AceTraderForex Apr 22: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

AceTraderFx Sept 15 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1867
The single currency’s rebound to 1.1887 yesterday on usd’s weakness suggests early pullback from last Thursday’s high at 1.1917 has ended at 1.1811 the same day and consolidation with upside bias remains for re-test of said resistance, break would extend upmove from last Wednesday’s 4-week trough at 1.1754 to 1.1935/40 before prospect of retreat later this week.

On the downside, only below 1.1811 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk weakness to 1.1780/85 but support at 1.1754 should remain intact.

Pay attention to the release of Germany ZEW economic sentiment and current conditions at 09:00GMT. Street forecasts are 69.8 and -72.0 vs previous readings of 71.5 and -81.3 respectively.

AceTraderFx Sept 16 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1833
Despite the single currency’s rebound to 1.1900 yesterday, subsequent sharp retreat to 1.1840 and intra-day break below this level suggests further choppy trading below last Thursday’s high at 1.1917 would continue with downside bias and below 1.1811 (reaction low) would extend weakness to 1.1782/90, however, last Wednesday’s near 4-week bottom at 1.1754 should hold on 1st testing, yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 1.1900 would revive bullishness for a re-test of 1.1917, break would risk stronger retracement of decline from September’s 2-year peak at 1.2011 to 1.1960/65.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand current account, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Australia Westpac leading index.
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, core PPI output prices, DCLG house price index, EU trade balance.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, business inventories, NAHB housing market index, Fed interest rate decision, and Canada CPI, BoC core CPI, core CPI.

AceTraderFx Sept 17 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1781
The single currency’s selloff from yesterday’s European high at 1.1882 to as low as 1.1789 in post-FOMC New York, then lower to 1.1769 today suggests early recovery from last Wednesday’s near 4-week trough at 1.1754 has ended at 1.1917 last Thursday and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend decline from September’s 2-year peak at 1.2011 to 1.1730/35 later.

On the upside, only above 1.1854 would dampen daily bearishness and risk stronger gain to 1.1882, then 1.1900 before prospect of retreat.

Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand GDP, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, Japan BoJ interest rate decision.
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, Italy trade balance, EU construction output, HICP, core HICP, UK BoE interest rate decision, BoE asset purchase program, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, and Canada ADP employment change.

AceTraderFx Sept 18 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1851
Despite the single currency’s initial fall to a 1-month bottom at 1.1738 in Asia yesterday, subsequent rally to as high as 1.1852 near New York closing and intra-day break above this level suggests decline from September’s 2-year peak at 1.2011 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 1.1882, however, resistance at 1.1900 may hold and yield retreat later.

On the downside, only below 1.1789 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for stronger weakness to 1.1754, then 1.1738 again.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan nationwide core CPI, nationwide CPI.
Germany producer price index, UK retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, Italay industrial orders, industrial sales, EU current account.
U.S. current account, leading index change, University of Michigan sentiment index, and Canada retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, wholesale trade.

AceTraderFx Sept 21 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1856
Despite the single currency’s initial fall to a 1-month bottom at 1.1738 on Thursday, subsequent rally to as high as 1.1870 on Friday suggests decline from September’s 2-year peak at 1.2011 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 1.1882, however, resistance at 1.1900 may hold and yield retreat later.

On the downside, only below 1.1789 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for stronger weakness to 1.1754, then 1.1738 again.

In the absence of major economic data, pay attention to comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde, who is due to speak at an online meeting of the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly at 12:45GMT.

AceTraderFx Sept 22 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1768
Although the single currency has recovered after yesterday’s selloff from 1.1871 to a 1-month bottom at 1.1731 on usd’s broad-based strength and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals early decline from September’s 2-year peak at 1.2011 has resumed, downside bias remains and below 1.1731 would extend to 1.1697 before prospect of a much-needed correction later this week due to loss of momentum.

On the upside, only above 1.1827 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1870/71 before down.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK CBI trends orders and EU consumer confidence.
U.S. redbook, existing home sales, Richmond Fed manufacturing index.

AceTraderFx Sept 23 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1687
The single currency’s fall below Monday’s low at 1.1731 to a near 2-month bottom at 1.1693 yesterday on usd’s continued strength suggests decline from September’s fresh 2-year peak at 1.2011 has resumed and intra-day break below this level would pressure price to 1.1640/50, however, 1.1601 would contain downside due to loss of momentum and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 1.1774 would indicate a temporary trough is made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1797, then 1.12827 before down.

There is a slew of manufacturing and services PMIs due today from the euro area but one should also keep an eye out for Germany’s Ifo consumer sentiment at 06:00GMT. Street forecast is -1.0 vs previous reading of -1.8. Elsewhere, Germany’s Financie Minister Olaf Scholx will present the 2021 draft budget at 11:00GMT.

AceTraderFx Sept 24 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1676
The single currency’s fall to a near 2-month bottom at 1.1652 on usd’s continued strength yesterday suggests decline from September’s 2-year peak at 1.2011 remains in progress and intra-day rebound on short-covering would yield consolidation before prospect of another fall later, below 1.1652 would extend to 1.1630/40, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1601 and yield correction.

On the upside, only above 1.1718 would indicate a temporary bottom has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1767 before prospect of another retreat.

Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports.
France business climate, Swiss SNB interest rate decision, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, UK CBI distributive trades.
U.S. building permit, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, new home sales, KC Fed manufacturing index, and Canada average weekly earnings.

AceTraderFx Sept 25 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1667
The single currency’s fall to a near 2-month bottom at 1.1627 on usd’s continued strength yesterday suggests decline from September’s 2-year peak at 1.2011 remains in progress and subsequent rebound on short-covering would yield consolidation before prospect of another fall later, below 1.1627 would extend to 1.1600/01, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1570/80 and yield correction.

On the upside, only above 1.1718 would indicate a temporary bottom has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1767 before prospect of another retreat.

Data to be released on Friday :
UK GfK consumer confidence, PSNB, PSNCR, Italy manufacturing business confidence, consumer confidence.
U.S. durable goods, durables ex-transportation, durables ex-defense, and Canada budget balance.

AceTraderFx Sept 28 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1623
The single currency’s fall to a near 2-month bottom at 1.1613 on usd’s continued strength on Friday suggests decline from September’s 2-year peak at 1.2011 remains in progress and subsequent rebound on short-covering would yield consolidation before prospect of another fall later, below 1.1613 would extend to 1.1580/90, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1560/64 and yield correction.

On the upside, only above 1.1718 would indicate a temporary bottom has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1767 before prospect of another retreat.

Data to be released today :
Japan leading indicator, coincident index.
And U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index on Monday.

AceTraderFx Sept 29 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1673
Despite the single currency’s fall to a near 2-month bottom at 1.1613 on Friday due usd’s continued strength, subsequent strong rebound to 1.1679 suggests decline from September’s 2-year peak at 1.2011 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias for gain to 1.1684/87, above would extend to 1.1718/21 before prospect of retreat later this week.

On the downside, only below 1.1643 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for weakness to 1.1613.

Pay attention to the release of EU business climate, economic sentiment and consumer sentiment at 09:00GMT. Street forecasts are -1.38, 89.5 and -13.9 vs previous readings of -1.33, 87.7 and -13.9 respectively.

AceTraderFx Sept 30 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1746
Despite the single currency’s fall to a near 2-month bottom at 1.1613 on Friday due usd’s continued strength, subsequent strong rebound to 1.1745 yesterday suggests decline from September’s 2-year peak at 1.2011 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias for gain to 1.1684/87, above would extend to 1.1774/75 before prospect of retreat later this week.

On the downside, only below 1.1679 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for weakness to 1.1640/43.

Pay attention to the release of Germany retail sales mm and yy at 06:00GMT. Street forecasts are 0.5% and 4.2% vs previous readings of 4.2% and -20.4%. There are a number of ECB policymakers due to speak today, with President Lagarde scheduled to speak at the ECB and its Watchers Conference in Frankfurt at 07:20GMT.

AceTraderFx Oct 05 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Oct 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1725
Despite euro’s resumption of upmove from September’s 8-week low at 1.1613 to 1.1769 on Thursday, subsequent retreat to 1.1697 Friday suggests temporary top is made and consolidation would be seen before prospect of another fall to 1.1662/66, break needed to head towards 1.1643.

On the upside, only above 1.1769 risks another rise to 1.1790/95 but 1.1812 should remain intact.

On the data front, there will be a slew of manufacturing PMI data released from the euro zone later today, as well as EU’s Sentix index and retail sales. Traders should pay attention to Germany and EU’s PMIs with street forecasts at 49.1 and 47.6 respectively versus previous readings of 49.1 and 47.6.

AceTraderFx Oct 06 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Oct 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1790
Euro’s yesterday’s rise above last Thursday’s 1.1769 high to 1.1797 in New York suggests recent upmove from September’s 8-week trough at 1.1613 to retrace decline from 2020 2-year peak at 1.2011 has resumed and further gain to 1.1830/40 would be seen after consolidation, however, overbought condition should cap price below 1.1870/71.

On the downside, only below 1.1742 indicates temporary top is made and risks 1.1721, then 1.1697/00.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand NZIER confidence, GDT price index, Australia AIG construction index, ANZ job advertisements, trade balance, imports, exports, RBA interest rate decision.
UK BRC retail sales, Markit construction PMI, China market holiday, Germany industrial orders.
U.S. trade balance, redbook, JOLTS job openings, and Canada trade balance, exports, imports.

AceTraderFx Oct 07 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Oct 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1733
Despite euro’s resumption of upmove from September’s 8-week low at 1.1613 to a 2-week high of 1.1807 at NY open yesterday, subsequent selloff to 1.1731 in Australia today on active safe-haven usd buying suggests temporary top is made and weakness to 1.1685 would be seen after consolidation but 1.1662/66 may hold.

On the upside, only above 1.1765/70 may risk re-test of 1.1807, break, 1.1827/32 later.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia AIG services index, China market holiday, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
Germany industrial output, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, UK Halifax house price index, labour productivity, Italy retail sales.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, and Canada Ivey PMI.

AceTraderFx Oct 08 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Oct 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1766
Despite euro’s resumption of upmove from September’s 8-week bottom at 1.1613 to 1.1807 on Tuesday, subsequent fall to 1.1726 in Asia yesterday suggests temporary top is made and Wednesday’s strong rebound to 1.1782 in New York on usd’s weakness would bring choppy sideways swings, above 1.1797 needed to head to 1.1807, break, 1.1827/30.

On the downside, only below 1.1720/26 would risk weakness to 1.1697/00 but 1.1685 may hold.

On the calendar front, Germany will release exports, imports, trade balance and current account at 06:00 GMT. We have also have a couple of ECB officials due to speak in European session and ECB monetary policy meeting account scheduled at 11:30. Please refer to our EI page for more details.

AceTraderFx Oct 09 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Oct 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1760
Despite euro’s resumption of upmove from September’s 8-week low at 1.1613 to 1.1807 on Tuesday, subsequent fall to 1.1726 Wednesday suggests temporary top made and yesterday’s rebound to 1.1781, then retreat o 1.1734 would bring choppy sideways swings.

Only above 1.1797 would bring re-test of 1.1807, break, 1.1827/30 later while below 1.1721/26, 1.1697/00.

On the data front, France will release industrial output at 06:45 GMT, followed by Italy industrial output at 08:00 GMT.

AceTraderFx Oct 12 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Oct 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1818
Euro’s rally on Friday and then break of last Tuesday’s 1.1807 high to a 17-day top of 1.1831 near New York close suggests recent upmove from September’s 1.1613 bottom to retrace decline from September’s 27-month 1.2011 peak has resumed and consolidation would be seen before heading to 1.1896/00 but 1.1917 should hold due to overbought condition.

On the downside, only below 1.1781/82 indicates temporary top made and risks retracement to 1.1734/39.

Data to be released today :
Japan corporate goods price index, machinery orders.
U.S. market holiday, and Canada market holiday on Monday.

AceTraderFx Oct 14 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Oct 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1748
Despite euro’s resumption of upmove from September’s 8-week bottom at 1.1613 to a 2-week high at 1.1831 Friday, yesterday’s selloff to 1.1732 on usd’s broad-based strength suggests temporary top is made an mild downside bias would be seen after consolidation, loss of momentum should keep price above 1.1685 today.

On the upside, only above 1.1800/05 indicates pullback has possibly ended and risks gain to 1.1826/31.

On the calendar front, EU will release industrial production at 09:00 GMT and we have some ECB officials due to speak, please refer to our Economic Indicators page for more details.

AceTraderFx Oct 15 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Oct 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1748
Although euro’s fall from Friday’s 2-1/2 week high at 1.1831 to 1.1720 suggests recent upmove from September’s 8-week bottom at 1.1613 has made a temporary top, subsequent rebound to 1.1770 in New York, then retreat to 1.1741 in Australia today would bring choppy sideways swings.

Above 1.1770 would head back to 1.1798/03 while below 1.1720 risks another drop to 1.1697/00.

On the data front, we have a slew of data from euro zone today, please refer to our Economic Indicators page for more details. Also, we have ECB President Christine Lagarde scheduled to speak at 16:00 GMT in the online CNBC Debate on the global economy during the IMF/World Bank Annual Meeting.