AceTraderFx Jan 19 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2088
Despite euro’s resumption of recent decline to a 6-week trough of 1.2055 in European morning on Monday, subsequent rebound suggests temporary low is made and range trading is in store initially before prospect of another fall, however, loss of downward momentum is likely to keep price above 1.2011 (2020 high, now sup).
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2112 would risk stronger correction but reckon 1.2178 res should cap upside.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand NZIER confidence, retail sales, GDT price index.
Germany CPI, HICP, ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, Swiss producer and import price index, Italy trade balance, EU current account, construction output, ZEW survey expectation, UK labour productivity, and Canada manufacturing sales, wholesale trade.
AceTraderFx Jan 20 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2142
Yesterday’s rally to 1.2144 (New York) due to renewed risk-on sentiment confirms euro’s recent decline from January’s near 33-month peak at 1.2349 has made a temporary low at Monday’s 6-week trough at 1.2055, near term overbought condition is likely to limit gain to 1.2175/78 and yield retreat later today.
On the downside, a daily close below New York low at 1.2116 would be 1st signal recovery has ended, then weakness to 1.2086 and re-test of 1.2055 would follow.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia consumer sentiment.
Germany producer prices, UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output prices, DCLG house price index, EU HICP, core HICP.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, redbook, NAHB housing index, and Canada CPI, core CPI, Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
AceTraderFx Jan 21 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2127
Despite yesterday’s decline from 1.2157 (Europe) to as low as 1.2077 in New York, euro’s intra-day rebound in Asia due to renewed risk sentiment suggests further choppy swings above Mon’s 6-week trough at 1.2055 would continue ahead of key ECB’s monetary policy announcement and then post-ECB presser.
As long as 1.2157 holds, downside bias remains, below 1.2077 would yield re-test of 1.2055 but loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.2011.
A break above 1.2157 would risk stronger retracement of recent fall from Jan’s 1.2349 peak to 1.2178 and possibly towards 1.2222 next week.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Bank of Japan interest rate decision, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, France business climat.
Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, UK CBI trends orders, EU ECB refinancing rate, ECB deposit rate, consumer confidence.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and Canada ADP employment change, new housing price index.
AceTraderFx Jan 22 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2167
Euro’s break of Wed’s 1.2157 high to 1.2173 in post-ECB New York morning yesterday suggests recent decline from January’s near 33-month peak at 1.2349 has made a low earlier at Monday’s 6-week trough of 1.2055 and stronger retracement towards 1.2222 objective is envisaged before retreat due to loss of upward momentum.
On the downside, a daily close below New York low at 1.2137 would be the 1st signal correction has ended, then risk would shift to the downside for weakness to 1.2116, then towards 1.2077 on Monday.
Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, CPI, Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, retail sales, Japan nationwide core CPI, nationwide CPI, Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI.
UK Gfk consumer confidence, PSNB, PSNCR, retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
Canada retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, and U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, existing home sales.
AceTraderFx Jan 25 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2172
Euro’s 3-legged rise from last Monday’s 6-week trough at 1.2055 to as high as 1.2190 Fri suggests recent decline from January’s 1.2349 peak has made a temporary low and marginal gain is envisaged, however, loss of upward momentum would cap price below res at 1.2222.
A daily close below 1.2152 (Fri low) would be the 1st signal correction has ended, then outlook would turn bearish for weakness towards 1.2077 later.
Data to be released today:
Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, EU business sentiment, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
U.S. national activity index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Jan 26 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2136
Euro’s decline from 1.2183 to 1.2117 on weak German Ifo data yesterday suggests early correction from last Monday’s 6-week bottom at 1.2055 has possibly ended at 1.2190 (Friday), a daily close below 1.2117 would add credence to this view and head back to 1.2077, then re-test of 1.2055 later this week.
On the upside, only above 1.2190 risks stronger retracement towards 1.2222 before prospect of decline due to loss of upward momentum.
After Monday’s market-moving Ifo data, no eco. indicators are due out from the euro area countries today, traders will have to take cue from movements in Asian n European stocks plus U.S. stocks.
We have a number of ECB members scheduled to speak during the day, please refer to EI page for details.
AceTraderFx Jan 27 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2163
Euro’s intra-day rally on Tuesday from 1.2108 to 1.2175 due to renewed usd’s weakness on return of risk appetite suggests choppy trading above last Mon’s 6-week trough at 1.2055 would continue with upside bias, above 1.2190 (Friday’s high) would bring stronger retracement of early decline from January’s near 33-month peak at 1.2349 to 1.2222 but reckon 1.2284 should remain intact.
On the downside, below 1.2108 anytime signals correction has ended, then weakness to 1.2077 would be seen next.
On the data front, we have German Gfk consumer confidence, then France’s consumer confidence n Italy’s trade balance. ECB’s chief economist will speak at conference at 15:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 28 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2097
Euro’s intra-day selloff from 1.2169 (Asia) to as low as 1.2058 on ECB Knot’s euro-bearish comments suggests early correction fm last Mon’s 6-week trough at 1.2055 has ended at 1.2190 (Fri) and as price has fallen in post-FOMC New York, bearishness remains and below 1.2055 would extend recent decline from Jan’s near 33-month peak at 1.2349 twd 1.2011.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2128 ‘prolongs’ volatile swings above 1.2055 and may risk another rise twd 1.2190.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data (pls refer to EI page for details).
AceTraderFx Jan 29 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2110
Although euro’s erratic rise from this week’s low at 1.2058 (Wednesday) to 1.2141 in New York morning yesterday due to rally in U.S. stocks following downbeat U.S. data suggests further volatile swings above last week’s trough at 1.2055 would continue, intraday retreat in tandem with U.S. stock futures would bring range trading.
Below Thursday’s 1.2080 low would yield re-test of 1.2055, break there extend recent fall from Jauarty’s 1.2349 peak towards 1.2011 whilst above 1.2141 may head back towards 1.2175 but 1.2190 res should cap upside.
U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to weekly jobless claims and continued jobless claims to get the feel of the latest condition of the labour market.
AceTraderFx Feb 01 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2124
Euro’s erratic rise last week from 1.2058 (Wednesday) to 1.2155 on Friday suggests further volatile swings above January’s 6-week trough at 1.2055 would continue and as long as Friday’s 1.2094 low holds, marginal gain can’t be ruled out, however, reckon pivotal res at 1.2190 should cap upside n yield decline later.
On the downside, a daily close below 1.2094 would bring weakness towards 1.2055, break would extend recent decline towards 1.2011.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data in European morning, pls refer to our EI page for details and pay attention to German retail sales, then mfg PMI releases from Italy, France, Germany and the EU.
AceTraderFx Feb 02 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2078
Euro’s selloff on Monday from 1.2144 to as low as 1.2056 suggests early correction from January’s 1.2055 low has ended, below would extend recent fall from January’s near 33-month peak at 1.2549 towards 1.2011 before prospect of a recovery due to loss of near term downward momentum.
Only above 1.2094/99 ‘prolongs’ volatile swings above 1.2055 and may risk another rise towards 1.2144 but reckon 1.2155 may cap upside.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia RBA interest rate decision, New Zealand GDT price index
UK nationwide house price, France budget balance, CPI (EU norm), CPI, Italy GDP, EU GDP.
U.S. redbook, ISM New York index, labor costs, productivity.
AceTraderFx Feb 03 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2045
Despite yesterday’s resumption of recent decline from January’s near 33-month peak at 1.2349 to a 2-month bottom of 1.2011 in New York, subsequent rebound in tandem with rally in US stocks suggests temporary low is made, a daily close above 1.2055 (January low, now res) is needed to bring stronger retracement to 1.2085/95 but 1.2155 should remain intact this week.
Below 1.2011 would extend marginal weakness, however, loss of downward momentum is expected to keep price above 1.1976 and bring correction later.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia AIG construction index, building permits, New Zealand unemployment rate, employment change, labour cost index, Japan Jibun Bank services PMI, China Caixin services PMI.
Italy Markit services PMI, CPI, CPI (EU norm), France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, HICP, core HICP, producer price index, UK Markit services PMI.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, labor costs, productivity, ADP employment change, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI.
AceTraderFx Feb 04 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2038 Despite Wed’s marginal weakness to a fresh 2-month trough of 1.2003 (Reuters) in New York morning , failure to penetrate psychological 1.2000 handle and subsequent rebound suggests recent decline has made a temporary low and range trading is in store, above 1.2049/55 res would bring stronger gain towards 1.2087 before retreat.
Only below 1.2000 risks one more fall, however, weakening of downward momentum is likely to keep price above 1.1976 and yield a much-needed correction later today or tomorrow.
Eco. data in the euro area countries is pretty thin today with EU’s Dec retail sales being the only data due out.
We also have some ECB officials scheduled to speak later (please refer to EI page for details).
AceTraderFx Feb 05 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1967
Yesterday’s firm break of ‘psychological’ 1.2000 handle and then weakness to a fresh 2-month low at 1.1958 due to continued usd’s strength suggests recent decline from Jan’s 1.2349 high remains in force, however, oversold condition is expected to keep price above 1.1898/03 and yield a much-needed minor correction early next week.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2000 signals temporary bottom is in place and risks stronger retracement to 1.2040/50.
Ahead of U.S. jobs report, the euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data (please refer to EI page for details) n pay attention to German industrial orders, if actual reading comes in weaker than forecast, this will give traders another reason for more euro bashing but beware of intra-day rebound due to pre-NFP short covering.
AceTraderFx Feb 08 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2043
Although Fri’s rally from Asian fresh 2-month trough of 1.1953 (Asia) to as high as 1.2049 in New York after downbeat U.S. jobs report confirms euro’s decline from Jan’s near 33-month peak at 1.2349 has made a temporary low and 1-2 days of choppy consolidation is in store, as long as 1.2087 holds, downside bias remains.
A daily close below 1.2000 signals recovery has ended and brings re-test of 1.1953 later. Only above 1.2087 risks stronger correction of said decline, then price may head back towards 1.2155 ‘later’ this week.
On the eco. data front, Germany will kick off with industrial output n then EI Sentix investor confidence index. We have participation by ECB President Lagarde in a debate on the ECB Annual Report 2019 at the European Parliament at 16:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Feb 09 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2059
Although yesterday’s marginal gain to 1.2066 on renewed usd’s weakness due to return of risk appetite on the back of rally in U.S. stocks suggests recent fall from January’s 1.2349 peak has made a temporary low at Friday’s 2-month trough of 1.1953, near term loss of upward momentum would cap price below minor res at 1.2087 and yield retreat.
On the downside, a daily close below Mon’s 1.2019 low would be 1st signal correction from 1.1953 has ended and yield weakness to 1.2000/03.
On the eco. data front, we have a slew of 2nd-tier data from Germany and Italy (please refer to our EI page for details). Later, we have ECB Chief Economist Lane speaking at a conference at 15:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Feb 10 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2110
Euro’s resumption of near term upmove from Friday’s 2-month bottom at 1.1953 to a 1-week high of 1.2121 in New York yesterday due to continued usd’s weakness suggests recent fall from Jan’s 1.2349 peak has made a low there and as long as 1.2066 (Monday high, now sup) holds, upside bias remains for further gain, overbought condition should cap price well below daily res at 1.2190.
Only a daily close below 1.2066 signals 1st leg of correction from 1.1953 over and risks weakness towards 1.2019 before prospect of rebound later this week.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia Westpac consumer sentiment, Japan corporate goods price index, machine tool orders, China PPI, CPI, Germany CPI, HICP.
France industrial output, and U.S. MBA mortgage applications, core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnings, wholesale inventory, wholesale sales, Federal budget.
AceTraderFx Feb 11 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2115
Euro’s intra-day retreat from Wed’s 11-day high of 1.2143 (Europe) suggests iintial consolidation would be seen before near term upmove from last Fri’s 2-month trough of 1.1953 extends further gain, ‘loss of momentum’ should cap price well below daily res at 1.2222.
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.2089 dampens bullishness and risks stronger retracement of aforesaid rise twd 1.2066.
Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand retail sales, Japan market holiday, China market holiday.
UK RICS housing price balance, Germany wholesale price index.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims.
AceTraderFx Feb 16 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2138
Euro’s rebound from 1.2082 (Friday) to 1.2144 yesterday suggests re-test of last week’s 1.2149 high would be forthcoming soon due to renewed usd’s weakness on risk appetite, above would extend upmove from Feb’s 1.1953 trough to 1.2190, loss of upward momentum should cap price below daily res at 1.2222.
Only below 1.2082 dampened bullishness and may risk stronger retracement of said rise to 1.2045/50.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
China market holiday, Japan tertiary industry activity.
France unemployment rate, Italy trade balance, Germany economic sentiment, current conditions, EU employment change, GDP.
Canada housing starts and US NY Fed manufacturing.
AceTraderFx Feb 17 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2093
Euro’s decline from Tue’s 1.2169 high to 1.2096 in New York due to usd’s broad-based rally in tandem with U.S. treasury yields, then intra-day weakness to 1.2084 in Asia suggests recent upmove from February’s 2-month trough at 1.1953 has made a top and stronger retracement towards 1.2035 (61.8% r) may be seen after consolidation, however, reckon 1.2019 sup would remain intact.
Only a daily close above 1.2123 signals pullback is possibly over and risks re-test of 1.2169, then 1.2090 later.
Economic calendar is pretty light today with EU’s construction output being the only data due out.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major