AceTraderFx Sept 23: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Sept 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 142.40
Despite dollar’s brief gain to a fresh 24-year peak of 145.89 after BoJ’s dovish hold Thur, subsequent selloff to 140.36 on BoJ’s ‘unilateral’ yen buying intervention signals temporary top made, rebound to 142.50 in New York signals 1st leg of correction is over and further gain towards 143.08 would be seen but 143.78 should hold.
On the downside, only a daily close below 141.77 would risk weakness to 141.15/20.
Data to be released on Friday:
France S n P manufacturing PMI, S n P global services PMI, Germany S n P manufacturing PMI, S n P global services PMI, EU S n P manufacturing PMI, S n P global services PMI, U.K. S n P manufacturing PMI, S n P global services PMI, CBI distributive trades.
Canada retail sales, U.S. S n P manufacturing PMI and S n P global services PMI.
AceTraderFx Sept 26: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Sept 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 143.67
Despite dollar’s brief gain to a fresh 24-year peak of 145.89 after BoJ’s dovish hold last Thursday, subsequent selloff to 140.36 on BoJ’s ‘unilateral’ yen buying intervention suggests a temporary top is made, Friday’s gain to 143.46 in New York signals 1st leg of correction over.
Intra-day retreat from 144.26 signals top possibly made and below 143.68 would yield further weakness towards 142.85 whilst above 144.25, 144.40/50 later.
Data to be released later :
Germany Ifo business cliamte, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, U.S. national activity index and Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Sept 27: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Sept 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 144.32
Despite dollar’s brief gain to a fresh 24-year peak of 145.89 after BoJ’s dovish hold last Thursday, subsequent selloff to 140.36 on BoJ’s ‘unilateral’ yen buying intervention suggests temporary top is made, Friday’s gain to 143.46 in New York signals 1st leg of correction over and as 144.78 (New York) has capped upside, below 143.80 would yield weakness towards 143.26 but 142.59 should hold.
On the upside, only a daily close above 144.78 would risk stronger gain to 145.30/40.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Italy trade balance non-EU.
U.S. building permits, durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, redbook, monthly home price, consumer confidence, new home sales and Richmond Fed manufacturing.
AceTraderFx Sept 28: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Sept 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 144.67
Despite dollar’s brief gain to a fresh 24-year peak of 145.89 after BoJ’s dovish hold last Thursday, subsequent selloff to 140.36 on BoJ’s ‘unilateral’ yen buying intervention suggests a temporary top is made, yesterday’s gain to 144.90 in New York signals correction is over but above 145.00 is needed to yield re-test of 145.89, break, 146.70/80.
On the downside, below 144.07 would revive bearishness fo weakness towards 143.26/28
Data to be released on Wednesday:
U.K. BRC shop price index, Australia retail sales, Japan coincident index, leading index, Germany Gfk consumer confidence, France consumer confidence, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, industrial sales.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories and pending home sales.
AceTraderFx Sept 29: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Sept 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 144.71
Despite dollar’s brief gain to a fresh 24-year peak of 145.89 after BoJ’s dovish hold last Thursday, subsequent selloff to 140.36 on BoJ’s ‘unilateral’ yen intervention suggests a temporary top is made, gain to 144.90 on Tuesday signals correction is possibly over.
As usd has risen from 143.92 (Wednesday), above 144.90/00 would head to 145.40/50 whilst below 143.92 would yield weakness towards 143.54, then 143.26/28.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Italy producer prices, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI.
U.S. GDP, PCE prices, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Canada GDP and average weekly earnings.
AceTraderFx Sept 30: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Sept 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 144.36
Despite dollar’s brief gain to a fresh 24-year peak of 145.89 after BoJ’s dovish hold last Thur, subsequent selloff to 140.36 on BoJ’s ‘unilateral’ yen intervention suggests a temporary top is made, gain to 144.90 on Tue signals correction is possibly over.
Dollar’s daily wild swings may continue and above 144.90/00 needed for stronger gain towards 145.40, 145.89, below 143.92, 143.28.
Data to be released on Friday:
Germany import prices, retail sales, unemployment change, unemployment rate, U.K. current account, GDP, nationwide house prices, Swiss retail sales, KOF indicator, France CPI, consumer spending, producer prices, Italy unemployment rate, CPI, EU HICP, unemployment rate.
U.S. personal spending, personal income, core PCE price index, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment and Canada budget balance.
AceTraderFx Oct 03: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Oct 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 145.00
Despite dollar’s brief gain to a fresh 24-year peak of 145.89 after BoJ’s dovish hold last Thur, subsequent selloff to 140.36 on BoJ’s ‘unilateral’ yen intervention suggests a temporary top is made, gain to 144.90 on Tuesday signals correction is possibly over.
Dollar’s daily wild swings may continue and above 144.90/00 needed for stronger gain towards 145.40, 145.89, below 143.92, 143.28.
Data to be released later:
Swiss CPI, manufacturing PMI, France budget balance, S n P manufacturing PMI, Italy S n P manufacturing PMI, Germany S n P manufacturing PMI, EU S n P manufacturing PMI.
U.K. S n P manufacturing PMI, Canada S n P manufacturing PMI, U.S. S n P manufacturing PMI, construction spending and ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday.
AceTraderFx Oct 05: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Oct 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 144.44
Despite dollar’s brief gain to a fresh 24-year peak of 145.89 after BoJ’s dovish hold last Thursday, subsequent selloff to 140.36 on BoJ’s ‘unilateral’ yen intervention suggests a temporary top is made, gain to 144.90 on Tue signals correction is possibly over.
Dollar’s daily wild swings may continue and above 144.90/00 needed for stronger gain towards 145.40, 145.89, below 143.92, 143.28.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
France industrial output, Italy S n P global services PMI, France S n P global services PMI, Germany S n P global services PMI, EU S n P global services PMI, U.K. S n P global services PMI.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, ADP employment change, international trade balance, goods trade balance, S n P global services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Canada building permits, trade balance, exports and imports.
AceTraderFx Oct 06: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Oct 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 144.64
Although dollar’s recent rise from 140.36 to 145.31 (Monday) suggests the correction from September’s 24-year peak at 145.89 over, subsequent decline would yield further sideways swings, Wednesday’s rise from 143.54 to 144.84 signals pullback possibly over and above 144.93 would bring stronger gain towards 145.31.
Retreat to 144.39 in Asia may prolong choppy trading before up and only below 144.27/32 risks stronger retracement towards 144.00, break, 143.70/80.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Germany industrial orders, EU retail sales.
U.S. S n P construction PMI, U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims and Canada Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Oct 07: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Oct 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 144.82
Despite dollar’s brief but sharp fall from Sep’s 24-year peak of 145.89 to 140.36 on BoJ’s unilateral yen buying intervention, subsequent strong rise to 145.31 Monday signals correction over n as price has risen after retreat to 143.54, bullishness remains but above 145.89 needed to head to 146.30/40.
On the downside, a daily close below 144.39 would yield stronger retracement to 143.80/90.
Data to be released on Friday:
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany import prices, industrial output, retail sales, U.K. Halifax house prices, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, Italy retail sales.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, Canada employment change and unemployment rate.
AceTraderFx Oct 10: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Oct 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 145.51
Despite dollar’s brief but sharp fall from Sep’s 24-year peak of 145.89 to 140.36 on BoJ’s unilateral yen buying intervention, subsequent strong rise to 145.31 Mon, then Fri’s gain to 145.44 in post-NFP New York suggests consolidation with upside bias remains for re-test 145.89, above may head towards 146.30.
On the downside, only a daily close below 144.93 would risk stronger retracement towards 144.64.
Data to be released later:
EU Sentix index.
U.S. market holiday, Canada market holiday on Monday.
AceTraderFx Oct 11: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Oct 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 145.53
Despite dollar’s brief but sharp fall from Sep’s 24-year peak of 145.89 to 140.36 on BoJ’s unilateral yen buying intervention, subsequent strong rise in tandem with US yields to 145.85 yesterday would re-test 145.89 and above would head to 146.30, then towards 146.96.
Stand aside initially due to BoJ’s intervention risk and only a daily close below 145.24 would yield stronger retracement towards 144.96, then 144.64.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
U.K. BRC retail sales, U.K. climate count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, Italy industrial output, Swiss leading index.
U.S. redbook.
AceTraderFx Oct 12: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Oct 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 146.23
Dollar’s intra-day rally above Sep’s 24-year peak at 145.89 to 146.38 in Asia signals long term upmove has once again resumed and despite intervention warnings by Japan officials, outlook remains bullish for gain towards next projected target at 146.96 ‘later’.
On the downside, only a daily close below 145.71/74 would indicate temporary top made and risk stronger retracement towards 145.43, break, 144.93/03.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
U.K. GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, EU industrial output.
U.S. MBA mortgage application and U.S. PPI.
AceTraderFx Oct 13: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Oct 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 146.82
Dollar’s rally on Wed above Sep’s 24-year peak at 145.89 in Asia to 146.38 and subsequent gain on broad-based yen selling to 146.98 in New York suggests long term uptrend would head to 147.30, however, overbought condition would cap price below 1998 peak at 147.64 and yield a much-needed correction.
On the downside, only a daily close below 146.38 would indicate a temporary top is in place and risk stronger retracement towards 145.89, then possibly 145.43.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Germany CPI, Swiss producer/import prices.
U.S. CPI, initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims.
It seems to me that since the beginning of this topic, the situation has clearly changed dramatically.
AceTraderFx Oct 14: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Oct 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 147.62
Dollar’s rally on Wed above Sep’s 24-year peak at 145.89 in Asia to 146.38 and subsequent gain on broad-based yen selling to 146.98 in New York suggests long term uptrend would head to 147.30, however, overbought condition would cap price below 1998 peak at 147.64 and yield a much-needed correction.
On the downside, only a daily close below 146.38 would indicate a temporary top is in place and risk stronger retracement towards 145.89, then possibly 145.43.
Data to be released on Friday :
Germany wholesale price index, France CPI, EU trade balance.
U.S. import prices, export prices, retail sales, business inventories, University of Michigan sentiment, Canada manufacturing sales and wholesales trade.
AceTraderFx Oct 17: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Oct 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 148.77
Despite Fri’s anticipated gain to a fresh 32-year high of 148.86 due to renewed usd’s strength in choppy New York trading, overbought condition and weekend’s warnings by JP officials on yen strength (see MMN) may prevent strong gain above projected resistance at 149.10/20.
On the downside, only a daily close below 148.00/10 needed
to signal temporary top is made and yield weakness towards 147.67, break, 147.25.
Data to be released later :
U.K. Rightmove house price, Japan tertiary industry activities, industrial output, capacity utilization, Italy CPI.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing and Federal budget on Monday.
AceTraderFx Oct 18: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Oct 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 149.02
Despite dollar’s marginal rise above Fri’s fresh 32-year 148.86 high to 149.08 in New York on cross-selling in yen, near term loss of upward momentum is likely to cap price below 149.50 and yield a much-needed minor retracement, below 148.42 would head back to 148.00/05.
On the upside, only a daily close below above 149.50 would risk stronger gain to 149.90/00.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Italy trade balance, EU ZEW survey expectations, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions.
Canada housing starts, U.S. redbook, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output and NAHB housing market index.
AceTraderFx Oct 19: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Oct 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 149.42
Despite dollar’s marginal rise above Monday’s fresh 32-year 149.08 high to 149.38 (New York) on cross-selling in yen, near term loss of upward momentum is likely to cap price below 149.50 and yield a much-needed correction, below 148.89 (New York low) would head to 148.42/45.
On the upside, a daily close above 149.50/60 would revive bullishness for stronger gain to 150.00 psychological handle before a much-needed correction later.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
U.K. CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, EU construction output, HICP, U.S. MBA mortgage application, building permits, housing starts, Canada CPI and producer prices.
AceTraderFx Oct 20: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Oct 2022 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 149.93
Although dollar has remained firm after yesterday’s resumption of uptrend in tandem with U.S. yields to a fresh 32-year high of 149.90, a daily close above 150.00 handle needed to extend gain to 151.70/80 but loss of momentum would prevent strong rise today.
Present spike from 150.07 to 149.65 on possible BOJ’s rate check may head to 149.11/15, break, 148.86.
Data to released on Thursday:
Germany producer prices, Swiss exports, imports, trade balance, France business climate, EU current account.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index, existing home sales and leading index.