AceTraderForex April 25: Daily Market Outlook on USD/JPY

Trading Discussion Currencies
369

AceTraderFx Dec 03 : Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Dec 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 113.49
Dollar’s intra-day gap-up open to 113.85 in New Zealand on active yen selling due to trade optimism after U.S. and China had agreed to halt tariffs for 90 days suggests pullback from last Wednesday’s 2-week peak at 144.04 has ended at 133.20 (Thursday), subsequent retreat would bring consolidation before another rise, above 144.04 would re-test November’s top at 144.21, then towards 144.55 (Oct’s high).

Only below 113.20 would dampen bullish view and risk weakness to 112.88/89, then 112.66 but 112.31 should hold.

Data to be later today:
Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, UK Markit manufacturing PMI.
Canada Markit manufacturing PMI, and U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI.

370

AceTraderFx Dec 05 : Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Dec 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 113.04
Despite yesterday’s selloff to 112.57 on dollar’s broad-based weakness, subsequent rebound suggests the near term fall from last week’s high at 114.04 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen, however, 113.38 (previous support) would remain intact, yield another fall towards said support, break would extend weakness to 112.31.

On the upside, only above 113.28 would dampen daily bearishness and risk gain towards 113.69/71, then 113.85 but said 114.04 top should hold on first testing.

A reminder that U.S. markets will be closed today as President Trump designated it a National Day of Mourning in honor of former U.S. President George H.W. Bush.
The only U.S. data due out is the Fed’s beige book. BoJ Gov. will be speaking at a financial venue in Tokyo at 09:30GMT.

371

AceTraderFx Dec 06 : Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Dec 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 113.01
Despite intra-day selloff to 112.58 in Asia on risk averse buying of JPY, subsequent strong rebound suggests further choppy trading above Tuesday’s trough at 112.57 would continue with upside bias and above 113.24 would yield stronger retracement of recent decline from 114.04 to 113.69/71 before prospect of another retreat early next week.

On the downside, only below 112.57/58 would revive bearishness for weakness towards November’s trough at 112.31, break would signal erratic decline from 114.21 (Nov) has resumed and extend towards 111.90/92.

Data to be released later on Thursday :
Germany industrial orders, France current account.
U.S. ADP employment change, trade balance, initial jobless claims, labor costs, productivity, Markit services PMI, durable goods, durable ex-defense, durable ex-transport, factory orders, ISM non-manufacturing PMI.
Canada trade balance, exports, imports, Ivey PMI.

372

AceTraderFx Dec 07 : Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Dec 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 112.84
Despite yesterday’s selloff to 112.24 in Asia on risk averse buying of JPY, subsequent strong rebound suggests further choppy trading above Tuesday’s trough at 112.57 would continue with upside bias and above 113.24 would yield stronger retracement of recent decline from 114.04 to 113.69/71, however, 113.85 would remain intact ahead of U.S. jobs report.

On the downside, only below 112.57/58 would revive bearishness for weakness towards November’s trough at 112.31, break would signal erratic decline from 114.21 (Nov) has resumed and extend towards 111.90/92.

Data to be released later on Friday :
Germany industrial output, France industrial output, trade balance, import, export, U.K. Halifax house prices, Italy retail sales, EU GDP revised.
Canada employment change, unemployment rate and U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earning, University of Michigan sentiment prelim, wholesale inventories, wholesale.

373

AceTraderFx Dec 10 : Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Dec 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 112.66
Despite the greenback’s intra-day fall and re-test of last Thursday’s 1-month low at 113.24, failure to penetrate this level and subsequent rebound suggests choppy trading above there is in store and marginal gain is likely to be seen, however, resistance at 112.92 should remain intact and yield another fall later.
Below 112.24 would extend decline from November’s peak at 114.21 towards 111.92 later.

On the upside, only above 112.92 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger gain toward but 113.24 should cap price and yield retreat.

Data to be released later :
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, EU ECJ ruling on Article 50, Italy industrial output, UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, goods trade balance GBP, trade balance non-EU, NIESR GDP estimate.
Canada housing starts, building permits, ADP employment change and U.S. JOLTS job openings on Monday.

374

AceTraderFx Dec 11 : Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Dec 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 113.06
Despite the greenback’s intra-day fall and re-test of last Thursday’s 1-month low at 113.24, failure to penetrate this level and subsequent rebound suggests choppy trading above there is in store and marginal gain is likely to be seen, however, resistance at 112.92 should remain intact and yield another fall later. Below 112.24 would extend decline from November’s peak at 114.21 towards 111.92 later.

On the upside, only above 112.92 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger gain towards but 113.24 should cap price and yield retreat.

375

AceTraderFx x Dec 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Dec 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 113.43
Despite the greenback’s retreat from 113.52 to 113.15 yesterday, subsequent rebound suggests consolidation with upside bias remains for upmove from last Thursday’s 1-month trough at 112.24 to resume and yield re-test of said resistance, break would extend towards 113.85.
However, loss of momentum would keep price below daily resistance at 114.21 and yield correction early next week.

On the downside, only below 113.01 would indicate aforesaid rise has made a temporary top there and risk would increase for a stronger retracement towards 112.90/92.

U.S. eco. calendar is pretty light with second-tier initial jobless claims and export n import prices being the only data due out today.

376

AceTraderFx Dec 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Dec 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 112.36
Dollar intra-day brief break of previous Dec’s 112.24 low due to renewed safe-haven yen buying suggests erratic fall from 114.21 (November) has resumed and although downside bias remains for marginal weakness in anticipation of Fed’s dovish hike later today, near term loss of momentum should keep price above 111.60/70.

Only a daily close above 112.86 confirms temporary low has been made, then risk is seen for stronger retracement to 113.15/25 later.

On the data front ahead of Fed’s rate decision n Fed Chair J. Powell’s post-FOMC presser, U.S. will release MBA mortgage applications, current account n exiting home sales.

377

AceTraderFx Dec 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Dec 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.92
Dlr’s intra-day break of Wednesday’s 6-week low at 112.09 due to active safe-haven yen buying on renewed weakness in Asian stocks and falling U.S. yields suggests erratic fall from 114.21 (November) remains in force and would extend marginal weakness, loss of momentum should keep price above key daily sup at 111.38 (October low) today and risk has increased for a correction to take place tomorrow.

On the upside, above 112.30/35 indicates temporary low is in place and yields stronger recovery to 112.60/67 before prospect of another fall next week.

On the data front, U.S. will release weekly jobless claims, Philly Fed survey and leading indicator.

378

AceTraderFx Dec 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Dec 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.24
Although price has recovered after yesterday’s selloff to a fresh 3-month trough at 110.82 on active cross-buying in jpy and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals erratic decline from October’s peak at 114.55 has resumed, downside bias is retained for another fall early next week and below 110.82 would extend to 110.50/60, however, over sold condition would keep price above 110.38.

On the upside, only above 111.83 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 112.09/10.

The euro area countries will release some eco data starting with Germany’s Gfk consumer confidence, import n export price, then France’s eco. climate, consumer spending, final GDP n PPI n Italy’s business and cosumer confidence. ECB’s Vice President will deliver a speech in Mardid at 11:00GMT.

379

AceTraderFx Dec Dec 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Dec 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.03
Although price has recovered after Friday’s selloff to a fresh 3-month trough at 110.82 on active cross-buying in jpy and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals erratic decline from October’s peak at 114.55 has resumed, downside bias is retained for another fall later this week and below 110.82 would extend to 110.50/60, however, over sold condition would keep price above 110.38.

On the upside, only above 111.83 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 112.09/10.

On the eco data front, the only U.S. data due out is Nov Chicago national activity index at 13:30GMT.

380

AceTraderFx Dec 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Dec 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 110.90
Despite this week’s resumption of recent downtrend to a fresh 4-month bottom of 110.00 in holiday-thinned Tokyo session on Tuesday, yesterday’s impressive rally in New York to as high as 111.40 due to a near 5% rebound on Wall Street suggests long-awaited correction has occurred and intra-day retreat in Europe would bring choppy sideways swings before further gain, loss of momentum would cap price at 111.81/85.

On the downside, only a daily close below 110.68 signals correction has ended and risks weakness towards 110.29, then re-test of 110.00.

On the economic data front, we have EU’s economic bulletin; Swiss investor sentiment; U.S. weekly jobless claims, building permits, monthly home price, consumer confidence and new home sales.

381

AceTraderFx Dec 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Dec 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 110.41
Dollar’s intra-day weakness after yesterday’s brief but strong rebound from 110.46 to 111.10 in New York suggests correction from Tuesday’s fresh 4-month bottom at 110.00 has possibly ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for re-test of said temporary low, break there would extend recent decline towards next daily obj. at 109.78 (August trough).

On the upside, only above 111.10 prolongs choppy sideways swings and may risk another rise towards 111.40.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan Tokyo CPI, unemployment rate, industrial production, retail sales.
Germany import price index, CPI, HICP, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy unemployment rate, UK BBA mortgage approvals.
U.S. goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, Chicago PMI, new home sales, pending home sales.

382

AceTraderFx Dec 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Dec 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 110.20
Friday’s weakness to 110.15 suggests dollar’s correction from Tuesday’s fresh 4-month trough at 110.00 has ended at 1111.40, however, below said sup is needed to extend recent decline to next chart obj. at 109.78, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 109.55.

On the upside, only above 110.81/86 would prolong choppy trading above 110.00 and risk stronger gain towards 111.10 but 111.40 should remain intact.

The only eco. data due out later today in the U.S. is Dallas Fed mfg business index for Dec. Happy New Year !

383

AceTraderFx Jan 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.22
Dollar’s intra-day fall below Monday’s low at 109.57 to a fresh 7-month trough at 109.13 suggests erratic decline from 2018 peak at 114.55 (October) remains in progress and further weakness towards 109.00, then 108.85/90 would be seen.
However, over sold condition would keep price above 108.70/73 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 110.00 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk would increase for a stronger retracement towards 110.40/50 before down.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
France market holiday, Italy market holiday, Swiss market holiday, Germany market holiday, Canada market holiday, and U.S. market holiday.

384

AceTraderFx Jan 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 107.61
Despite the greenback’s ‘flash crash’ to a fresh 9-month trough at 104.79 in Australia on active safe-haven jpy buying due to Apple news, subsequent strong rebound to 107.85 suggests Medium Term decline from 2018 peak at 114.55 (October) has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen.
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 108.70/71 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.

On the downside, only below 105.67 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk re-test of 104.79, break, 104.10/20 later.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Japan market holiday, Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, UK Markit construction PMI.
US MBA mortgage application, building permits, ADP employment change, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories initial jobless claims, ISM New York index, new home sales, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI.

385

AceTraderFx Jan 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 107.93
Despite the greenback’s ‘flash crash’ to a fresh 9-month trough at 104.79 in Australia on Thursday on active safe-haven jpy buying due to Apple news, subsequent strong rebound to 108.31, then 108.45 today suggests Medium Term decline from 2018 peak at 114.55 (October) has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 108.70/71 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.

On the downside, only below 105.67 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk re-test of 104.79, break, 104.10/20 later.

Data to be released on Friday :
UK BRC shop price index, nationwide house price, Markit services PMI, France CPI (EU norm), CPI, Italy Markit services PMI, CPI, CPI (EU norm), France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, unemployment change, unemployment rate, EU HICP, producer prices.
U.S. building permits, goods trade balance, wholesales inventories, non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, Markit services PMI, new home sales, construction spending, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate, producer prices.

386

AceTraderFx Jan 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.13
Despite the greenback’s ‘flash crash’ to a fresh 9-month trough at 104.79 last Thursday on active safe-haven JPY buying due to Apple news, subsequent strong rebound to 108.30, then 108.74 today suggests Medium Term decline from 2018 peak at 114.55 (October) has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen, however, near term loss of momentum would cap price below 109.00 and yield a much-needed correction.

On the downside, only below 105.67 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk re-test of 104.79, break, 104.10/20 later.

On the data front, we have Germany’s industrial orders and retail sales, then EU’s Sentix investor confidence index and retail sales.

387

AceTraderFx Jan 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.92
Despite the greenback’s ‘flash crash’ to a fresh 9-month trough at 104.79 last Thursday on active safe-haven jpy buying, subsequent strong rebound to 108.30, then 109.09 today suggests Medium Term decline from 2018 peak at 114.55 (October) has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen, however, near term loss of momentum would cap price below 109.45/50 and yield a much-needed correction.

On the downside, only below 107.52 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness towards 105.67 later this week.

On the data front, U.S. will release a slew of data starting with whole inventories, Redbook sales, JOLTS job openings, durable goods order, factory orders, new home sales n construction spending later.

388

AceTraderFx Jan 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Jan 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 107.90
Despite the greenback’s rise to 109.09 on Tuesday, subsequent retreat suggests the first leg of correction from January’s 9-1/2 month trough at 104.79 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 107.52, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 107.12 and yield rebound early next week.

On the upside, only above 108.68 would indicate said pullback has ended instead and risk re-test of 109.09, break would extend towards 109.50/60.

Data to be released on Thursday :
UK BRC retail sales, France industrial ouput, Italy retail sales.
Canada building permits, new housing price index, and U.S. building permits, initial jobless claims, trade balance, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, durable goods, durables ex-defense, durables ex-transport, factory orders, new home sales, construction spending.