AceTraderFx Feb 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Feb 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.75
Intra-day break of yesterday’s 6-week high at 110.65 suggests recent upmove from January’s 9-month trough of 104.79 remains in progress and further gain towards 111.10 would be seen but loss of momentum should cap price below 111.38/45 and yield correction.
Only below 110.16 would indicate temporary top made, risk weakness to 109.76/80 before prospect of rebound.
Data to release on Wednesday :
Australia Westpac consumer survey, Japan corp goods price, New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision.
UK CPI, RPI, PPI input, PPI output, EU industrial production.
U.S. CPI, real weekly earnings, Federal budget.
AceTraderFx Feb 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Feb 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.09
The greenback’s break of yesterday’s 6-week peak at 111.06 on Trump’s extension for China tariffs deadline to 111.13 suggests erratic upmove from January’s 9-month trough at 104.79 remains in progress and further gain towards 111.40 would be seen, however, over bought condition would keep price below resistance at 111.72 and yield correction.
On the downside, only below 110.65 (previous resistance, now support) would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.35.
Data to be released later :
France ILO unemployment rate, Germany GDP, wholesale price index, Swiss producer/import price, EU employment change, GDP.
U.S. initial jobless claims, PPI, retail sales, business inventories, and Canada manufacturing sales, new housing price index.
Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Feb 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.58
Although price has recovered after dollar’s selloff from last Thursday’s 6-week peak at 111.13 to 110.26 Friday and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals upmove from January’s 9-month trough at 104.79 has made a temporary top there, reckon 110.69 (50% r) would limit upside and yield another fall later this week, below 110.26 would extend towards 109.90/00.
On the upside, only above 110.80 (61.8% r) would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk re-test of 111.13 later this week.
Data out today:
Japan machinery orders, UK Rightmove house prices, Canada and U.S. market holiday on Monday.
AceTraderFx Feb 19: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Feb 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.67
Dollar’s selloff from last Thursday’s 6-week high at 111.13 to 110.26 Friday suggests recent upmove from January’s 9-month trough of 104.79 has made a temporary top there, subsequent rebound to 110.65, then intra-day brief break of said res to 110.71 on Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda’s dovish comments would bring range trading with mild upside bias but 110.82/87 should hold and yield retreat.
On the downside, below 110.46 (Asia) would bring re-test of 110.26, where break would extend to 109.85/90.
As there is no major eco. data due today, focus remains on Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester’s speech on economic outlook and monetary policy in Newark at 13:50GMT.
AceTraderFx Feb 20: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Feb 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.87
Dollar’s intra-day break of Tuesday’s high at 110.82 to 110.95 in Europe on cross-selling in yen suggests pullback from last Thursday’s 6-week high of 111.13 has ended at 110.26 on Friday and further gain towards 111.40 would be seen but loss of upward momentum should cap price below 111.72, yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 110.46/50 would risk re-test of 110.26, break would extend fall to 109.90/95.
BoJ’s Governor Kuroda comments yesterday pressured the yen lower across the board and he is set to speak again in the Japanese Parliament at 05:30GMT. Traders should expect more yen jawboning after today’s weak Japan exports data.
AceTraderFx Feb 21: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Feb 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.77
Although dollar’s rise from last Friday’s 110.26 low to 110.95 yesterday suggests pullback from February’s 6-week high of 111.13 has ended, subsequent retreat to 110.59 in Asian morning today suggests range trading would be seen before upmove from January’s 9-month trough of 104.79 resumes and extend towards 111.40/45.
On the downside, only below 110.46 would prolong choppy trading and risk weakness to 110.26, then 109.90/00.
Data due out later on Thursday :
Germany CPI, HICP, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, France business climate, CPI, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, UK PSNB, PSNCR, Italy CPI, Canada wholesale trade, ADP employment change.
U.S. durable goods, durables ex-transport, ex-defense, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, existing home sales, leading indicator.
AceTraderFx Feb 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Feb 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.74
Although dollar’s rise from last Friday’s 110.26 low to 110.95 Wednesday suggests correction from February’s 6-week top of 111.13 has ended, subsequent retreat to 110.57 yesterday would bring range trading before upmove from January’s 9-month trough of 104.79 heads to 111.40/45.
On the downside, only below 110.46 would risk weakness towards 110.26, break would extend to 109.90/00.
T.G.I.F., although no U.S. eco. data is due out today, we have many Fed official scheduled to speak during New York session (please refer to our EI section for details).
AceTraderFx Feb 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Feb 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.65
Dollar’s initial rise to 110.86 at Asian open due to weekend positive U.S.-China trade talk news then retreat to 110.58 on renewed concerns over talks suggests further choppy trading inside recent 111.13-110.26 range would continue, subsequent rebound has retained bullishness and above 110.95 would bring re-test of Feb’s 6-week high of 111.13, break, 111.40/45.
On the downside, only below 110.46 would risk weakness towards 110.26 before prospect of rebound.
Data out today:
Japan coincident index, leading economic index, and U.S. Chicago national activity index, wholesale sales, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Feb 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Feb 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.84
Despite dollar’s resumption of upmove from January’s 9-month trough of 104.79 to a near 2-month high of 111.23 in New York yesterday, subsequent strong retreat suggests temporary top made and stronger retracement towards 110.46 would be seen, break would extend to 110.26 but 110.00/10 should remain intact, yield rebound.
On the upside, only above 111.23 would risk marginal gain towards 111.40 before prospect of correction.
Mkt focus is now on Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee at 15:00GMT. In the wake of recent weaker-than-expected U.S. eco. data, traders are looking for hints on whether then central bank will consider any rate hikes this year, and if so, how many.
AceTraderFx Feb 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Feb 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.38
Despite dollar’s intra-day recovery to 110.63 Asia, subsequent fall and break of yesterday’s 110.43 low on risk aversion due to geopolitical tension between India and Pakistan suggests upmove from January’s 9-month trough of 104.79 has made a temporary top at Monday’s near 2-month high at 111.23 and stronger retracement towards 110.26 would be seen.
On the upside, only above 110.89 would indicate pullback has ended instead, risk re-test of 111.23, break, 111.40/45.
A slew of U.S. data is expected to be released today but one should keep an eye for factory orders at 15:00GMT. Street forecast is for a 0.5% increase vs previous reading of -0.6%. Chairman Powell is scheduled to repeat his testimony at 15:00GMT, this time to the House Financial Services Committee.
AceTraderFx Feb 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Feb 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.72
Despite yesterday’s rally from 110.36 (Europe) to 110.07 in New York on rising U.S. yields, subsequent retreat and intra-day fall due to safe-haven yen buying on U.S.-North Korea news suggests further choppy trading below Monday’s near 2-month high of 111.23 would continue and below 110.36 would extend decline towards 110.26, then 109.90/00.
On the upside, only above 110.93 would indicate pullback has ended instead, risks gain to 111.07, then possibly re-test of 111.23.
Data out on Thursday :
Japan industrial output, retail sales, construction orders, housing starts, New Zealand NBNZ business outlook, NBNZ own activity, Australia capital expenditure, building capex.
UK GfK consumer confidence, nationwide house price, Swiss GDP, KOF indicator, Germany import prices, CPI, HICP, France consumer spending, GDP, CPI, producer prices.
U.S. GDP, PCE, initial jobless claims, Chicago PMI, KC Fed manufacturing index, and Canada current account, producer prices.
AceTraderFx Mar 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Mar 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.84
Dollar’s rally above Monday’s 8-week high of 111.23 to 111.49 yesterday due to upbeat U.S. GDP data and intra-day break of said resistant suggests recent upmove from January’s 9-month trough of 104.79 would extend towards 111.95/00 but near term loss of upward momentum would cap price below 112.24 and yield correction later.
On the downside, only below 111.23 would signal temporary top has been made, risk weakness to 111.07, break, 110.66/70.
Data out on Friday :
Germany import prices, Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment change, unemployment rate, Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, France Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, HICP, unemployment rate, UK Markit manufacturing PMI.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE, Markit manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada GDP.
AceTraderFx Mar 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Mar 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.93
Despite the greenback’s retreat from last Friday’s 10-week peak at 112.07 to 111.64 yesterday, subsequent rebound suggests the pullback has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for upmove from January’s 9-month trough at 104.79 to resume and yield re-test of said resistance, break would extend towards 112.30/40, however, overbought condition would keep price below 112.69 and yield correction later this week.
On the downside, only below 111.64 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 111.49, then 111.23.
Data out on Tuesday :
UK BRC retail sales, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, Swiss CPI, Italy Markit services PMI, GDP, France Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales.
U.S. building permits, redbook, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, new home sales, Federal budget.
AceTraderFx Mar 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Mar 2019 09:20 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.79
Although dollar’s retreat from yesterday’s fresh 10-week high at 112.14 (New York) suggests recent strong upmove has made a temporary top and minor range trading is in store before prospect of further gain, ‘loss of upward momentum’ is expected to prevent strong gain today and reckon 112.60/70 would cap upside.
On the downside, only a daily close below 111.64 would shift risk to the downside for stronger retracement to 111.13/23 before prospect of a rebound later this week.
Pay attention to the release of U.S. ADP employment at 13:15GMT.
Street forecast is a for a drop in the private sector to 189k from previous reading of 213k.
AceTraderFx Mar 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Mar 2019 09:20 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.77
Despite dollar’s brief break of Wednesday’s 111.62 low to 111.58 at Asian open, subsequent strong rebound suggests pullback from Tuesday’s 10-week high at 112.14 has possibly ended, above 111.92 would confirm and yield re-test of said res, break would extend upmove from January’s 9-month trough of 104.79 towards 112.40/45, but 112.60/67 may cap upside.
On the downside, only below 111.49 would indicate temporary top made, risks weakness to 111.23.
Pay attention to the release of U.S. jobless claims at 13:30. Street forecast is for an unchanged figure at 225K.
AceTraderFx Mar 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Mar 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.07
Dollar’s intra-day fall from 111.64 in Australia and then break of yesterday’s 111.48 low to 110.95 in Asia due to active safe-haven yen buying on selloff in Asian stocks suggests upmove from January’s 9-month trough of 104.79 has made a temporary top at Tuesday’s 10-week high at 112.14 and stronger retracement towards 110.66 would be seen but loss of momentum should keep price above 110.36.
On the upside, only above 111.86 would indicate pullback has possibly ended, risks gain towards 112.07/10.
Data to release on Friday :
Germany industrial orders, France current account, industrial output, trade balance, imports, exports, Italy industrial output, producer prices, UK NIESR GDP estimate.
Canada housing starts, capacity utilization, employment change, unemployment rate, and U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, building permits, housing starts.
AceTraderFx Mar 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Mar 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.34
Dollar’s intra-day rise above Monday’s 111.31 high to 111.46 in Asian morning suggests 1st leg of correction from last week’s 10-week peak at 112.14 (Tuesday) has possibly ended at 110.79 Friday and stronger gain towards 111.65/70 would be seen but 111.86/92 should cap upside and yield retreat.
On the downside, below 110.79 needed to extend said fall towards 110.36 but 110.10/16 may hold.
Pay attention to the release of US CPI and core CPI at 12:30GMT.
Street forecasts CPI mm n yy are 0.2% n 1.6% vs previous readings of 0.0% n 1.6% respectively.
AceTraderFx Mar 13: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Mar 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.36
Dollar’s retreat from yesterday’s 111.47 high to 111.11 in New York suggests recovery from last Friday’s 110.79 low has ended there and recent decline from last Tuesday’s 10-week high at 112.14 would resume after consolidation and extend towards 110.50/55 but 110.36/40 should hold and yield rebound.
On the upside, only above 111.47/48 would risk stronger gain to 111.86/92 but 112.14 should remain intact.
Pay attention to the release of US durable goods mm at 12:30GMT.
Street forecast is for a 0.5% drop vs previous reading of a 1.2% increase.
AceTraderFx Mar 14: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Mar 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.70
Despite yesterday’s fall from 111.47 to 111.01 in New York, intra-day cross-inspired rally above previous resistant at 111.48 suggests pullback from Mar’s 10-week high of 112.14 has possibly ended at 110.79 last Friday, above 111.86/92 would confirm and bring re-test of 112.14, where break would extend upmove from 104.79 (January) towards 112.69.
On the downside, only below 111.01 would prolong choppy trading and risk weakness towards 110.79/88.
There is a slew of US data to be released today including import and export prices but traders should keep an eye on jobless claims at 12:30GMT. Street forecast is for a slight increase to 225k from previous reading of 223k.
AceTraderFx Mar 15: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Mar 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.68
Although dollar’s intra-day retreat from 111.90 to 111.49 in Asia due to active safe-haven buying in jpy on renewed U.S./North Korea tension signals recent rise from last Friday’s 110.79 low has made a temporary top, subsequent rebound has retained bullishness and above 111.90/92 would bring re-test of Mar’s 10-week high of 112.14.
On the downside, only below 111.47 would indicate recovery has ended instead, risk weakness towards 111.01.
There is a slew of US data to be released today but one should be particular attention to the release of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 14:00GMT.
Street forecast is for an increase to 95.3 from previous reading of 93.8.