AceTraderFx Apr 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.94
Intra-day cross-inspired break above last Friday’s 111.82 high to a 1-month top of 111.95 confirms recent upmove from March’s 5-week low of 109.71 has resumed and would yield re-test of March’s 112.14 high, where break would extend medium term rise from January’s 9-month 104.79 trough towards 112.30/40 but 112.69 may hold.
On the downside, only below 111.57/58 would risk stronger retracement towards 111.28/29.
T.G.I.F., U.S. will release import n export prices and then University of Michigan consumer confidence.
We also have the second day of the 2-day IMF and World Bank meeting where a number of govt. finance officials will be speaking (please refer to our EI section for details).
AceTraderFx Apr 15: Daily Recommendations on Major USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.94
Although dollar’s retreat after intra-day 1-tick break of Friday’s high at 112.09 suggests consolidation is in store before a re-test of March’s 10-week peak at 112.14 is forthcoming and a break there would extend upmove from January’s 9-month trough at 104.79 towards 112.35 later, loss of momentum would prevent sharp move beyond there and risk would increase for a much-needed correction.
On the downside, only below 111.28 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.83 later this week
Data to be released today:
Swiss producer/import price, and U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Apr 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.92
Although dollar’s retreat after yesterday’s 1-tick break of Friday’s high at 112.09 suggests consolidation is in store before a re-test of March’s 10-week peak at 112.14 is forthcoming and a break there would extend upmove from January’s 9-month trough at 104.79 towards 112.35 later, loss of momentum would prevent sharp move beyond there and risk would increase for a much-needed correction.
On the downside, only below 111.28 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.83 later this week.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data starting with Redbook sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, mfg output, whilesales inventories, NAHB Housing Market index and Fed’s beige book.
We also have Dallas Fed President Kaplan (non-voter) who’s participating in a moderated question-and-answer session before a community forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
AceTraderFx Apr 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 112.06
Dollar’s intra-day rise to a near 4-month high at 112.17 at Asian open confirms medium term upmove from Jan’s 9-month trough of 104.79 has resumed, subsequent retreat would bring range trading before price extends to 112.50/55 but loss of momentum should cap price below 112.67.
On the downside, only below 111.58 would risk stronger retracement towards 111.28 before rebound.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Italy consumer prices, trade balance, global EU current account, trade balance, HICP, UK CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, trade balance, wholesale sales, and Canada CPI, trade balance, exports, imports.
AceTraderFx Apr 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.87
Although dollar has retreated after yesterday’s brief rise to a near 4-month high at 112.17 at Asian open and range trading would be seen before medium term upmove from January’s 9-month trough of 104.79 resumes and head towards 112.50/55 but reckon 112.67 would cap upside.
On the downside, only below 111.58 would risk stronger retracement towards 111.28, then possibly 111.00/05.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Germany producer prices, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Swiss trade balance, imports, exports, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, UK retail sales, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales.
U.S. initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey, retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, business inventories, leading indicator, and Canada ADP employment change, retail sales.
AceTraderFx Apr 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.87
Despite dollar’s intra-day sharp fall to 111.66 in Asian morning due to broad-based yen buying, subsequent rebound to 111.93 at European open suggests pullback from last Wed’s near 4-month peak at 112.17 has possibly ended, above 111.98/02 would bring re-test of 112.17, where break would extend medium term upmove from 104.79 (January) towards 112.35, then 112.60/67 later.
On the downside, only below 111.58 would risk stronger retracement towards 111.28, then 110.90/95.
Data out later:
Swiss market holiday, UK market holiday, Germany market holiday, Italy market holiday, France market holiday.
U.S. Chicago national activity index, existing home sales.
AceTraderFx Apr 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.81
Although dollar has retreated after resumption of upmove from Jan’s 9-month trough of 104.79 to a near 4-month high at 112.17 last Wed, yesterday’s rebound from 111.66 (Asia) to 112.03 in New York signals range trading would be seen before price extends towards 112.40/45 but loss of momentum should cap price below 112.67 and yield correction.
On the downside, only below 111.58/66 would risk stronger retracement towards 111.28, then 111.00/05.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
France business climate, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, Italy trade balance, Swiss investor sentiment, UK PSNB, PSNCR.
U.S. MBA mortgage application and Canada Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
AceTraderFx Apr 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.86
Although dollar’s retreat after yesterday’s rally to a 4-month peak at 112.39 in New York suggests medium term upmove from January’s 9-month trough of 104.79 has made a temporary top there and range trading would be seen before price head towards 112.67 later but loss of momentum should limit upside to 113.00.
On the downside, only below 111.66 would risk stronger retracement towards 111.58, then 111.28/33.
Ahead of Friday’s key U.S. GDP, we have the usual weekly jobless claims, durable goods order and KC Fed mfg index.
AceTraderFx Apr 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.69
Although yesterday’s decline to 111.38 in New York confirms recent upmove has made a temporary top at Wed’s 4-month peak at 112.39 and range trading is seen ahead of key U.S. GDP data, as long as daily sup at 110.85 holds, upside bias remains and above 112.00/05 signals pullback is over and may head towards 112.67 early next week.
Only below 110.85 signals long-awaited correction has occurred and risk would shift to downside for stronger retracement to 110.00/10 later.
Data to be released later:
France consumer confidence, UK BBA mortgage approvals, CBI trends survey, and U.S. GDP, PCE, University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx Apr 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.75
Despite dollar’s brief jump to 112.03 in New York on Fri due to robust U.S. GDP data, subsequent fall to 111.43 on soft U.S. PCE suggests further choppy trading below last Wed’s 4-month peak at 112.39 would be seen, intra-day rebound would bring range trading before another decline but 111.00/10 should hold.
On the upside, above 112.03 would bring re-test of 112.39, break, 112.60/67.
Below 110.85 would risk retracement towards 110.53/58.
On the U.S. data front, we have personal income, core PCE price index, PCE price index and Dallas Fed mfg business index.
AceTraderFx May 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.53
Despite the greenback’s fall to 111.05 in post-FOMC trading, subsequent rally to 111.61 in New York afternoon on Powell’s usd supportive comments and intra-day break of this resistance suggests decline from April’s 4-month peak at 112.39 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 111.90, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 112.05/10 and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 111.05 would revive bearishness for weakness to 110.85, then 110.53 before prospect of a much-needed correction.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Germany retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, UK Markit construction PMI, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, BoE interest rate decision, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, and U.S. initial jobless claims, labor costs, productivity, ISM New York index, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transport.
AceTraderFx May 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.49
Despite dollar’s resumption of decline from Apr’s 4-month high at 112.39 to a 2-1/2 week low at 111.05 Wed, subsequent rally to 111.61 in post-FOMC, then 111.66 yesterday suggests pullback has ended and further gain towards 112.10/17 would be seen but 112.39 should hold on first testing.
On the downside, only below 111.05 would risk weakness towards 110.85, break, 110.52/53 later.
Data to be released on Friday:
Swiss consumer confidence, CPI, UK Markit services PMI, EU HICP, producer prices.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI.
AceTraderFx May 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.74
Dollar’s intra-day gap-down open to 110.54 in New Zealand following U.S. President Trump’s tweet to threaten more trade tariffs on China on Sunday, and then lower 110.28 in Asia suggests recent decline from Apr’s 4-month peak at 112.39 has once again resumed, subsequent rebound would bring range trading before prospect of another fall towards 110.00/10 later.
On the upside, only above 111.05 would indicate temporary low made and risk retracement towards 111.35/37.
Data to be released later:
UK market holiday, Italy Markit s**ervices PMI, France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI and EU Markit services PMI, Sentix index, retail sales on Monday.
AceTraderFx May 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.65
Although dollar has rebounded after yesterday’s gap-down open and then lower to a 5-week bottom at 110.28 in Asian morning, as 110.95 (New York) has capped recovery, consolidation with downside bias remains for re-test of 110.28, break would extend recent decline from Apr’s 4-month peak at 112.39 towards 110.00 but 109.71 should hold.
On the upside, only above 111.05 would indicate temporary low made and risk retracement towards 111.35/37.
U.S. eco. calendar is very light with Redbook sales n JOLTS job openings being the only data due out. We have Fed Vice Chair Quarles speaking at Yale University 15:35GMT but the topic is on financial regulation.
AceTraderFx May 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.15
Dollar’s intra-day firm break below yesterday’s 110.17 low to a fresh 5-week bottom of 109.91 in Asian morning on selloff in Nikkei suggests recent decline from April’s 4-month peak at 112.39 remains in progress, subsequent rebound would bring range trading before prospect of another fall to 109.71 (March low) later, break, 109.55/60.
On the upside, only above 110.60 would indicate temporary low made instead and risk stronger retracement towards 110.85/95.
Eco. calendar in the euro area countries is pretty thin with Germn industrial output being the only data due out. ECB’s Draghi wil have dialogue with a group of youth at a student award event in FFT, so one can expect him to speak on something totally unrelated to ECB’s monetary policy right.
AceTraderFx May 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.67
Dollar’s initial break of yesterday’s low at 109.91 to a fresh 5-week low at 109.84 at Asian open on Trump’s comments, and then present fall after remarks from China Commerce Ministry suggests decline from Apr’s 4-month peak at 112.39 has resumed and further weakness towards 109.15/25 would be seen but loss of momentum should keep price above 108.73.
On the upside, only above 110.28 would indicate temporary low made, risk gain towards 110.60/70.
Data to be released on Thursday :
UK RICS housing price balance, U.S. trade balance, initial jobless claims, PPI, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, and Canada new housing price index, trade balance, exports, imports.
AceTraderFx May 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.67
Although dollar’s intra-day rally from 109.15 in Australia to 109.77 in Europe suggests recent decline from April’s 4-month peak at 112.39 has made a temporary low at yesterday’s 13-week bottom of 109.02 and stronger retracement towards 110.00/05 would be seen before prospect of retreat.
Only above 110.28/32 would risk gain towards 110.60 while below 109.02 would risk another fall to 108.73, then 108.50.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data (see EI for details) and we have S.F. Fed President Williams speaking at a conference in Zurich at 07:15GMT, then Kansas City Fed’s George will speaking at 16:45GMT.
AceTraderFx May 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.49
Despite dollar’s resumption of recent decline from Apr’s 4-month peak at 112.39 to a 3-month low of 109.02 on Mon, yesterday’s strong rebound to 109.77 suggests temporary low is in place and range trading would be seen before prospect of another fall but reckon 108.50 should hold, yield rebound.
On the upside, above 109.77 would extend marginal gain to 110.00/05 but 110.28/32 should remain intact.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Germany GDP, France CPI, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, EU employment, GDP.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, New York Fed manufacturing index, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, NAHB housing market index, and Canada CPI.
AceTraderFx May 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.47
Despite dollar’s fall from 109.70 in Europe to 109.16 (New York) yesterday, subsequent strong rebound to 109.68 suggests choppy trading above Monday’s 3-month low at 109.02 would continue, intra-day retreat would bring range trading before prospect of another rise but 110.05 should remain intact and yield another decline.
Only below 109.16 would risk re-test of 109.02, break may yield marginal weakness towards 108.84 before rebound.
U.S. will release weekly jobless claims, building permits, housing starts, Philly Fed survey all due out at 12:30GMT, so one can expected market reaction after this data dump. Also, pay attention to speeches by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and Fed Governor Brainard near New York mid-day.
AceTraderFx May 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.67
Despite dollar’s strong rebound from Mon’s 3-month trough of 109.02 to 110.03 in Asian morning today, subsequent fall to 109.55 at European open on renewed U.S.-China trade tension suggests recovery has ended and price would head to 109.15/16 after range trading.
On the upside, only a daily close above 110.05 would risk gain towards 110.28/32, then possibly 110.60/70.
On the data front, U.S. will release a slew of eco. data (please see our EI page for details). Also we have a number of Fed officials speaking in New York session later (see EI page for details).