AceTraderForex April 25: Daily Market Outlook on USD/JPY

AceTraderFx Nov 13: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Nov 2019 09:53 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.13
Despite dollar’s retreat from last Thursday’s 5-month high at 109.48 to 108.88 (Asia) today, subsequent rebound signals pullback has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias would be seen for re-test of 108.48, break would extend upmove from 104.46 (Aug) to 109.60/65 but 109.93 should hold and bring correction.

On the downside, only below 108.88 would risk weakness towards 108.66 which should hold on first testing.

Market focus is now on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before the congressional Joint Economic Committee at 16:00GMT. Traders should be on the lookout for comments on whether the central bank is looking at additional rate cuts after Trump’s comments late last night.
Also pay attention to the release of U.S. CPI mm and yy at 13:30GMT. Street forecasts are 0.3% and 1.7% vs previous readings of 0.0% and 1.7% respectively.

AceTraderFx Nov 14: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Nov 2019 09:53 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.69
Despite dollar’s rebound to 109.14 in Europe yesterday, subsequent fall to 108.66 in New York, then marginally lower to 108.64 in Asia today on U.S.-China trade concerns suggests decline from last Thursday’s 5-month high at 109.48 has resumed and marginal weakness is seen, however, 108.32 would hold and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 109.14 signals said pullback has ended and risks stronger gain to 109.29, then 109.48 again.

There are a slew of speakers from the Federal Reserve due to speak today. Pay particular attention to Fed Vice Chair Clarida’s speech on the Fed’s review of its monetary policy strategy at the Cato Institute’s 37th Annual Monetary Conference at 14:10GMT. U.S. will also release its jobless claims at 13:30GMT. Street forecast is 215k vs previous reading of 211k.

AceTraderFx Nov 15: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Nov 2019 09:50 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.50
Despite dollar’s retreat to 108.25 in New York afternoon on US-China trade concerns following FT report together with Trump impeachment inquiry news, subsequent rebound in Asia today on positive US-China trade comments from White House Adviser Kudlow suggests decline from November’s 5-month peak at 109.48 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 108.86, then 109.14, 109.29.

On the downside, only below 108.25 would revive bearishness for weakness towards daily support at 107.90 but 107.63 should hold and yield correction later.

There is a slew of data to be released from the U.S. today and one should pay particular attention to retail sales mm and retail sales ex-autos at 13:30GMT. Street forecasts are for an increase of 0.2% and 0.4% vs previous readings of -0.3% and -0.1% respectively.

AceTraderFx Nov 18: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Nov 2019 09:50 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.91
Dollar’s rebound from last Thur’s trough at 108.25 to 108.85 on Friday and then intra-day break of this level suggests decline from Nov’s 5-month high at 109.48 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 109.14 is seen, break would confirm this view and extend to 109.29 but 109.48 may hold on first testing.

On the downside, only below 108.62 signals recovery is over and risk stronger weakness to 108.49, 108.25.

Data to be released later today:
UK Rightmove house price and U.S. NAHB housing market index on Monday.

AceTraderFx Nov 19: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Nov 2019 09:50 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.62
Despite dollar’s strong rebound from last Thursday’s trough at 108.25 to 109.06 in Europe yesterday, subsequent retreat to 108.52 in New York, then 108.47 (Asia) today suggests choppy trading below November’s 5-month high at 109.48 would continue, below 108.25 would extend decline towards 107.90.

On the upside, only above 108.85/90 signals pullback over and risks re-test of 109.06, break, 109.29.

U.S. will release its building permits and housing starts data at 13:30GMT and New York Fed President John Williams will speak at the Capital Markets Conference in Washington at 14:00GMT.

AceTraderFx Nov 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.42
The greenback’s selloff from Monday’s high at 109.06 to 108.46 yesterday, then lower to 108.36 today suggests the recovery from last Thursday’s low at 108.25 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would signal decline from November’s 5-month peak at 109.48 has resumed and extend to 107.90 before prospect of correction due to over sold condition.

On the upside, only above 109.06 would revive bullishness for a stronger retracement to 109.29 but aforesaid 109.48 top should hold on first testing

Pay attention to the release of Fed’s FOMC minutes after the central bank cut its rates for the third time this year. Investors should look for disagreement amongst the members over the rate cut and what path with the bank take for its rate-setting policy in the future.

AceTraderFx Nov 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.58
Dollar’s retreat from Monday’s high at 109.06 to 108.29 in Asia today suggests recovery from last Thursday’s 108.25 bottom has ended and subsequent rebound would bring range trading before prospect of another fall, below 108.25 would extend decline from Nov’s 5-month peak at 109.48 towards 107.90 (Nov’s low).

On the upside, only above 108.84 would risk stronger retracement to 109.06, break 109.25/29.

Pay attention to the release of U.S. jobless claims at 13:30 and leading indicator at 15:00GMT. Street forecasts are 219k and -0.1% vs previous readings of 225k and -0.1% respectively.

AceTraderFx Nov 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.59
Dollar’s fall from Nov’s 5-month peak at 109.48 to 108.25 last Thursday suggests medium term upmove from Aug’s 33-month trough at 104.46 has made a temporary top, subsequent rebound to 109.06 on Monday, then retreat to 108.29 yesterday would yield range trading before prospect of another fall towards 107.90 (Nov low).

On the upside, only above 108.84 would risk stronger retracement to 109.06, break, 109.29.

Data release later:
Germany GDP, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, UK manufacturing PMI, services PMI.
Canada retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, and U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, University of Michigan sentiment index, KC Fed manufacturing index.

AceTraderFx Nov 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.82
Despite dollar’s retreat from last Monday’s high at 109.06 to 108.29 Thursday, subsequent rebound to 108.72 Friday, then higher today suggests choppy trading above Nov’s trough at 107.90 would continue, however, 109.25/29 should cap upside and bring another fall, below 108.48 would yield re-test 108.25 (reaction low), break, 107.90.

On the upside, only above 109.29 may risk 109.48 again which should hold on first testing.

In the absence of major economic data from U.S., focus will remain on US-China trade related headlines as they try to complete the “phase one” part of the deal.

AceTraderFx Nov 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.16
Despite dollar’s retreat from 109.20 in Asia yesterday to 108.88 (Europe), subsequent rebound suggests correction has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for re-test of Nov’s 5-month peak at 109.48, break would extend upmove from 104.46 (Aug) to 108.70/75 before prospect of correction due to over/bought condition

On the downside, only below 108.88 signals temporary top made and risks weakness to 108.48, break, 108.25/29.

Data to be released later:
UK BRC shop price index, Australia construction work done, Germany import prices, France consumer confidence, Italy Mfg business confidence, consumer confidence, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, GDP, GDP deflator, core PCE, PCE price index, initial jobless claims, personal income, personal spending, pending home sales, Fed’s Beige Book.

AceTraderFx Nov 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.46
Although dollar’s break of Nov’s previous high at 109.48 to near-6-month top at 109.60 in New York yesterday suggests upmove from Aug’s 33-month trough at 104.46 has resumed, intra-day retreat on renewed U.S.-China trade concern would bring consolidation before price heads to 109.90/93 but 110.30/40 should hold due to loss momentum.

On the downside, only below 109.11 (Wed European low) would indicate temporary top made and risk weakness toward 108.88/90, break, 108.43/48.

U.S. markets will be closed today for Thanksgiving holiday, hence no data will be out today.

AceTraderFx Nov 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Nov 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.50
Despite dollar’s retreat from Wednesday’s near 6-month high at 109.60 in New York, yesterday’s rebound from 109.34 (AUS) to 109.59 in Asia today suggests correction has ended and upmove from Aug’s 33-month trough at 104.46 would resume and head towards 109.93 after consolidation but 110.20/30 should hold due to loss of momentum.

On the downside, only below 109.07/11 would indicate temporary top made, risk weakness to 108.83/88.

Data out later :
UK GfK consumer confidence, Germany retail sales, unemployment change, unemployment rate, France consumer spending, GDP, CPI, producer prices, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy unemployment rate, CPI, GDP, EU HICP, core HICP, unemployment rate, and Canada GDP, producer prices, budget balance.

AceTraderFx Dec 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.63
Dollar’s intra-day break of Fri’s top at 109.66 to a fresh near 6-month high of 109.72 in Asia suggests upmove from Aug’s 33-month trough at 104.46 has resumed, subsequent retreat would yield consolidation before prospect of another rise to 109.90/93 but 110.35/37 should cap upside due to loss of momentum.

On the downside, only below 109.34 signals temporary top made and risks weakness to 109.11, break, 108.88.

Pay attention to the release of U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI at 15:00GMT. Street forecast is for an uptick to 49.4 from previous reading of 48.3.

AceTraderFx Dec 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.09
Dollar’s retreat from a 6-month high at 109.72 to 108.93 in New York yesterday suggests upmove from Aug’s 33-month trough at 104.46 has made a temporary top there, subsequent rebound would bring choppy trading before prospect of another fall, below 108.88/93 would extend to 108.48 but 108.25 should hold today due to oversold condition.

On the upside, only above 109.41 signals correction has ended and may risk re-test of 109.72.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK BRC retail sales, Markit construction PMI, Australia current account, RBA interest rate decision, Swiss CPI, France budget balance, EU producer prices.
U.S. redbook, ISM New York index.

AceTraderFx Dec 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.48
Despite dollar’s erratic rise from Aug’s 33-month trough at 104.46 to 6-month high of 109.72 Mon, subsequent selloff to 108.49 in New York yesterday, then lower today on U.S.-China trade concerns suggests weakness to 108.25/29 would be seen after consolidation but 107.90 may hold due to loss of downward momentum.

On the upside, only above 108.93 signals correction over and risks gain to 109.20, break, 109.41.

There is a slew of U.S. data to be released today but pay particular attention to ADP employment at 13:15GMT and ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 15:00GMT . Street forecasts are 140k and 54.5 vs previous readings of 125k and 54.7 respectively.

AceTraderFx Dec 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.90
Despite dollar’s retreat to 108.44 in Asia yesterday, subsequent rebound to 108.96 in New York suggests recent decline from Mon’s 6-month peak at 119.72 has made a temporary low and range trading would be seen before prospect of another fall, below 108.44 would extend to 108.10/20 but Nov’s 107.90 bottom should remain intact.

On the upside, only above 109.20 would risk stronger gain to 109.41, break, 109.60/70.

Pay attention to U.S. jobless claims (13:30GMT) and factory orders (15:00GMT). Street forecasts are 215k and 0.3% vs previous readings of 213k and -0.6% respectively.

AceTraderFx Dec 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.62
Despite dollar’s rebound from Wed’s trough at 108.44 to 108.99 yesterday, subsequent retreat to 108.61 today suggests correction has ended and decline from Mon’s 6-month high at 109.72 would resume and extend to 108.25/29, however, loss of momentum should keep price above 107.90.

On the upside, only above 108.99 would risk gain to 109.20, break, 109.41 later.

T.G.I.F. for Asian traders but Euroepan n N. American players are bracing themselves for release of U.S. non-farm payrolls, average earnings, unemployment at 13:00GMT, then University of Michigan consumer confidence, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales at 15:00GMT.

AceTraderFx Dec 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.53

Dollar’s intra-day sideways move after retreat from 108.91 to 108.53 in New York last Fri due to falling US yields suggests correction from Wed’s trough at 108.44 has ended at 108.99 Thur and re-test of said support is seen after consolidation, break would extend decline from Dec’s high at 109.72 to 108.25/29 but 107.90 should hold due to loss of momentum.

On the upside, only above 108.91/99 signals temporary low made and risks gain to 109.20, break, 109.41.

Data to be released later:
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, EU Sentix index and Canada leading index, housing starts, building permits.

AceTraderFx Dec 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.64

Although dollar has recovered after yesterday’s re-test of last Wed’s low at 108.44 and consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen, however, reckon 108.91/99 would remain intact and yield prospect of another decline, below 108.44 would extend fall from Dec’s 6-month 109.72 high towards 108.25, then 107.90 (Nov bottom).

On the upside, only above 108.99 would risk stronger retracement to 109.20, break, 109.41/45.

In the absence of major economic data from the U.S. today, investors are looking for more clarity on whether U.S. would impose the increased tariffs on Chinese goods, starting Dec. 15 or if the two countries can agree on a limited trade deal.

AceTraderFx Dec 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.71
Although dollar’s choppy swings following fall from Dec’s 6-month high at 109.72 to 108.44 last Wednesday would continue, as said move signals upmove from Aug’s 33-month trough at 104.46 has made a temporary top there and reckon resistance at 108.99 would hold and yield another decline, below 108.44 would extend decline to 108.25, then 107.90.

On the upside, only above 108.99 suggests pullback over and risks stronger gain to 109.20, break, 109.41 later.

Today’s focus is on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision at 19:00GMT. Although it is widely expected that the central bank will keep its rate unchanged at 1.75%, one should pay attention to Chairman Powell’s press conference at 19:30GMT and look for hints on whether any more rate cuts are expected or not.