AceTraderFx Mar 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Mar 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1259
Although price has rebounded after last Thursday’s spectacular selloff to a fresh 20-month trough at 1.1177 on ECB’s dovish forward guidance and minor consolidation would be seen before Medium Term decline resumes towards 1.1140/50, reckon oversold condition would keep price above 1.1100/10 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.
On the upside, only above 1.1286 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risks stronger retracement towards 1.1321/26 before another retreat.
Market focus is now on Brexit related headlines as UK PM May holds a meaningful vote on her Brexit plan in the House of Commons. Hence, traders should keep an eye on the eur/gbp cross.
AceTraderFx Mar 13: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Mar 2019 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1290
The single currency’s rise to 1.1307 in New York yesterday suggests medium-term decline has made a temporary low at last Thursday’s 20-month trough at 1.1177 and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement towards 1.1321/26 would be seen, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 1.1351/55 and yield retreat later this week.
On the downside, only below 1.1249 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk would increase for stronger weakness towards 1.1222.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia consumer sentiment, Japan corporate goods price, machinery orders.
EU industrial production, and U.S. MBA mortgage application, durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, PPI, construction spending.
AceTraderFx Mar 14: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Mar 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1325
The single currency’s rise to 1.1339 in near New York close yesterday suggests medium-term decline has made a temporary low at last Thursday’s 20-month trough at 1.1177 and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement towards 1.1350/55 would be seen, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 1.1370/75 and yield retreat early next week.
On the downside, only below 1.1249 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk would increase for stronger weakness towards 1.1222.
Data to be released on Thursday :
UK RICS housing survey, Germany CPI, HICP, Swiss producer/import price, France CPI, U.S. building permits, import prices, initial jobless claims, new home sales, and Canada new housing price index.
AceTraderFx Mar 15: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Mar 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1319
The single currency’s rise to 1.1341 yesterday suggests medium-term decline has made a temporary low at last Thursday’s 20-month trough at 1.1177 and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement towards 1.1350/55 would be seen, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 1.1370/75 and yield retreat early next week.
On the downside, only below 1.1249 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk would increase for stronger weakness towards 1.1222.
There is a slew of economic data to be released from the eurozone today but traders should pay attention to the release of EU final inflation figures at 10:00GMT. Street forecasts for mm and yy are 0.3% and 1.5% vs previous readings of -1.0% and 1.5%.
AceTraderFx Mar 18: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Mar 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1324
The single currency’s rise to 1.1345 last Friday suggests medium-term decline has made a temporary low at last March’s 20-month trough at 1.1177 and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement towards 1.1350/55 would be seen, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 1.1370/75 and yield retreat early next week.
On the downside, only below 1.1249 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk would increase for stronger weakness towards 1.1222.
Data to be released today:
Japan exports, imports, trade balance, industrial production, capacity utilization.
UK Rightmove house price, EU trade balance, and U.S. NAHB housing market index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Mar 19: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Mar 2019 05:41 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1345
The single currency’s rise to 1.1359 yesterday suggests medium-term decline has made a temporary low at last March’s 20-month trough at 1.1177 and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement towards 1.1374/75 would be seen, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 1.1390/00 and yield retreat later this week.
On the downside, only below 1.1249 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk would increase for stronger weakness towards 1.1222.
There is a slew of data to be released from the eurozone today but particular attention should be given to Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment and current conditions at 10:00GMT.
Street forecasts are -11.0 and 11.7 vs previous readings of -13.4 and 15.0 respectively.
AceTraderFx Mar 20: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Mar 2019 06:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1354
The single currency’s rise to 1.1362 yesterday suggests medium-term decline has made a temporary low at last March’s 20-month trough at 1.1177 and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement towards 1.1374/75 would be seen, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 1.1390/00 and yield retreat later this week.
On the downside, only below 1.1249 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk would increase for stronger weakness towards 1.1222.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand current account, Australia Westpac leading index, Japan coincident index, leading economic index, Germany producer prices, UK CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, DCLG house price index, CBI trens survey, and U.S. MBA mortgage application, Fed interest rate decision.
AceTraderFx Mar 21: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Mar 2019 05:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1431
The single currency’s rally in New York afternoon yesterday to 1.1448 on dollar’s broad-based weakness post the Federal Reserve’s dovish hold signals upmove from March’s 20-month trough at 1.1177 remains in progress and further gain towards 1.1489 would be seen after consolidation, however, overbought condition would keep price below 1.1515 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.
On the downside, only below 1.1362 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1336/40 before prospect of rebound.
Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand GDP, Japan market holiday, Australia employment change, unemployment rate.
Swiss interest rate decision, UK retail sales, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, BoE interest ratre decision, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases.
Canada ADP employment change, U.S. initial jobless cliams, Philadelphia Fed survey, leading indicator, and EU consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Mar 22: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Mar 2019 05:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1363
Despite the single currency’s rise to a fresh 6-week peak at 1.1448 on Wednesday on the Federal Reserve’s dovish hold, subsequent selloff to 1.1343 yesterday suggests upmove from March’s 20-month trough at 1.1177 has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.1294, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1278 and yield correction early next week.
On the upside, only above 1.1448 would revive bullishness for further gain to 1.1489 but psychological resistance at 1.1500 would hold initially and bring retreat.
Data to be released on Friday :
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan CPI, Nikkei manufacturing PMI.
France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU current account, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, UK PSNB, PSNCR.
Canada CPI, retail sales, U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, existing home sales, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, Federal budget.
AceTraderFx Mar 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Mar 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1292
Despite the single currency’s rise to a fresh 6-week peak at 1.1448 last Wednesday on the Federal Reserve’s dovish hold, subsequent selloff to 1.1274 on Friday suggests upmove from March’s 20-month trough at 1.1177 has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.1249/50, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1222 and yield correction later this week.
On the upside, only above 1.1448 would revive bullishness for further gain to 1.1489 but psychological resistance at 1.1500 would hold initially and bring retreat.
Pay attention to the release of German Ifo business climate and current conditions at 09:00GMT.
Street forecasts are 98.5 and 102.9 vs previous readings of 98.5 and 103.4.
AceTraderFx Mar 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Mar 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1314
Despite the single currency’s rise to a fresh 6-week peak at 1.1448 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 1.1274 on Friday suggests upmove from March’s 20-month trough at 1.1177 has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.1249/50, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1222 and yield correction later this week.
On the upside, only above 1.1392 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk gain towards 1.1438 but said 1.1448 top should remain intact on first testing.
Pay attention to the release of German Gfk consumer sentiment a 07:00GMT. Street forecast is for it to remain unchanged at 10.8.
AceTraderFx Mar 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Mar 2019 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1263
Despite the single currency’s rise to a fresh 6-week peak at 1.1448 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 1.1263 yesterday suggests upmove from March’s 20-month trough at 1.1177 has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.1249/50.
However, loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1222 and yield correction later this week.
On the upside, only above 1.1392 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk gain towards 1.1438 but said 1.1448 top should remain intact on first testing.
There isn’t much on the data front from the eurozone today but traders should pay attention to speeches from a few ECB officials at The ECB and Its Watchers conference in Frankfurt. President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at 08:00GMT, followed by Chief Economist Peter Praet at 08:45GMT.
AceTraderFx Mar 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Mar 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1242
The single currency’s fall yesterday and break of Tuesday’s low at 1.1263 to 1.1242 suggests decline from last Wednesday’s 6-week peak at 1.1448 to retrace upmove from March’s 20-month trough at 1.1177 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for marginal weakness.
However, loss of momentum would keep price above support at 1.1222 and yield a much-needed rebound later.
Above 1.1286 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger correction to 1.1327/32 but resistance at 1.1392 should remain intact.
Pay attention to EU’s release of business climate, economic sentiment and industrial sentiment at 10:00GMT. Street forecasts are 0.66, 105.9 and -0.8 vs previous readings of 0.69, 106.1 and -0.4 respectively.
AceTraderFx Mar 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Mar 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1226
The single currency’s fall yesterday and break of Wednesday’s low at 1.1242 to 1.1214 suggests decline from last Wednesday’s 6-week peak at 1.1448 to retrace upmove from March’s 20-month trough at 1.1177 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for marginal weakness.
However, loss of momentum would keep price above support at 1.1190/95 and yield a much-needed rebound later.
On the upside, only above 1.1286 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger correction to 1.1327/32 but resistance at 1.1392 should remain intact.
Pay attention to German employment change and unemployment rate at 08:55GMT. Street forecasts are -10k and 4.9% vs previous readings of -21k and 5.0% respectively.
AceTraderFx Apr 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1227
The single currency’s fall on Friday and break of Thursday’s low at 1.1214 to 1.1210 suggests decline from last Wednesday’s 6-week peak at 1.1448 to retrace upmove from March’s 20-month trough at 1.1177 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for marginal weakness, however, loss of momentum would keep price above support at 1.1190/95 and yield a much-needed rebound later.
On the upside, only above 1.1286 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger correction to 1.1327/32 but resistance at 1.1392 should remain intact.
EU will release its final readings on manufacturing PMIs of Italy, France, Germany and EZ. All of them are expected to come in the same as previous reading at 47.7, 49.8, 44.7 and 47.6 respectively.
AceTraderFx Apr 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1206
The single currency’s fall yesterday and break of Friday’s low at 1.1210 suggests decline from last Wednesday’s 6-week peak at 1.1448 to retrace upmove from March’s 20-month trough at 1.1177 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for marginal weakness, however, loss of momentum would keep price above aforesaid low and yield a rebound later this week.
On the upside, only above 1.1286 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger correction to 1.1327/32 but resistance at 1.1392 should remain intact.
Pay attention to release of EU PPI mm and yy at 09:00GMT. Street forecasts are 0.1% and 3.1% vs previous readings of 0.4% and 3.0% respectively.
AceTraderFx Apr 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1216
The single currency’s fall yesterday and break of Friday’s low at 1.1210 to 1.1184 suggests a re-test of March’s 20-montht rough at 1.1177 is forthcoming after consolidation, break would extend marginally, however, loss of momentum would prevent sharp move beyond and risk would increase for a much-needed correction later this week.
On the upside, only above 1.1286 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger correction to 1.1327/32 but resistance at 1.1392 should remain intact.
There is a slew of services PMIs out from the eurozone today but pay attention to the release of EU retail sales mm and yy at 09:00GMT.
Street forecasts are 0.2% and 2.3% vs previous readings of 1.3% and 2.2% respectively.
AceTraderFx Apr 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1245
Despite the single currency’s fall to 1.1184 on Tuesday, subsequent strong rebound to 1.1255 yesterday on the release of upbeat services PMIs from the eurozone suggests decline from March’s peak at 1.1448 has ended there and choppy trading above March’s 20-month trough at 1.1177 would continue with upside bias, however, loss of momentum would cap price at 1.1332 and yield retreat early next week.
On the downside, only below 1.1204 would indicate said recovery is over, risk 1.1184 again, break would extend towards said 1.1177 low.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Germany industrial orders, France budget balance, U.S. initial jobless claims, and Canada Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Apr 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1220
Euro’s intra-day retreat from 1.1247 to 1.1210 in post-NFP trading in New York Friday suggests further choppy trading below last week’s high at 1.1255 (Wednesday) would continue with downside bias, below 1.1206/10 sup would signal early correction from Tuesday’s 3-week low has ended and would yield re-test of March’s 20-month trough at 1.1177.
Only a daily close above 1.1255 risks stronger retracement of early decline from 1.1448 (March high) and brings stronger retracement to 1.1286 but res at 1.1327/32 should hold.
On the data front, we have Germany’s imports, exports, trade balance n current current, then followed by EU Sentix investor confidence index.
Also, we have ECB Governing Council member Nowotny speaking at a conference in Vienna at 07:30GMT, then later ECB’s Villeroy will speak at a conference in Paris at 16:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Apr 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Apr 2019 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1275
Although yesterday’s rally above last week’s 1.1255 high to 1.1275 due to broad-based euro buying on short covering ahead of Wednesday’s key ECB monetary policy meeting confirms recent decline from March’s 1.1448 peak has made a temporary low at 1.1184 and as long as 1.1206/10 sup holds, stronger retracement of said fall is envisaged, near term overbought condition would cap price at 1.1332.
Below 1.1206 any time signals recovery is over and risk would shift to the downside for weakness towards 2019 bottom at 1.1177 (March).
Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK BRC retail sales, Swiss unemployment rate, Italy retail sales.
U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings.