, now is a golden opportunity to address Japan’s longstanding challenge of raising growth potential
  • BOJ already has an extensive range of operational instruments to exit from qqe
  • past BOJ monetary policy lacked strong enough commitment to price stability
  • exit policies should be designed depending on prevailing economic and inflation situation at the time
  • premature to discuss the specifics of an exit from qqe at this stage
  • BOJ has no intention of going beyond its mandate of achieving its price target, has no intention to monetise govt debt
  • BOJ’s current commitment to achieve 2 pct in two year horizon does not mean boj will end qqe in two years
  • BOJ is committed to continuing with qqe as long as necessary
  • BOJ will adjust policy without hesitation if judged necessary for achieving its price target
  • CPI growth likely to slow temporarily especially through the summer but is likely to accelerate thereafter
  • qqe raises inflation expectations, which provides room for further easing as this helps lower real interest rates
  • U.S., UK and Euro area economies are on recovery trend but their output gaps remain negative
  • Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately as virtuous cycle among production, income, and expenditure has kept growth momentum intact
28

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

28 Jul 2014[/B] [I]02:43GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - .... The greenback continues to trade with a soft bias in Tokyo this morning after cross-inspired retreat from Friday's 2-week peak at 101.94 to 101.72 in NY as weekend's events in Russia-Ukraine n Middle East boosted yen demand at Tokyo open (eur/yen weakened 1 tick below Fri's 136.65 low).

Expect range trading to continue in Asia until European open, however, as the N225 index has shrugged off initial loss after Fri’s decline in the Dow n has climbed to a fresh 6-month peak of 15.556, suggesting buying on dips is favoured. Later today, investors should pay attention to the release of Markit service PMI for U.S. n U.S. pending home sales data due at 13:45GMT n 14:00GMT respectively.

At the moment, offers are noted at 101.90-00 n around 102.10 with stops emerging abv 102.30. On the downside, bids are placed at 101.50-40 n then 101.30/25 with stops located below 101.20.

[B]Next week[/B] will see the release of U.S. Markit Services PMI Flash, pending Homes Index and pending sales change on Monday; Japan’s unemployment rate and retail sales, Australian HIA home sales, Germany import prices, U.S.

Redbook and consumer confidence[B] on Tuesday. [/B]

Japan’s industrial output, industrial production forecast, Swiss KOF indicator, Eurozone business climate, economic and services sentiment, Germany’s CPI and HICP, U.S. ADP employment, Canada’s producer prices, U.S. GDP and FOMC rate decision[B] on Wednesday. [/B]

U.K. GfK consumer confidence, Australia’s building approvals and private home approval, Japan’s housing start and construction orders, Germany’s unemployment rate, Canada’s GDP and U.S. Challenger layoffs and Chicago PMI [B]on Thursday. [/B]

China’s NBS manufacturing PMI, Australia’s PPI, Japan’s manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI final, U.S. unemployment rate, Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, PCE price index, private payrolls and non-farm payrolls, University of Michigan consumer confidence and ISM manufacturing PMI [B]on Friday. [/B]

29

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

29 Jul 2014[/B] [I]01:33GMT[/I]

Statement from BoJ’s broad member Koji Ishida, quote:
‘Japan’s economy continues to recover moderately;
exports continue to move sideways, lacking momentum;
structural factors, such as shift of Japan firms’ production overseas, may be partly behind soft exports;
capex expected to increase moderately as a trend;
next month’s Q2 GDP data likely to show negative growth but economy’s positive momentum seen intact;
effect of April sales tax hike likely to subside gradually;
labour market conditions likely hold key to whether household spending will remain firm;
want to scrutinise whether companies increasingly translate costs to consumers through higher prices;
environment surrounding exports to gradually improve as global growth pick up, tough uncertainty remains;
QQE exerting intended effects on markets, Japan’s 10-year JGB yield remains at very low levels;
inappropriate to judge if BoJ’s target by looking at core CPI alone, must take into account other data too to guage overall price trend.’

[B]Data to be released on Tuesday: [/B]

Japan unemployment rate, retail sales, Australia HIA home sales, Germany import prices, U.S. Redbook retail sales and consumer confidence.

30

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

30 Jul 2014[/B] [I]00:59GMT [/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- .... Statement Japan MTEI Official Quote:

‘industrial production shows shipments falling for 5 straight months, which is similar to last time Japan entered recession.’

Last night U.S. President Obama announced expanded sanctions against Russia on Tuesday, just hours after the European Union imposed its most sweeping measures yet penalizing Moscow for its role in supporting separatists in neighboring Ukraine.

[B]Wednesday[/B] will see the release of Japan’s industrial output, industrial production forecast, Swiss KOF indicator, Eurozone business climate, economic and services sentiment, Germany’s CPI and HICP, U.S. ADP employment, Canada’s producer prices, U.S. GDP and FOMC rate decision.

31

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

31 Jul 2014[/B] [I]01:05GMT[/I]

Statement just released by the IMF quote:
‘reiterates China 2014 GDP growth forecast at 7.4 pct, 2015 GDP growth at 7.1 pct;
appropriate for China to set 2015 GDP growth target at 6.5-7 pct;
some directors feel an even lower 2015 GDP growth target is appropriate for China;
China should not deploy broad stimulus unless GDP growth well under target level;
reiterates that yuan is “moderately undervalued”;
weakness in China real estate sector poses near-term risks for economy; urgent for China to push reforms as current path of growth is unsustainable; near-term risks in china economy manageable due to gov’t policy buffers.’

Yesterday, The Federal Reserve pressed ahead with its plan to wind down its bond-buying stimulus and upgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy, while reaffirming it is in no rush to raise interest rates.

The central bank cut its monthly asset purchases to $25 billion from $35 billion, leaving it on course to shutter the program this fall.

The Fed reiterated that it would likely keep rates near zero for a “considerable time” after its bond buying ends and restated that an “accommodative” policy was needed.

The Fed has kept overnight rates near zero since December 2008 and has more than quadrupled its balance sheet to $4.4 trillion through a series of bond purchase programs.

But it cited improving labor market conditions and declining unemployment and acknowledged rising inflation.

[B]Thursday [/B]will see the release of U.K. GfK consumer confidence, Australia’s building approvals and private home approval, Japan’s housing start and construction orders, Germany’s unemployment rate, Canada’s GDP and U.S. Challenger layoffs and Chicago PMI.

32

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

06 Aug 2014[/B] [I]02:39GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - .... The greenback went through a roller-coaster session on Tue. Although price found renewed buying at 102.46 in Asia n climbed steadily in Europe due to recovery in the Nikkie future, price then hit session high of 102.93 after the release of a slew of upbeat U.S. data (ISM non-manufacturing PMI n factory orders), active cross-buying in yen due to risk aversion due to sell off in U.S. equities on renewed geopolitical tension in the Ukraine pressured price sharply lower to 102.48ahead of NY close b4 staging a minor recovery to 102.64 in Australia.

Today, range trading is envisaged n intra-day broad-based strength in the greenback suggests mild upside bias remains. However, do pay attention to the U.S. trade balance at 12:30GMT as market forecast for the deficit figure to widen to $44.7 bln vs prev. reading of $44.4 bln. A narrowing of the deficit may give dlr a lift. Bids are noted at 102.40-35 with stops below 102.30, however, more buying interest is reported at 102.10-00. On the upside, offers are placed at 102.70/75 n then 102.90-00 with stops touted above 103.00.

[B]Wednesday [/B]will see the release of New Zealand HLFS unemployment rate, UK BRC shop price index, Japan’s leading indicator, German industrial orders, Swiss CPI, U.K. industrial and manufacturing output, Canada’s import, export and trade balance.

33

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

08 Aug 2014[/B] [I]07:34GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ... Statement from BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's comments at the press conference, quote :

don’t see direct impact now from geopolitical risks on Japan’s economy;
economy is unlikely to slow below potential growth of around 0.5 pct;
correction of excess yen strength has been very positive for Japan’s economy;
no reason for yen to gain strength;
current fall in real wages due to effects of sales tax hike, should be temporary;
don’t know if current account deficit will last indefinitely

exports, industrial output have shown weakness recently;
Japan econ continues moderate recovery despite decline in demand after sales tax hike;
Japan econ to continue moderate recovery, decline in demand after sales tax hike to fade;
effects of decline in demand after sales tax hike are gradually easing;
need to carefully monitor decline in real wages;
expect economy to remain in positive cycle due to consumer spending and corporate investment;
cyclical and temporary factors are behind recent weakness in exports
overseas economies continuing to grow mainly based around advanced economies
CPI likely to hit 2 pct around middle of forecast period between fiscal 2014-2016;
overseas economies continuing to grow mainly based around advanced economies;
CPI likely to hit 2 pct around middle of forecast period between fiscal 2014-2016;
private consumption to stay firm due to improvement in jobs, income conditions;
effects of decline in demand after sales tax hike are gradually easing;
virtuous cycle of economic activity continues to operate firmly;
QQE has been exerting its intended effects;
will continue with QQE as long as necessary to achieve 2 pct price target in a stable manner;
will examine both upside, downside risks to economy and make adjustments as appropriate;
CPI likely to hit 2 pct around middle of forecast period between fiscal 2014-2016;
monetary policy will not be influenced just by month-to-month moves in prices;

34

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

11 Aug 2014[/B] [I]02:58GMT[/I]

The greenback eased after a ‘gap up’ open to 102.22 (Reuters) in NZ today as Fri’s rally in the Nikkei futures in NY session prompted broad-based yen-selling. The Nikkei has risen sharply in Asia (currently up by 329 points at 15107), suggesting consolidation with upside bias remains in Asian trading. Bids are noted at 102.00-101.90 with mixture of bids n stops located 101.75/70 n around 101.60. On the upside, offers are reported at 102.40-50 n then 102.65/70 with stops emerging further out abv 102.90.

Although geopolitical events shud remain as the major driver of volatility for the day, investors shud pay attention to the BoJ monthly economic survey at 05:00GMT as it will be interesting to see how the BOJ sees growth in that consists of the GDP number (market expects Wed’s Japan Q2 GDP to post a sharp fall of 7.1%), trading dlr fm both sides of the market is recommended.

Next week will see the release of Japan’s economic survey, Swiss retails sales and Canada’s housing start [B]on Monday. [/B]

U.K. BRC retail sales, BOJ meeting minutes, Japan’s domestic CGPI, Australia’s house prices, NAB business conditions and business confidence, Japan’s industrial output, eurozone ZEW economic sentiment, current conditions and economic sentiment, U.S. redbook and Federal Budget[B] on Tuesday.[/B]

Japan’s GDP, Australia’s Westpac consumer confidence, China’s retail sales and industrial production, Germany’s CPI and HICP, U.K. claimant count unemployment change and ILO unemployment rate, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, eurozone industrial production, U.S. retail sales and business inventories [B]on Wednesday. [/B]

New Zealand’s business PMI and retail sales, U.K. RICS housing survey, Australia’s westpac leading economic index, China’s CB leading economic index, Germany’s GDP, Swiss producer and import price, eurozone GDP and inflation, Canada’s new house prices, U.S. import prices, exports prices and jobless claims [B]on Thursday. [/B]

U.K. GDP, Canada’s manufacturing sales, U.S. PPI, NY Fed manufacturing, overall net capital flows, foreign treasury buy, industrial and manufacturing output, capacity utilization and University of Michigan sentiment [B]on Friday.[/B]

35

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

14 Aug 2014[/B] [I]02:36GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- .... The greenback climbed at Tokyo open after finding support at 102.40/41 in Australia and easily penetrated yesterday's high of 102.54 to 102.66 in Tokyo morning as gain in the Nikkei following yesterday's rally in U.S. n major European stock markets (last seen up 80 points to 15,294) boosted risk appetite.

Intra-day broad-based gains in Asian equities suggest buying dlr on dips is the way to go. Bids are noted at 102.30-20 and then 102.05/00 with mixture of bids n stops located just below 101.80. On the upside, offers at 102.60-70 are being absorbed but more are are placed at 102.80-90 and then 103.00 with stops emerging just above July’s peak at 103.15.

Investors should pay attention to U.S. weekly jobless claims later today at 12:30GMT. Economists are forecasting a rise of 6K to 295K for the week ended Aug. 9, however, recent low claims levels show the U.S. labor market is strengthening.

[B]Thursday [/B]will see the release of New Zealand’s business PMI and retail sales, U.K. RICS housing survey, Australia’s Westpac leading economic index, China’s CB leading economic index, Germany’s GDP, Swiss producer and import price, eurozone GDP and inflation, Canada’s new house prices, U.S. import prices, exports prices and jobless claims.

36

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

15 Aug 2014[/B] [I]01:57GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- .... This morning statement from Japan FinMin Aso, quote:

‘moderate economic recovery is continuing;
will closely watch economic data from July-Sept before deciding whether to raise sales tax next year;
sluggish growth in money supply means economic recovery is not strong enough.’

Last night despite dlr’s brief retreat from Asian high at 102.66 to 102.32 in NY morning after the release of more than expected U.S. jobless claims which came in at 311,000 versus economists’ forecast of 295,000.
However, renewed buying interest there lifted price again to 102.54 in New York.

[B]Friday[/B] will see the release of U.K. GDP, Canada’s manufacturing sales, U.S. PPI, NY Fed manufacturing, overall net capital flows, foreign treasury buy, industrial and manufacturing output, capacity utilization and University of Michigan sentiment.

37

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views[/B]

The greenback edged back to 102.44 in Tokyo morning after Fri’s pretty sharp selloff fm 102.72 to 102.14 (on buying of yen due to risk aversion) as tension in Ukraine eased a little. German Foreign Minister said earlier today that ‘the aim remains to bring about a ceasefire in Ukraine’ after holding talks with the foreign ministers of Ukraine, Russia, n France in Berlin on Sunday.

As market sentiment remains fragile n events in Russia-Ukraine at the weekend continue to capture market focus, selling dlr on recovery is favoured but position player shud look to buy on dips as Aug’s bottom at 101.51 shud continue to hold n bring rebound due to dlr’s broad ‘consolidative’ outlook. Offers are noted at 102.50-70 with stops emerging abv 102.80, whilst bids are placed at 102.10-00 with mixture of bids n stops at 101.80-70.

On the data front, U.S. will release the NAHB housing market index at 14:00GMT with forecast to remain unchanged at 53 in Aug. Looking ahead, Federal Reserve will release their latest meeting minutes on Wed n his week’s major focus wud be the annual meeting of top central bank officials n economists in Jackson Hole, Wyoming fm August 21 to 23.

38

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

19 Aug 2014[/B] [I]00:03GMT[/I]

[B]NZD/USD[/B] - … Statement from NZ FinMin Bill English said:
‘NZ economy still growing robustly, outlook not changed significantly from budget;
New Zealand govt surplus seen at NZ$297 mln in 2014/15 vs NZ$372 mln in budget;
NZ has limited fiscal headroom for higher spending, tax cuts, spending restraint will remain;
NZ national govt to hold to economic/fiscal policies, tax cuts possible when room to do so;
NZ does not need tax hikes nor sharply higher govt spending in parties’ election promises.’

New Zealand Treasury publishes pre-election fiscal update -
‘budget surplus forecasts over next four years trimmed because of slower economic growth;
net debt peaking 26.8 pct of gdp in 14/15 (budget 26.4 pct);
slower reduction seen;
NZ net debt seen below 20 pct of gdp by 2021 (budget 2020), superannuation payments to resume then;
NZ debt management office reaffirms budget forecast of NZ$8 bln bond issuance in 2014/15;
NZ economic momentum is slowing, as terms of trade ease, growth forecasts trimmed;
NZ govt tax take expected to be slightly less than budget forecasts as growth slows;
2015 march yr GDP +3.8 pct (budget 4 pct);
reaffirms later year forecasts; inflation 2015 March yr 1.7 pct (budget 1.8 pct); 2016 at 2.4 pct (budget 2.5 pct).’

[B]Tuesday[/B] will see the release of New Zealand’s producer prices, RBA meeting minutes, eurozone current account, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, U.S. building permits, core CPI, housing starts, Redbook and Cleveland Fed CPI.

39

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

USD/JPY -[/B] ... Dlr jumps in Tokyo lunch session after a brief pullback from 103.00 to 102.90 in Tokyo open, price hits a 4-1/2 month peak of 103.22 when the Nikkei climbs above to 15490, just 2 ticks below morning high of 15492.

The greenback climbed above yesterday’s NY high of 102.93 on renewed cross-selling in yen n partly on a larger-than-expected Japan’s current account deficit.

The WSJ reported the Finance Ministry data showed that the overall trade deficit of 964 bln was slightly smaller than the 1 tln a year ago, as an economic slowdown caused by the Apr 1 sales tax increase damped demand for imported goods.

Japan’s exports rose in Jul for the first time in 3 months, but imports were unexpectedly robust, leading to a larger-than-expected deficit amid a gradual pickup in global economic growth. Exports grew 3.9% on year. Market estimates had expected outbound shipments to increase 3.4% on year. Imports increased 2.3%.

Both the govt. n the BoJ are keeping a cautious eye on exports. Since coming into office in late 2012, PM Shinzo Abe has introduced measures to stimulate business activity n push down the Japanese currency. But this hasn’t translated into solid export growth.

Japan’s export growth in recent months has been more subdued than that of its Asian rivals, pointing to structural changes in the economy that government policies may not be able to rectify. Once dominant in the global market, Japanese manufacturers have been increasingly losing ground. Mr. Abe’s cheap yen policy, which lead to a 20% depreciation in the yen, has helped corporate profits but has so far done little to revive manufacturing investments in Japan.

40

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY[/B]

[B]21 Aug 2014[/B] [I]02:33GMT [/I]

[B]USD/JPY -[/B] ..... The greenback maintains a firm undertone in Tokyo morning following yesterday's mildly hawkish FOMC minutes, price easily penetrated NY high at 103.85 at Tokyo open n climbed to a fresh 4-1/2 month peak of 103.96 as gain in the Nikkei boosted risk sentiment.

As the follow-through buying from Asian traders indicates upside bias remains, suggesting buying dlr on dips is the way to go, however, investors should stay alert ahead of the daily key res at 104.13 (Apr 4 high) as only a firm rise above there would indicate an ‘upside break’ of 7-month broad range of 100.76-104.13 has taken place n yield further headway twd 105.00 later this month. Bids are noted at 103.70/60 n then 103.50/45 with stpps emerging below 103.30. On the upside, offers are placed at 104.00 n with mixture of offers n stops located at 104.10-20.

Pay attention to a slew of U.S. economic data starting with weekly jobless claims, Philly Fed business index, existing home sales. Another key event is the 3-day annual Kansas City Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Fed Chair Janet Yellen & ECB Governor Mario Draghi will both speak in the event on Fri.

USD/JPY - … U.S. dollar strengthened to a 4-1/2 month high at 103.75 versus the Japanese yen after the release of FOMC minutes. Bids are now located at 103.60-50 and more at 103.30 with stops only seen below 103.20. On the upside, some offers are tipped at 103.85-95 with mixture of offers and stops seen at 104.00 option barrier.

[B]Thursday [/B]will see the release of Japan’s manufacturing PMI, China’s HSBC manufacturing PMI, Swiss trade balance, France’s Markit manufacturing and service flash PMI, Germany’s Markit manufacturing flash PMI, eurozone’s manufacturing and service flash PMI, U.K. PSNCR and retail sales, U.S. jobless claims and Markit manufacturing PMI, eurozone consumer confidence, U.S. Philly Fed business index and existing home sales. The 3-day annual Federal Reserve Bank symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming begins on Thursday.