AceTraderForex Apr 22: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

AceTraderFx Aug 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1098
Despite euro’s selloff from 1.1158 on Thursday due to dovish comments from ECB’s Rehn and then break of 1.1131 support to 1.1092 in New York suggests correction from August’s 26-month trough at 1.1028 has ended earlier at 1.1249, loss of momentum should keep price above 1.1061/71 and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 1.1131 would yield retracement to 1.1158/63 before prospect of another fall.

Economic calendar from the euro area countries is very thin today with the EU’s trade balance being the only data due out at 09:00GMT.

AceTraderFx Aug 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1090
Euro’s last week’s decline from 1.1230 to as low as 1.1067 on Friday suggests correction from August’s fresh 2-year trough at 1.1028 has ended earlier at 1.1249 and subsequent short-covering rebound to 1.1106 in New York would bring consolidation before another fall, however, loss of momentum should keep price well above said 2019 bottom.

Only a daily close above 1.1131 signals temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement to 1.1158/63 but 1.1190 should cap upside.

On the data front, the EU will release a slew of data starting with current account, HICP and core HICP.

AceTraderFx Aug 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

Euro’s fall from 1.1113 (Europe) yesterday to 1.1077 as the greenback regained traction in New York session suggests recovery from Friday’s 2-week low at 1.1067 has ended and recent decline would head to 1.1040/50 after consolidation, loss of downward momentum is likely to keep price above Aug’s fresh 2-year bottom at 1.1028 and bring rebound later today or tomorrow.

Only a daily close above 1.1113 signals temporary low is made and risk stronger retracement of recent erratic fall from 1.1249 to 1.1158, break, 1.1180/90.

Data to be released Tuesday:
Germany PPI, Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, EU construction output, UK CBI trend order.
Canada manufacturing sales and U.S. redbook, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business outlook survey.

AceTraderFx Aug 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Aug 2019 06:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1095
Although yesterday’s rebound after falling one tick below last Fri’s 1.1067 low to a 2-1/2 week trough of 1.1066 suggests recent decline from 1.1249 has made a temporary bottom and initial range trading is envisaged, as long as 1.1131 holds, marginal weakness is likely, loss of downward momentum should keep price above Aug’s fresh 2-year low at 1.1028.

A daily close above 1.1131 would shift risk to the upside for stronger retracement of aforesaid fall to 1.1158, then later 1.1180/90.

No economic data is due out from the euro area countries, so order flows or news headlines will have greater influence on price moves. U.K. PM Johnson will meet with German Chancellor Merkel for Brexit talk later today, so one can expect eur/gbp cross to swing around on Brexit news.

AceTraderFx Aug 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1088
Although euro’s rebound from Tuesday’s 2-week low at 1.1066 to 1.1107 yesterday suggests recent decline from 1.1249 has made a temporary low and range trading is expected, as long as 1.1131 (previous sup, now res) holds, marginal weakness is likely, loss of downward momentum should keep price well above August’s 2-year bottom at 1.1028 and yield strong retracement of aforesaid fall later.

Only above 1.1131 would risk stronger retracement to 1.1158/63 but reckon 1.1190 should remain intact.

On the data front, today is PMI day in the euro area countries, pay attention to release of France’s Markit preliminary mfg and services PMIs, then the same from Germany and the EU.
Then ECB minutes at 12:30GMT and later consumer confidence at 14:00GMT. We also have ECB’s ECB’s Coeure, Lane and Lautenschlager speaking at the annual Jackson Hole symposium.

AceTraderFx Aug 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1081
Despite yesterday’s cable-led brief bounce from a near 3-week low at 1.1064, as long as this week’s high at 1.1113 (Tuesday) holds, downside bias remains for weakness towards August’s 2-year bottom at 1.1028 (less dovish speech at Jackson Hole by Fed’s Powell perhaps), a break there needed to extend recent downtrend to next projected downside target at 1.0975 next week.

On the upside, a daily close above 1.1131 (previous sup, now res) confirms temporary low is made and risk would shift to upside for stronger retracement to 1.1158, then 1.1180/90.

After yesterday’s data dump on euro area’s PMIs, no economic data is due out, so all eyes are on J. Powell’s speech.

AceTraderFx Aug 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1144
Despite euro’s fall to a 3-week bottom at 1.1052 on Fri, subsequent rally to 1.1153 in New York on escalation in U.S.-China trade war, then to 1.1164 today suggests volatile trading above August’s 26-month trough at 1.1028 would continue with upside bias.

On the downside, only below 1.1099 would risk weakness to 1.1064/67 before prospect of rebound.

Today is the final day of the 3-day G7 leaders’ summit in France. On the data front, pay attention to release of key German Ifo business climate, current conditions and expectations, street forecasts are looking for weaker readings from previous readings due to recent recessions fears in Germany, however, euro bulls should buy eur/usd on dips.

AceTraderFx Aug 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1103
Although euro’s impressive rally from 1.1052 to 1.1153 last Fri in New York session suggests further volatile trading above August’s 26-month bottom at 1.1028 would continue, yesterday’s decline from 1.1164 to 1.1095 on easing of Sino-U.S. tensions signal choppy sideways swings are in store, reckon 1.1064/67 sup would contain weakness and bring rebound.

On the upside, only above 1.1164 would extend said near term rise marginally higher, loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.1200/10.

On the data front, Germany will release Q2 GDP n then France will release business climate n consumer confidence, if actual reading come in weaker than street forecast, expect euro to come under renewed selling but downside is likely to be limited. ECB’s Vice-President de Guindos will make a speech at the Annual Congress of the European Economic Association. in Manchester, U.K. at 13:00GMT.

AceTraderFx Aug 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1091
Euro’s decline from 1.1164 (Mon) to 1.1087 yesterday due to selling in eur/gbp cross suggests near term upmove from Friday’s 3-week trough at 1.1052 has made a top there and consolidation with initial downside bias is seen, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1064/67 and bring rebound.

On the upside, a daily close above 1.1115 signals pullback from 1.1164 is over and may head back towards said res level later this week.

On the data front, Germany will kick off with GfK consumer confidence and import prices, then Italy’s business and consumer confidence.

AceTraderFx Aug 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1086
Euro’s impressive rally from 1.1052 last Friday to as high as 1.1164 on Monday suggests further volatile trading above August’s 26-month bottom at 1.1028 would continue, despite subsequent strong retreat, as 1.1074 has contained weakness yesterday, consolidation with upside bias is retained, above 1.1115 may head back towards 1.1164.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1074 dampens mildly bullish outlook and risks decline towards 1.1052, break would yield weakness to 1.1028.

On the economic calendar, the euro area countries will release a raft of eco. data, please refer to our EI section for details.

AceTraderFx Aug 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1053
Euro’s break of last week’s 1.1052 low to a 4-week trough at 1.1043 in New York on Thursday due to renewed usd’s strength on easing of Sino-U.S. trade tensions suggests re-test of August’s fresh 2-year bottom at 1.1028 would be forthcoming after initial consolidation, a break there would extend recent downtrend towards next projected downside target at 1.0975.

On the upside, only a move back above 1.1092/98 res prolongs recent ‘volatile’ broad sideways swings and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1130/40 next week.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand building permits, UK GfK consumer confidence, nationwide hose price, Japan Tokyo CPI, Tokyo core CPI, unemployment rate, industrial output, retail sales, housing starts, construction orders, Australia building permits.
Germany retail sales, France budget balance, CPI, producer prices, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy unemployment rate, CPI, GDP, EU HICP, unemployment rate.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, core PCE price index, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada GDP, producer prices.

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AceTraderFx Sept 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Sept 2019 05:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0988
Euro’s selloff on Friday and then break of previous August’s 1.1028 low (now res) to a fresh 27-month trough at 1.0964 (New York) suggests medium term decline has once again resumed, subsequent rebound would bring range trading before price heads toward 1.0935, however, oversold condition should keep the pair above 1.0900/10.

On the upside, only above 1.1028 would indicate temporary trough made and yield stronger retracement to 1.1060, then 1.1092.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, Italy will kick off with Markit mfg PMI, then the same from France, Germany n the EU. We have several ECB officials schedued to speak at the ECB Legal Conference 2019 “Building bridges- central banking law in an interconnected world” in Frankfurt, please refer to our EI section for details.

AceTraderFx Sept 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Sept 2019 05:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0957
Despite resumption of downtrend marginally to a fresh 27-month trough of 1.0958 in European morning yesterday, near term loss of downward momentum is expected to prevent steep fall and reckon 1.0900/10 would remain intact and bring minor correction before prospect of further decline later.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1028 (prev. Aug’s low, now res) signals temporary low is made and may risk stronger retracement towards 1.1060 before retreat.

On the data front, the EU will release July PPI and ECB’s nominated President Largarde will speak at 07:00GMT, then ECB’s Enria will speak at ECB’s Legal Conference at 11:30GMT.

AceTraderFx Sept 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Sept 2019 06:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0976
Although euro’s rebound from Tuesday’s fresh 27-month bottom at 1.0927 to 1.0978 in New York due to falling U.S. yields and downbeat U.S. factory data suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low, as long as 1.1028 (previous sup, now res) holds, one more fall to 1.0900/10 is likely before prospect of correction due to loss of downward momentum.

On the upside, only above 1.1028 confirms long-awaited retarcement has taken place, then risk would shift to the upside for stronger gain to 1.1050/60 later this week.

On the data front, France will kick off with Markit services PMI, then the same from France, Germany n the EU, then EU’s retail sales.
We also have a number of ECB officials speaking in European morning and later in New York session, please refer to our EI page for details.

AceTraderFx Sept 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Sept 2019 05:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1035
Euro’s rally above 1.1028 to 1.1038 yesterday due to continued usd’s weakness suggests recent downtrend has made a low at Tuesday’s 27-month bottom at 1.0927 and as long as 1.0978 (Tuesday’s high, now sup) holds, stronger retracement towards 1.1092 is now envisaged, however, overbought condition should cap price below 1.1112 ahead of release of Fri’s key U.S. jobs data.

On the downside, only below 1.0998 signals 1st leg of correction is over and may risk retracement towards 1.0978 before prospect of another rise.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Swiss GDP, Germany industrial orders and U.S. ADP employment change, initial jobless claims, labour costs prelim, productivity prelim, Markit manufacturing PMI, durable ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durable ex-transport, ISM manufacturing PMI.

AceTraderFx Sept 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Sept 2019 05:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1034
Although euro’s impressive rally from Tuesday’s 27-month bottom at 1.0927 to a near 1-week high of 1.1084 yesterday suggests long-awaited retracement of recent downtrend has taken place, subsequent retreat would bring sideways swings ahead of release of key U.S. jobs data later today.

As long as 1.1000/10 holds, upside bias remains for gain to 1.1115/20 but 1.1164 should cap this week’s rise. A daily close below 1.1000 signals 1st leg of correction is over and risks weakness to 1.0965/70 but 1.0927 should hold.

On the data front, Germany will kick off with industrial output, then France’s current account, imports n exports, Italy’s retail sales, then EU’s employment n Q2 GDP.

AceTraderFx Sept 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Sept 2019 05:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1017
Although Friday’s weakness to 1.1021 (Europe) then intra-day break below there suggests euro’s upmove from last Tuesday’s 27-month trough at 1.0927 has made a temporary top at 1.1084 (Thursday) and consolidation with downside bias, near term oversold condition would prevent steep fall and reckon 1.0998 (previous res, now sup) would contain weakness and bring rebound, above 1.1056 (post-NFP high) would yield re-test of 1.1084.

A daily close below 1.0998 would risk stronger retracement of said upmove towards 1.0978 before prospect of recovery later this week.

On the data front, Germany will kick off with exports, imports, trade balance and current account, then later EU will release Sentix investor sentiment. ECB’s Hakkarainen will speak at a financial law seminar in Helsinki at 12:20GMT.

AceTraderFx Sept 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Sept 2019 05:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1045
Although yesterday’s strong bounce from 1.1016 (Asia) to 1.1067 in New York suggests euro’s pullback from last week’s high at 1.1084 (Thursday) has ended, subsequent retreat due to broad-based usd’s strength suggests further sideways swings are in store before upmove from Sep’s 27-month bottom resumes, loss of upward momentum would limit upside to 1.1115.

Only a daily close below 1.1116 signals 1st leg of correction is over and may risk stronger retracement of said rise towards 1.0978 later this week.

On the data front, France will kick off with non-farm payrolls, industrial output, then the same from Italy.

AceTraderFx Sept 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Sept 2019 05:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1045
Although euro’s sideways swings after early retreat from last week’s high at 1.1084 t 1.1016 (Monday) are likely to continue, possibly until ECB’s rate decision on Thursday, as long as 1.1016 holds, recent upmove from September’s 27-month trough would head towards next chart objective at 1.1115.

Only a daily close below 1.1016 signals 1st leg of correction from 1.0927 has ended and may risk stronger retracement towards1.0978 before prospect of rebound later this week.

No economic data is due out from the euro area countries so traders are likely take cue from intra-day move in U.S. yields.