AceTraderFx Jan 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 17 Jan 2022 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1405
Despite euro’s resumption of recent upmove from Nov’s 16-month trough at 1.1187 to a fresh 7-week 1.1482 top (Asia) on Fri, subsequent fall to 1.1399 in New York on safe-haven usd’s buying signals temporary high is possibly in place and daily close below 1.1386 would ass credence to this view, yield stronger retracement towards 1.1355, then 1.1314.
On the upside, above 1.1448/52 is needed to suggest pullback over and may bring re-test of 1.1482.
Eco. calendar is pretty light with Italy’s CPI n trade balance. There is a Eurogroup meeting in Brussels n ECB President Lagarde n ECB member Panetta will participate in the meeting.
AceTraderFx Jan 18:Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 18 Jan 2022 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1409
Despite euro’s resumption of recent upmove from Nov’s 16-month trough at 1.1187 to a fresh 7-week 1.1482 top (Asia) on Fri, subsequent fall to 1.1399 and yesterday’s break there to 1.1393 on continued usd’s strength in thin North America trading signals temporary high is possibly in place and daily close below 1.1386 would add credence to this view, yield stronger retracement towards 1.1360, 1.1334.
On the upside, above 1.1448/52 is needed to suggest pullback over and may bring re-test of 1.1482.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details. Pay attention to German ZEW economic sentiment n EU’s ZEW survey expectation. EcoFin ministers will meet in Brussels n ECB’s Vice President de Guindos will participate in the meeting.
AceTraderFx Jan 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 19 Jan 2022 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1325
Euro’s intra-day selloff yesterday from 1.1421 (Asia) and then break of 1.1386 sup to as low as 1.1315 in New York due to broad-based usd’s strength on surge in U.S. yields and global stock weakness suggests correction from 2021 Nov’s 1.1187 trough has ended at 1.1482 (Fri) and weakness towards 1.1223 may be seen later this week.
Only a daily above 1.1386 dampens present bearish view and may risk stronger recovery to 1.1421 before prospect of another fall.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand retail sales.
U.K. CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, DCLG house price index, Germany CPI, EU current account, construction output.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, building permits, housing starts, redbook and Canada wholesale trade.
AceTraderFx Jan 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 20 Jan 2022 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1347
Euro’s early decline from Fri’s 7-week peak at 1.1482 to as low as 1.1315 on Tue strongly suggests correction from 2021 16-month bottom at 1.1187 (Nov) has ended there and yesterday’s recovery to 1.1356 (NY) would bring consolidation before down, loss of momentum would keep price above daily pivotal sup at 1.1273.
Only a daily close above 1.1386 dampens bearish outlook and may risk stronger gain to 1.1410/20 later.
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand food price index, Australia consumer sentiment, consumer inflation expectation, employment change, unemployment rate, Japan exports, imports, trade balance.
U.K. RICS housing price balance, Germany producer prices, France business climate, EU HICP.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index and existing home sales.
AceTraderFx Jan 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 21 Jan 2022 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1303
Euro’s intra-day fall on Thur from 1.1368 (Europe) and then break of 1.1315 (Tue) to 1.1304 in late New York on safe-haven usd buying due to renewed weakness in U.S. stocks suggests early upmove from Nov’s 2021 16-month trough at 1.1187 has ended at last Fri’s fresh 7-week 1.1482 top and below 1.1299 would head towards daily pivotal sup at 1.1273.
On the upside, only above 1.1368 may risk stronger retracement of aforesaid fall to 1.1381/86 next week.
On the data front, the only ecomomic data due out is EU’s consumer confidence ar 15:00GMT. We also have ECB President Lagarde participates in virtual session at World Economic Forum in Davos at 12:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 24 Jan 2022 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1339
Although euro’s rebound after extending recent decline from Jan’s 1.1482 top to an 8-day bottom at 1.1302 in Asia suggests temporary low is made, as 1.1359 (NY) had capped recovery in New York, consolidation with downside bias remains and below 1.1302 would extend said fall towards 1.1302, then later 1.1273.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1386 risks stronger retracement of said fall towards 1.1405.
Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, pls refer to our EI page for details.
Pay attention to german n EU’s Markit mfg n services PMIs, if actual readings come in weaker than forecast, then euro would come under renewed selling pressure.
AceTraderFx Jan 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 25 Jan 2022 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1323
Despite euro’s brief break below last Fr’s 1.1302 low to a near 2-week bottom at 1.1291 in New York yesterday, subsequent rebound on broad-based retreat in usd due to strong recovery in U.S. stocks suggests a temporary bottom is made there and retracement towards 1.1359 may be seen before recent decline from Jan’s 7-week 1.1482 peak heads towards 1.1273 later.
On the upside, only a daily close abv 1.1359 may risk stronger gain twd 1.1386.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand business NZ PSI, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, CPI.
Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, U.K. PSNB, PSNCR, CBI trends orders.
U.S. redbook, monthly home price, consumer confidence and Richmond Fed manufacturing.
AceTraderFx Jan 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 26 Jan 2022 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1304
Although euro’s break of previous Jan’s 1.1273 low to 1.1264 Tue suggests correction from 2021 bottom at 1.1187 (Nov) has ended at 1.1482 in mid-Jan, subsequent short-covering rebound in tandem with U.S. stocks would bring consolidation before another fall, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1223.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1368 aborts recent bearish outlook and risks stronger gain to 1.1395/00.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Australia Market Holiday, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
France consumer confidence, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, building permits, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, new home sales, Fed interest rate decision and Canada BOC interest rate decision.
AceTraderFx Jan 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 27 Jan 2022 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1235
Euro’s selloff in post-FOMC New York from 1.1300 to a fresh 1-month bottom at 1.1236 due to broad-based usd’s strength on Fed Powell’s hawkish comments suggests further weakness would be seen, however, below 2021 bottom at 1.1187 (Nov) needed to retain bearishness for further decline towards projected downside target at 1.1222 later.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1310 (Wed high) signals temporary low is in place and risks stronger retracement to 1.1334/36 before down.
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand CPI, Australia Westpac leading index, export prices, imports prices.
Germany Gfk consumer sentiment, Swiss exports, imports, trade balance, Italy industrial sales.
U.S. durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, GDP, PCE prices, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, pending home sales, KC Fed manufacturing and Canada average weekly earnings.
AceTraderFx Jan 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 28 Jan 2022 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1144
Euro’s selloff and firm break below 2021 low at 1.1187 (Nov, now res) to a 20-month bottom at 1.1133 in New York Thursday on follow-through usd’s buying after Fed Powell’s hawkish comments suggests medium-term downtrend has resumed would pressure price towards 1.1036 next week.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1187 signals a temporary trough is in place and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1231/36 on Mon.
Ahead of release of key U.S. PCE price index, the uro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details.
AceTraderFx Jan 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 31 Jan 2022 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1146
Despite euro’s short-covering rebound from Friday’s 20-month bottom at 1.1122 (Europe) to 1.1173 in New York, as long as 1.1187 (2021 low, now res) holds, downside bias remains for recent downtrend to head towards 1.1036 later this week.
On the upside, only daily close above 1.1187 signals temporary bottom is made, risks stronger gain to 1.1220/30.
Data to be released today:
Japan industrial output, retail sales, consumer confidence, construction orders, housing starts, China Market Holiday.
Italy GDP, EU GDP, Germany CPI.
Canada producer prices, U.S. Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Feb 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 04 Feb 2022 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1450
Euro’s impressive rally on Thursday from 1.1268 to as high as 1.1451 after hawkish comments by ECB’s Lagarde in post-ECB presser suggests recent upmove from Jan’s 20-month bottom at 1.1122 remains in force and would head to 1.1482, overbought condition should cap price below 1.1514.
On the downside, only below 1.1368 confirms 1st leg of correction is over and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1330 but 1.1268 should remain intact.
Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand building permits, China Market Holiday.
Germany industrial orders, France non-farm payrolls, U.K. Market construction PMI, EU retail sales.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, Canada employment change, unemployment rate and Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Feb 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 07 Feb 2022 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1445
Despite euro’s resumption of recent upmove from Jan’s fresh 20-month trough at 1.1122 to an 11-week high of 1.1483 in Europe last Friday, subsequent fall to 1.1412 after robust US NFP signals a temporary top is in place and below 1.1412 would bring stronger retracement towards 1.1368 after range trading.
On the upside, only above 1.1483 may risk one more rise, however, loss of upward momentum would cap price below 1.1514 and yield a much-needed correction later today or Tue.
On the data front, we have German industrial output at European open at 07:00GMT, then EU Sentix index at 09:30GMT. ECB President Lagarde will later speak in a regular hearing to the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs at 15:45 GMT and beware of a brief jump in the euro if she repeats her hawkish comment made in post-ECB presser last Thur.
AceTraderFx Feb 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 08 Feb 2022 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1441
Although euro’s retreat from from last Fri’s 11-week peak at 1.1483 to 1.1412 in post-NFP New York signals upmove from Jan’s fresh 20-month trough at 1.1122 has made a temporary top there, yesterday’s choppy sideways swings would yield further consolidation and as long as 1.1468 (Mon high) holds, downside bias remains, below 1.1412 would bring stronger retracement towards 1.1368 later.
On the upside, a firm break above 1.1468 signals pullback over and risks re-test of 1.1483, then one more rise to 1.1510/14 before prospect of a much-needed correction.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan household spending, current account, trade balance, Eco watchers outlook, Australia business conditions, business confidence.
France imports, exports, current account, trade balance, Italy retail sales.
Canada imports, exports, trade balance, U.S. trade balance and redbook retail sales.
AceTraderFx Feb 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 09 Feb 2022 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1418
Although euro’s retreat from last Friday’s 11-week peak at 1.1483 to 1.1412 in post-NFP New York and yesterday’s weakness to 1.1397 in Europe signals upmove from Jan’s fresh 20-month trough at 1.1122 has made a temporary top there, subsequent rebound would bring consolidation, as long as 1.1448/58 holds, downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.1368, break, 1.1345.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1458 signals pullback is over and may risk re-test of 1.1483.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia consumer sentiment, China CPI, PPI, UK retail sales.
Germany imports, exports, trade balance.
Canada leading index, U.S. mortgage applications, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales.
AceTraderFx Feb 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 1 0 Feb 2022 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1420
Although euro’s retreat to 1.1397 (Tuesday) signals upmove from Jan’s fresh 20-month trough at 1.1122 has made a temporary top at last Friday’s 11-week high of 1.1483, yesterday’s rebound to 1.1447 in New York would bring consolidation before another fall, below said support would yield stronger retracement to 1.1370/75 but reckon 1.1345 may hold.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1468 would risk re-test of 1.1483, break would extend said upmove to 1.1510/14 later.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan producer prices, Australia consumer inflation.
UK GDP.
U.S. CPI, core CPI, jobless claims and Federal budget.
AceTraderFx Feb 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 1 1 Feb 2022 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1402
Despite euro’s rally from 1.1375 and brief break of previous Feb’s 1.1483 top to a near 3-month peak of 1.1495 in New York, subsequent sharp retreat to 1.1408 on broad-based rebound in usd after Fed Bullard’s hawkish comments suggests upmove from Jan’s 20-month 1.1122 low has made a top there and below 1.1375 would yield stronger retracement towards 1.1330.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1483 risks re-test of 1.1495, break would extend towards 1.1514 before down.
On the data front, Germany will release CPI , HICP n wholesale price index at Euroepan open. ECB member Elderson will appear in panel discussionat a finance Summit at 08:05GMT.
AceTraderFx Feb 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 1 4 Feb 2022 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1363
Friday’s break of 1.1371/75 sup to 1.1331 in New York afternoon due to broad-based safe-haven usd buying due to escalating Ukraine tension suggests corrective rise from January’s 1.1122 bottom has formed a top at last Thur’s near 3-month peak at 1.1495 and weakness to 1.3300/10 is seen, reckon 1.1266 (61.8% r) would remain intact.
Only a daily close above 1.1375 signals temporary low is made and may risk stronger recovery towards 1.1417 before retreat.
No eco. data is due out from the euro area countries, however, we have release of Buba monthly report n ECB President Lagarde will speak at the 20th anniversary of euro banknotes and coins at the plenary session of the European Parliament at 16:15GMT.
AceTraderFx Feb 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 1 5 Feb 2022 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1314
Euro’s break of last Fri’s 1.1331 low to a 10-day bottom at 1.1281 in New York Mon on safe-haven usd buying due to continued Ukraine tension together with dovish comments from ECB’s Lagarde suggests correction from Jan’s 20-month trough at 1.1122 has possibly ended earlier at last Thur’s near 3-month 1.1495 peak and downside bias remains for weakness towards 1.1268 but 1.1222 would hold due to loss of downward momentum.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1469 (Mon high) may risk stronger retracement to 1.1400/10 before prospect of another fall later this week.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan GDP, industrial output, capacity utilization.
U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, EU employment, trade balance, GDP, ZEW survey expectation, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW survey expectation.
U.S. NY Fed manufacturing, PPI, redbook and New Zealand GDT price index.
AceTraderFx Feb 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 1 6 Feb 2022 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1356
Although euro’s erratic decline from last Thur’s near 3-month peak at 1.1495 to 1.1281 Mon suggests upmove from Jan’s 20-month trough at 1.1122 has made a top there, yesterday’s erratic rise to 1.1368 on broad-based retreat in usd due to easing tension in Russia-Ukraine suggests retracement to 1.1388/98 may been seen before prospect of another fall, below 1.1281 would yield weakness towards 1.1268 later this week.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1417 signals pullback 1.1495 has ended and risk stronger gain to 1.1446/48.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia Westpac leading index, China PPI, CPI, Japan tertiary industry activity.
U.K. CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, DCLG house price index, EU industrial production.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, import prices, export prices, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, NAHB housing market index, Canada CPI, manufacturing sales and wholesale trade.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major