AceTraderForex April 25: Daily Market Outlook on USD/JPY

Trading Discussion Currencies
1016

AceTraderFx Nov 23: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 23 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.62
Despite the greenback’s selloff from 114.53 to as low as 113.59 on Friday due to tumbling U.S. Treasury yields, subsequent strong rebound suggests the correction from last Wednesday’s fresh 3-year peak at 114.97 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 114.53 would add credence and head to 114.70/75, however, said resistance should hold on 1st testing and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 113.89 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 113.59.

On the data front, the only eco. indicator from the U.S. is Richmond Fed manufacturing index.

1017

AceTraderFx Nov 24: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 24 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.89
Despite the greenback’s selloff from 114.53 to as low as 113.59 on Friday due to tumbling U.S. Treasury yields, subsequent strong rebound suggests the correction from last Wednesday’s fresh 3-year peak at 114.97 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 114.53 would add credence and head to 114.70/75, however, said resistance should hold on 1st testing and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 113.89 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 113.59.

Later today, we have data dump from the U.S. due to Thur’s Thanksgiving holiday, please refer to our EI page for details. Pay attention to Q3 GDP as well as PCE price (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge), if actual readings are higher than forecast, then expect U.S. yields to rise as well as the greenback.
Last but not the least, if you are still awake, we have release of previous FOMC minutes at 18:00GMT, however, market is expecting hawkish minutes.

1018

AceTraderFx Nov 25: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 25 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.32
The greenback’s rally this week to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 on Wednesday on renomination of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for a second term and hawkish comments from central bank officials suggests Medium Term uptrend would head to 115.90/00 after minor consolidation, however, overbought condition would keep price below 116.20/30 and yield a much-needed correction.

On the downside, only below 113.89 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 113.59.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Australia capital expenditure, building capex, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
Germany GDP, Gfk consumer sentiment, Italy trade balance.
U.S. Market Holiday and Canada average weekly earnings.

1019

AceTraderFx Nov 26: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 26 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.08
Despite the greenback’s rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 on Wednesday, intra-day selloff on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests MT uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 113.40/50 would be seen after consolidation, however, oversold condition would keep price above 113.00.

On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.

Data to be released on Friday:
Japan Tokyo CPI, Australia retail sales.
Swiss non-farm payrolls, GDP, France consumer confidence, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence.
Canada budget balance.

1020

AceTraderFx Nov 29: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 29 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.33
Despite the greenback’s rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 on Wednesday, intra-day selloff on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests MT uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 113.40/50 would be seen after consolidation, however, oversold condition would keep price above 113.00.

On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.

Data to be today:
Japan retail sales, Australia business inventories.
Italy producer prices, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, Swiss current account, producer prices.
US pending home sales and Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.

1021

AceTraderFx Nov 30: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 30 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 112.73
Despite the greenback’s rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.00 Monday and intra-day break below there on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests Medium Term uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 112.60/70, however, oversold condition would keep price above 112.30/40.

On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data n we also have a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York session, please refer to our EI page for details.
Pay attention to release of Chicago PMI n consumer confidence. Fed chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen testify before a Senate Banking Committee hybrid hearing at 15:00GMT.

1022

AceTraderFx Dec 01: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 01 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.40
Despite the greenback’s rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.00 Monday and intra-day break below there on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests MT uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 112.60/70, however, oversold condition would keep price above 112.30/40.

On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.

The U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details and pay attention to market-moving ADP private payrolls, then Market mfg PMI, ISM mfg index n last but not least Fed’s beige book.
Fed J. Powell will tesitfy again at Capital Hill but market reaction to more of his hawkish remarks is likely to much smaller after Tue’s move.

1023

AceTraderFx Dec 02: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 02 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.20
Despite the greenback’s rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.00 Monday and intra-day break below there on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests Medium Term uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 112.60/70, however, oversold condition would keep price above 112.30/40.

On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.

Market is keenly awaiting release of key U.S. jobs report on Fri n today, the only data due out are weekly jobless claims and continued jobless claims. We also have a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak, please refer to our EI page for details.
After Fed chair J. Powell’s 2 consecutive days of testimonies on Capital Hill n his official removal on Fed’s perception of U.S. inflation is no longer ‘transitory’, traders are unlikely to react to comments by other FOMC members.

1024

AceTraderFx Dec 03: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 03 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.42
Despite the greenback’s rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.00 Monday and intra-day break below there on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests MT uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 112.60/70, however, oversold condition would keep price above 112.30/40.

On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.

Data to be released on Friday:
Australia AIG construction index, services PMI, Japan services PMI, China caixin services PMI,
France budget balance, industrial output, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales, U.K. Markit services PMI.
U.S. Non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, Markit services PMI, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transport, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Canada employment change, unemployment rate and labor productivity rate.

1025

AceTraderFx Dec 06: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 06 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.17
Despite the greenback’s rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.00 Monday and intra-day break below there on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests Medium Term uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 112.60/70, however, oversold condition would keep price above 112.30/40.

On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.

Data to be released today:
Germany industrial orders, Italy retail sales, EU Sentix index and U.K. Markit construction PMI on Monday.

1026

AceTraderFx Dec 07: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 07 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.67
Despite the greenback’s rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.00 Monday and intra-day break below there on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests Medium Term uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 112.60/70, however, oversold condition would keep price above 112.30/40.

On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.

U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data which are unlikely to move the market as focus is on U.S. stocks n treasury yields, pls refer to our EI page for details.

1027

AceTraderFx Dec 08: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 08 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.45
The greenback’s rise to 113.77 on Tuesday due to a rally in U.S. stocks and Treasury yields suggests the 1st leg of correction from November’s fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 has ended at 112.54 last Tuesday and intra-day weakness would yield consolidation before prospect of another rise towards 114.20, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 114.50/60 and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 113.08/10 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 112.70/80.

On the data front, U.S. will later release second-tier eco. data starting with MBA mortgage applications n then JOLTS job openings.

1028

AceTraderFx Dec 09: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 09 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.45
The greenback’s rise to 113.77 on Tuesday due to a rally in U.S. stocks and Treasury yields suggests the 1st leg of correction from November’s fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 has ended at 112.54 last Tuesday and intra-day weakness would yield consolidation before prospect of another rise towards 114.20, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 114.50/60 and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 113.08/10 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 112.70/80.

On the eco. data front, U.S. will release initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, wholesale inventories n sales.

1029

AceTraderFx Dec 10: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 10 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.58
Dollar’s decline from this week’s high at 113.95 (Wed) to 113.28 yesterday on safe-haven yen buying suggests recent erratic rise from Nov’s 6-week bottom at 112.54 has possibly made a temporary top and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 113.08 but reckon 112.54 should hold from here.

Only abv 113.95 risks one more rise to 114.15/20 before prospect of another fall due to loss of upward momentum.

Data for Friday :
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, retail sales, Japan corporate goods price.
U.K. GDP, construction output, trade balance, industrial output, manufacturing output, NIESR GDP estimate, Germany CPI, Italy industrial output.
Canada capacity utilization, U.S. CPI, University of Michigan sentiment and Federal budget.

1030

AceTraderFx Dec 13: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 13 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.65
Dollar’s decline from this week’s high at 113.95 (Wed) to 113.28 yesterday on safe-haven yen buying suggests recent erratic rise from Nov’s 6-week bottom at 112.54 has possibly made a temporary top and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 113.08 but reckon 112.54 should hold from here.

Only abv 113.95 risks one more rise to 114.15/20 before prospect of another fall due to loss of upward momentum.

Data out today:
New Zealand business NZ PSI, Japan machinery orders, Tankan big manufacturing index, Tankan big non-manufacturing index, Tankan small manufacturing index and Tankan small non-manufacturing index.
Germany wholesale price index on Monday.

1031

AceTraderFx Dec 14: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 14 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.68
Dollar’s decline from this week’s high at 113.95 (Wed) to 113.28 yesterday on safe-haven yen buying suggests recent erratic rise from Nov’s 6-week bottom at 112.54 has possibly made a temporary top and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 113.08 but reckon 112.54 should hold from here.

Only above 113.95 risks one more rise to 114.15/20 before prospect of another fall due to loss of upward momentum.

U.S. will release PPI, core PPI n redbook retail sales.
The FOMC will start its 2-day monetary policy meeting later today.

1032

AceTraderFx Dec 15: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 15 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.66
Dollar’s 1-week long choppy trading from last Wed’s 113.95 high are likely to end later today and yield another rise due to expected Fed’s hawkish tilt, above 113.95 would extend upmove from Nov’s 112.54 low to retrace recent decline to 114.30/40.

On the downside, only below 113.23 signals said corrective rise has ended, then weakness to 113.08 and later 112.68/72 would be seen later this week.

Today is the today n at 19:00GMT, FOMC will announce its monetary policy decision n release Fed’s forward guidance (Fed’s dot plot). Then at 19:30GMT, Fed’s chair J. Powell will have to eat his humble pie in front of the press n publicly say the word ‘transitory’ whicih had been used repeatedly, despite market’s objection/rebuke, to describe Fed’s perception of U.S. rising inflation is dead, period.
Tuesday’s release of Nov’s PPI showed the index grew at the fastest pace on record. Ahead of FOMC announcement, we have a slew of U.S. eco. data, pls refr to our EI page for details.

1033

AceTraderFx Dec 16: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 16 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.13
Dollar’s break of last week’s high at 113.95 to 114.26 in post-FOMC New York after Fed’s hawkish tilt suggests correction from Nov’s 115.51 peak has ended earlier at 112.54 and further gain to 114.60/70 may be seen after consolidation before retreat due to loss of near term upward momentum.

On the downside, only a daily close below 113.95 dampens bullish outlook and risks weakness twd 113.44 later.

Data release on Thursday:
New Zealand food price index, Australia manufacturing index, services PMI, employment change, unemployment change, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Jibun bank manufacturing PMI, China retail sales.
France business climate, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Swiss SNB interest rate decision, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI,EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, trade balance, labour cost, ECB refinancing rate, ECB deposit rate, Italy trade balance, global trade balance, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, BOE interest rate decision, asset purchase programme, BOE QE total, BOE QE corporate bond purchase, BOE MOC vote hike, BOE MPC vote unchanged, BOE MPC vote cut.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, KC Fed manufacturing, Canada wholesale trade and ADP employment change.

1034

AceTraderFx Dec 17: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 17 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.56
Despite the greenback’s rally to 114.26 in post-FOMC trading on Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.57 yesterday in tandem with U.S. yields and intra-day break below there to 113.45 in post-BOJ trading suggests early rise from 112.54 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger weakness to 113.23, however, 113.00/10 should remain intact and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 113.85 (Asia) would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and bring gain towards 114.26 again.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand NBNZ business outlook, NBNZ own activity, U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, retail sales, Japan BoJ interest rate decision, Germany producer prices, wholesale price index, Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, France business climate, U.K. Markit services PMI, EU construction output, HICP, Canada wholesale trade and budget balance.

1035

AceTraderFx Dec 20: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 20 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.42
Despite the greenback’s rally to 114.26 in post-FOMC trading on Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.57 yesterday in tandem with U.S. yields and intra-day break below there to 113.45 in post-BOJ trading suggests early rise from 112.54 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger weakness to 113.23, however, 113.00/10 should remain intact and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 113.85 (Asia) would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and bring gain towards 114.26 again.

Data to be released today:
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports.
U.K. Rightmove house price, CBI trends orders.
U.S. leading index change on Monday.