AceTraderForex April 25: Daily Market Outlook on USD/JPY

AceTraderFx Oct 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Oct 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.27
Despite dollar’s rise from last Thursday’s 3-week low at 106.49 to 107.46 Monday, subsequent retreat to 106.82 in Europe yesterday signals correction has possibly ended, intra-day rebound would bring range trading before price head towards 106.49, where break would extend to 106.24.

On the upside, only above 107.46 would yield gain towards 107.89, then 108.17.

U.S. will release some 2nd-tier economic data starting with MBA mortgage applications, JOLTS jobs openings, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales. Pay attention to release of Sep’s FOMC minutes at 18:00GMT which is expected to move intra-day market. We also have Fed’s Powell making an opening speech at a “Fed Listens” event in Kansas City at 15:00GMT and also KC Fed’s George at the same venue.

AceTraderFx Oct 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Oct 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.63
Despite dollar’s retreat from yesterday’s high at 108.75 in Europe to 108.50 (NY), subsequent rebound to 108.70 in Asia today signals pullback has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for re-test of last Thur’s 2-1/2 month’s top at 108.93, where break would extend rise from Aug’s 33-month trough at 104.46 to 109.31.

On the downside, only below 108.26 would risk weakness to 108.00/04, then 107.76.

The economic calendar is relatively light today. U.S. will release its University of Michigan Consumer Confidence at 14:00GMT. Street forecast is for an unchanged reading of 96.0.

AceTraderFx Nov 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.98
Yesterday’s selloff to 107.93 in New York on active safe-haven yen buying due to renewed U.S-China trade concern, then 107.90 in Asia today suggests decline from Wed’s near 3-month peak at 109.28 would extend to 107.30/40 after consolidation, however, 106.94/04 should hold and yield correction.

On the upside, only above 108.50/59 would risk gain toward 108.75/80 before prospect of retreat.

U.S. will later release the blockbuster U.S. NFP, unemployment rate, average wage earnings, then Markit mfg PMI, construction spending, ISM mfg PMI. We have a number of Fed officials speaking during NY session after recent Fed blackout ahead of the FOMC, see EI section for details of their scheduled speeches.

AceTraderFx Nov 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.37
Dollar’s selloff from last Wednesday’s high at 109.28 to last Friday’s 2-week low at 107.90 suggests upmove from August’s 33-month bottom 104.46 has made a temporary top there, subsequent rebound would bring choppy trading before prospect of another fall, below 107.90 would extend to 107.40/45 but 107.04 may hold.

On the upside, only above 108.50 would risk gain towards 108.78, then possibly 109.28.

U.S. had moved its clock one hour back to winter time over the w/end. On the data front, we have ISM New York index, durable goods order and factory orders.

AceTraderFx Nov 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.82
Despite dollar’s retreat to 107.90 in Asia on Friday, subsequent rebound signals pullback from last Wednesday’s near 3-month high at 109.28 has ended and consolidation with upside bias for gain towards 109.06, break would bring re-test of said resistance later this week.

On the downside, only below 108.32 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk weakness to 107.90, then 107.76.

Data to be released later:
UK BRC retail sales, Markit services PMI, EU producer prices.
Canada trade balance, exports, imports, and U.S. redbook, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job openings.

AceTraderFx Nov 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.03
Despite dollar’s fall from last Wednesday’s high at 109.28 to Friday’s trough at 107.90, subsequent rebound to 109.24 yesterday suggests pullback has ended there and intra-day retreat would bring consolidation before another rise for re-test of said resistance, break would extend upmove from 104.46 towards 109.77 but 109.93 should hold and yield correction.

On the downside, only below 108.55 would signal a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.32.

There are a couple of Fed speakers today. Chicago Fed President Evans will speak at 13:00GMT and NY Fed President Williams will participate in a discussion at the “Future of Workforce” event at 14:30GMT.

AceTraderFx Nov 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.96
Despite dollar’s fall from Tuesday’s 109.24 high to 108.83 yesterday, then to 108.66 in Asia today, subsequent jump to 109.12 in Europe on positive U.S.-China trade news suggests pullback has ended and range trading would be seen before upmove from August’s 33-month trough at 104.46 resumes and extends to 109.65/70.

On the downside, only below 108.66 would risk weakness to 108.32, then 107.90.

Pay attention to the release of U.S. jobless claims at 13:30GMT. Street forecast is 215K vs previous reading of 218K.
Elsewhere, Dallas Fed President will participate in a question-and-answer session at the Dallas Regional Chamber of Commerce at 18:05GMT.

AceTraderFx Nov 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.28
Dollar’s firm break of October’s high at 109.28 to a 5-month top at 109.48 (New York) yesterday on rising U.S. yields signals upmove from August’s 33-month trough at 104.46 has resumed and gain towards 109.93 would be seen after consolidation but 110.00 should hold due to loss of upward momentum.

On the downside, only below 108.83 suggests temporary top has been made and risks weakness to 108.66, break, 108.32.

Data to be released on Friday :
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, France current account, industrial output, non-farm payrolls, trade balance, imports, exports.
Canada housing starts, building permits, employment change, unemployment rate, and U.S. University of Michigan sentiment, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales.

AceTraderFx Nov 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.98
Despite dollar’s rebound to 109.47 on Friday 109.47, subsequent retreat to 109.09 (New York), then lower to 108.92 (Europe) today suggests choppy trading below last Thursday’s 5-month top at 109.48 would continue and marginal weakness would be seen, however, reckon 108.66 would remain intact and yield prospect of another rise.

On the downside, only below 108.66 would risk stronger retracement to 108.32/35.

Data to be released later:
UK NIESR GDP estimate, GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, goods trade balance, Italy industrial output.
U.S. market holiday and Canada market holiday on Monday.

AceTraderFx Nov 12: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Nov 2019 09:53 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.25
Although dollar’s fall from Thursday’s 5-month high at 109.48 to 108.90 yesterday suggests upmove from Aug’s 33-month trough at 104.46 has made a temporary top, subsequent rebound has retained bullishness for marginal gain, however, 109.93 should remain intact and yield retreat.

On the downside, below 108.90 would risk stronger retracement towards 108.66 before prospect of another rise.

Pay attention to the release of German ZEW economic sentiment and current conditions at 10:00GMT. Street forecasts are -13.0 and -22.0 vs previous readings of -22.8 and -25.3 respectively.

AceTraderFx Nov 13: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Nov 2019 09:53 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.13
Despite dollar’s retreat from last Thursday’s 5-month high at 109.48 to 108.88 (Asia) today, subsequent rebound signals pullback has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias would be seen for re-test of 108.48, break would extend upmove from 104.46 (Aug) to 109.60/65 but 109.93 should hold and bring correction.

On the downside, only below 108.88 would risk weakness towards 108.66 which should hold on first testing.

Market focus is now on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before the congressional Joint Economic Committee at 16:00GMT. Traders should be on the lookout for comments on whether the central bank is looking at additional rate cuts after Trump’s comments late last night.
Also pay attention to the release of U.S. CPI mm and yy at 13:30GMT. Street forecasts are 0.3% and 1.7% vs previous readings of 0.0% and 1.7% respectively.

AceTraderFx Nov 14: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Nov 2019 09:53 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.69
Despite dollar’s rebound to 109.14 in Europe yesterday, subsequent fall to 108.66 in New York, then marginally lower to 108.64 in Asia today on U.S.-China trade concerns suggests decline from last Thursday’s 5-month high at 109.48 has resumed and marginal weakness is seen, however, 108.32 would hold and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 109.14 signals said pullback has ended and risks stronger gain to 109.29, then 109.48 again.

There are a slew of speakers from the Federal Reserve due to speak today. Pay particular attention to Fed Vice Chair Clarida’s speech on the Fed’s review of its monetary policy strategy at the Cato Institute’s 37th Annual Monetary Conference at 14:10GMT. U.S. will also release its jobless claims at 13:30GMT. Street forecast is 215k vs previous reading of 211k.

AceTraderFx Nov 15: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Nov 2019 09:50 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.50
Despite dollar’s retreat to 108.25 in New York afternoon on US-China trade concerns following FT report together with Trump impeachment inquiry news, subsequent rebound in Asia today on positive US-China trade comments from White House Adviser Kudlow suggests decline from November’s 5-month peak at 109.48 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 108.86, then 109.14, 109.29.

On the downside, only below 108.25 would revive bearishness for weakness towards daily support at 107.90 but 107.63 should hold and yield correction later.

There is a slew of data to be released from the U.S. today and one should pay particular attention to retail sales mm and retail sales ex-autos at 13:30GMT. Street forecasts are for an increase of 0.2% and 0.4% vs previous readings of -0.3% and -0.1% respectively.

AceTraderFx Nov 18: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Nov 2019 09:50 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.91
Dollar’s rebound from last Thur’s trough at 108.25 to 108.85 on Friday and then intra-day break of this level suggests decline from Nov’s 5-month high at 109.48 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 109.14 is seen, break would confirm this view and extend to 109.29 but 109.48 may hold on first testing.

On the downside, only below 108.62 signals recovery is over and risk stronger weakness to 108.49, 108.25.

Data to be released later today:
UK Rightmove house price and U.S. NAHB housing market index on Monday.

AceTraderFx Nov 19: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Nov 2019 09:50 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.62
Despite dollar’s strong rebound from last Thursday’s trough at 108.25 to 109.06 in Europe yesterday, subsequent retreat to 108.52 in New York, then 108.47 (Asia) today suggests choppy trading below November’s 5-month high at 109.48 would continue, below 108.25 would extend decline towards 107.90.

On the upside, only above 108.85/90 signals pullback over and risks re-test of 109.06, break, 109.29.

U.S. will release its building permits and housing starts data at 13:30GMT and New York Fed President John Williams will speak at the Capital Markets Conference in Washington at 14:00GMT.

AceTraderFx Nov 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.42
The greenback’s selloff from Monday’s high at 109.06 to 108.46 yesterday, then lower to 108.36 today suggests the recovery from last Thursday’s low at 108.25 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would signal decline from November’s 5-month peak at 109.48 has resumed and extend to 107.90 before prospect of correction due to over sold condition.

On the upside, only above 109.06 would revive bullishness for a stronger retracement to 109.29 but aforesaid 109.48 top should hold on first testing

Pay attention to the release of Fed’s FOMC minutes after the central bank cut its rates for the third time this year. Investors should look for disagreement amongst the members over the rate cut and what path with the bank take for its rate-setting policy in the future.

AceTraderFx Nov 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.58
Dollar’s retreat from Monday’s high at 109.06 to 108.29 in Asia today suggests recovery from last Thursday’s 108.25 bottom has ended and subsequent rebound would bring range trading before prospect of another fall, below 108.25 would extend decline from Nov’s 5-month peak at 109.48 towards 107.90 (Nov’s low).

On the upside, only above 108.84 would risk stronger retracement to 109.06, break 109.25/29.

Pay attention to the release of U.S. jobless claims at 13:30 and leading indicator at 15:00GMT. Street forecasts are 219k and -0.1% vs previous readings of 225k and -0.1% respectively.

AceTraderFx Nov 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.59
Dollar’s fall from Nov’s 5-month peak at 109.48 to 108.25 last Thursday suggests medium term upmove from Aug’s 33-month trough at 104.46 has made a temporary top, subsequent rebound to 109.06 on Monday, then retreat to 108.29 yesterday would yield range trading before prospect of another fall towards 107.90 (Nov low).

On the upside, only above 108.84 would risk stronger retracement to 109.06, break, 109.29.

Data release later:
Germany GDP, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, UK manufacturing PMI, services PMI.
Canada retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, and U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, University of Michigan sentiment index, KC Fed manufacturing index.

AceTraderFx Nov 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.82
Despite dollar’s retreat from last Monday’s high at 109.06 to 108.29 Thursday, subsequent rebound to 108.72 Friday, then higher today suggests choppy trading above Nov’s trough at 107.90 would continue, however, 109.25/29 should cap upside and bring another fall, below 108.48 would yield re-test 108.25 (reaction low), break, 107.90.

On the upside, only above 109.29 may risk 109.48 again which should hold on first testing.

In the absence of major economic data from U.S., focus will remain on US-China trade related headlines as they try to complete the “phase one” part of the deal.

AceTraderFx Nov 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.16
Despite dollar’s retreat from 109.20 in Asia yesterday to 108.88 (Europe), subsequent rebound suggests correction has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for re-test of Nov’s 5-month peak at 109.48, break would extend upmove from 104.46 (Aug) to 108.70/75 before prospect of correction due to over/bought condition

On the downside, only below 108.88 signals temporary top made and risks weakness to 108.48, break, 108.25/29.

Data to be released later:
UK BRC shop price index, Australia construction work done, Germany import prices, France consumer confidence, Italy Mfg business confidence, consumer confidence, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, GDP, GDP deflator, core PCE, PCE price index, initial jobless claims, personal income, personal spending, pending home sales, Fed’s Beige Book.