AceTraderFx Dec 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Dec 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.09
Dollar’s retreat from a 6-month high at 109.72 to 108.93 in New York yesterday suggests upmove from Aug’s 33-month trough at 104.46 has made a temporary top there, subsequent rebound would bring choppy trading before prospect of another fall, below 108.88/93 would extend to 108.48 but 108.25 should hold today due to oversold condition.
On the upside, only above 109.41 signals correction has ended and may risk re-test of 109.72.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK BRC retail sales, Markit construction PMI, Australia current account, RBA interest rate decision, Swiss CPI, France budget balance, EU producer prices.
U.S. redbook, ISM New York index.
AceTraderFx Dec 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Dec 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.48
Despite dollar’s erratic rise from Aug’s 33-month trough at 104.46 to 6-month high of 109.72 Mon, subsequent selloff to 108.49 in New York yesterday, then lower today on U.S.-China trade concerns suggests weakness to 108.25/29 would be seen after consolidation but 107.90 may hold due to loss of downward momentum.
On the upside, only above 108.93 signals correction over and risks gain to 109.20, break, 109.41.
There is a slew of U.S. data to be released today but pay particular attention to ADP employment at 13:15GMT and ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 15:00GMT . Street forecasts are 140k and 54.5 vs previous readings of 125k and 54.7 respectively.
AceTraderFx Dec 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Dec 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.90
Despite dollar’s retreat to 108.44 in Asia yesterday, subsequent rebound to 108.96 in New York suggests recent decline from Mon’s 6-month peak at 119.72 has made a temporary low and range trading would be seen before prospect of another fall, below 108.44 would extend to 108.10/20 but Nov’s 107.90 bottom should remain intact.
On the upside, only above 109.20 would risk stronger gain to 109.41, break, 109.60/70.
Pay attention to U.S. jobless claims (13:30GMT) and factory orders (15:00GMT). Street forecasts are 215k and 0.3% vs previous readings of 213k and -0.6% respectively.
AceTraderFx Dec 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Dec 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.62
Despite dollar’s rebound from Wed’s trough at 108.44 to 108.99 yesterday, subsequent retreat to 108.61 today suggests correction has ended and decline from Mon’s 6-month high at 109.72 would resume and extend to 108.25/29, however, loss of momentum should keep price above 107.90.
On the upside, only above 108.99 would risk gain to 109.20, break, 109.41 later.
T.G.I.F. for Asian traders but Euroepan n N. American players are bracing themselves for release of U.S. non-farm payrolls, average earnings, unemployment at 13:00GMT, then University of Michigan consumer confidence, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales at 15:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Dec 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Dec 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.53
Dollar’s intra-day sideways move after retreat from 108.91 to 108.53 in New York last Fri due to falling US yields suggests correction from Wed’s trough at 108.44 has ended at 108.99 Thur and re-test of said support is seen after consolidation, break would extend decline from Dec’s high at 109.72 to 108.25/29 but 107.90 should hold due to loss of momentum.
On the upside, only above 108.91/99 signals temporary low made and risks gain to 109.20, break, 109.41.
Data to be released later:
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, EU Sentix index and Canada leading index, housing starts, building permits.
AceTraderFx Dec 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Dec 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.64
Although dollar has recovered after yesterday’s re-test of last Wed’s low at 108.44 and consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen, however, reckon 108.91/99 would remain intact and yield prospect of another decline, below 108.44 would extend fall from Dec’s 6-month 109.72 high towards 108.25, then 107.90 (Nov bottom).
On the upside, only above 108.99 would risk stronger retracement to 109.20, break, 109.41/45.
In the absence of major economic data from the U.S. today, investors are looking for more clarity on whether U.S. would impose the increased tariffs on Chinese goods, starting Dec. 15 or if the two countries can agree on a limited trade deal.
AceTraderFx Dec 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Dec 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.71
Although dollar’s choppy swings following fall from Dec’s 6-month high at 109.72 to 108.44 last Wednesday would continue, as said move signals upmove from Aug’s 33-month trough at 104.46 has made a temporary top there and reckon resistance at 108.99 would hold and yield another decline, below 108.44 would extend decline to 108.25, then 107.90.
On the upside, only above 108.99 suggests pullback over and risks stronger gain to 109.20, break, 109.41 later.
Today’s focus is on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision at 19:00GMT. Although it is widely expected that the central bank will keep its rate unchanged at 1.75%, one should pay attention to Chairman Powell’s press conference at 19:30GMT and look for hints on whether any more rate cuts are expected or not.
AceTraderFx Dec 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Dec 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.63
Despite dollar’s retreat from 108.85 in Australia to 108.47 in post-FOMC trading, subsequent rebound suggests choppy trading above last Wednesday’s trough at 108.44 would continue, however, reckon resistance at 108.85 would remain intact and bring another fall later, below 108.44 would extend decline from Dec’s 6-month high at 109.72 to 108.25 later.
On the upside, only above 108.99 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 109.20 but 109.41 (previous support) would hold.
Pay attention to the release of U.S. jobless claims at 13:30GMT. Street forecast is for an increase to 213k from previous reading of 203k.
AceTraderFx Dec 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Dec 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.62
Dollar’s intra-day rally to a 1-week high at 109.66 suggests a re-test of Dec’s 6-month high at 109.72 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend upmove from Aug’s 33-month trough at 104.46 to 109.93 but 110.44 may hold due to overbought condition.
On the downside, only below 108.94 signals temporary top made and stronger retracement to 108.69, break 108.44.
There is a slew of data to be released from U.S. today but one should pay particular attention to retail sales and retail sales ex-autos at 13:30GMT. Street forecasts are 0.5% and 0.4% vs previous readings of 0.3% and 0.2% respectively.
AceTraderFx Dec 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Dec 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.44
Despite the greenback’s rise to 109.70 on Friday after U.S. and China agreed to a “phase-one” of the trade deal, subsequent retreat to 109.21 on profit-taking suggests further choppy trading below December’s 6-month peak at 109.72 would continue with downside bias and below 109.21 would extend weakness to 108.94, then 108.75, however, 108.44 (reaction low) would hold this week and yield rebound.
On the upside, only above 109.70/72 would revive bullishness for further gain to 110.05/10, then 110.30/40 before prospect of correction.
Pay attention to the release of U.S. manufacturing and services PMIs at 14:45GMT. Street forecasts are 52.5 and 51.8 vs previous readings of 52.6 and 51.6 respectively.
AceTraderFx Dec 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Dec 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.60
Despite dollar’s retreat from last Fri’s high at 109.70 to 109.21, subsequent rebound to 109.67 yesterday suggests pullback has ended the same day and consolidation with upside bias remains for re-test of Dec’s 6-month top at 109.72, break would extend upmove from Aug’s 104.46 bottom to 109.93/00 but 110.10 may hold due to loss of momentum.
On the downside, only below 109.21 would risk weakness to 108.94, then, 108.69.
There is a slew of housing data to be released today but pay attention to industrial production mm at 14:15GMT. Street forecast is for an increase of 0.8% vs previous reading of a 0.8% drop.
AceTraderFx Dec 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Dec 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.40
Dollar’s daily sideways swings following retreat from last Friday’s 109.70 high to 109.21 in New York suggests further choppy trading below Dec’s 6-month peak at 109.72 would continue and below said sup would bring stronger retrace of recent upmove from Dec’s 108.44 bottom to 108.94/99.
On the upside, above 109.70/72 needed to extend medium term rise from Aug’s 33-month trough at 104.46 to 109.90/00, then possibly 110.20.
In the absence of major economic data from U.S., pay attention to comments from Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans, who will participate in a question-an-answer session before an Economic Club of Indiana at 17:40GMT.
AceTraderFx Dec 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Dec 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.58
Although dollar’s choppy trading following retreat from last Fri’s 109.70 high to 109.21 would continue and expect consolidation before re-test of Dec’s 6-month top at 109.72, break would extend upmove from Aug’s 33-month trough at 104.46 to 109.93, then 110.10/20 before prospect of correction.
On the downside, only below 109.21/26 would risk stronger retracement to 108.94/99.
Pay attention to Bank of Japan’s rate decision (circa 03:00GMT) and although no change in policy is expected, investors should pay attention to Governor Kuroda’s press conference at 06:00GMT to see if he gives any hints on whether the central bank will look to ease its policy further or not
AceTraderFx Dec 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Dec 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.37
Although price has recovered after yesterday’s selloff on falling U.S. yields and break of previous support at 109.21 to 109.19 and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals near term decline from last Friday’s high at 109.70 has resumed, downside bias remains and below 109.19 would yield stronger retracement to 108.94, then 108.50/60.
On the upside, only a daily close above 109.70/72 would indicate Medium Term upmove from 2019 trough at 104.46 (August) has resumed instead and extend to 109.93/95 early next week.
There is a slew of data out from the U.S. today but one should pay particular attention to the release of final GDP figures at 13:30GMT. Street forecasts for GDP Q3 and GDP deflator are 2.1% and 1.8% vs previous readings of 2.1% and 1.7% respectively.
AceTraderFx Dec 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Dec 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.38
Despite dollar’s rebound from 109.19 last Thursday to 109.53 yesterday, subsequent retreat suggests choppy trading below Dec’s 6-month high at 109.72 would continue, however, reckon said support would hold and yield prospect of another rise, above 109.70/72 would extend upmove from Aug’s 33-month trough at 104.46 to 109.93, then 110.00/10 before correction.
On the downside, only below 108.94 would risk stronger retracement to 108.44/46.
AceTraderFx Dec 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Dec 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.49
Although dollar’s rally from last Thursday’s trough at 109.19 to 109.68 yesterday suggests early correction from 109.70 has ended, intra-day retreat would bring range trading before price heads toward Dec’s 6-month high at 109.72, above would extend upmove from Aug’s 33-month’s 104.46 low to 110.00/10 but 110.20 may hold today.
On the downside, only below 109.19 signals temporary top made and risks weakness to 108.94, then 108.44.
AceTraderFx Dec 30 : Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Dec 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.14
Despite dollar’s rebound to 109.68 last Thursday, subsequent retreat and intra-day break of previous support at 109.19 suggests further choppy trading below Dec’s 6-month peak at 109.72 would continue and would head towards 108.94, then possibly 108.44/46 before prospect of rebound.
On the upside, only above 109.39/44 signals pullback has ended and risks gain to 109.58, then re-test of 109.72.
Pay attention to the release of Chicago PMI at 14:45GMT. Street forecast is for an increase to 47.9 from previous reading of 46.3.
AceTraderFx Dec 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Dec 2019 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.68
Although dollar’s selloff and break of previous support at 109.19 to 108.76 in New York yesterday, then lower today suggests further choppy trading below Dec’s 6-month high at 109.72 would continue and weakness to 108.44/46 would be seen after consolidation, break needed to extend decline to 108.25/29.
On the upside, only above 109.07 signals pullback over and risks gain towards 109.22 then 109.39/44.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today, pay attention to U.S. consumer confidence at 15:00GMT. Street forecast is for an uptick to 128.2 from previous reading of 125.5.
AceTraderFx Jan 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Jan 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.80
Despite dollar’s selloff from last Thursday’s 109.68 high to 108.48 on Tuesday, subsequent rebound suggests choppy trading above Dec’s 108.44 low would be seen before prospect of another fall, below said support would extend decline from Dec’s 6-month peak at 109.72 to 108.25/29, then 107.90 (Nov’s bottom).
On the upside, only above 108.94/99 would risk stronger retracement to 109.19/22.
Pay attention to the release of U.S. jobless claims at 13:30GMT. Street forecast is for an increase to 225K from previous reading of 222K.
AceTraderFx Jan 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Jan 2020 03:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.94
Dollar’s break of December’s trough at 108.44 to 108.22 yesterday, then lower today on active safe-haven jpy buying after U.S. missile attack on Iraq suggests decline from December’s 6-month high at 109.72 has resumed and re-test of November’s 107.90 low would be seen after consolidation, break would extend towards 107.71, then 107.40/50 before prospect of correction.
On the upside, only above 108.44/48 would risk stronger retracement to 108.62, then possibly 108.86.
Pay attention to the US ISM manufacturing PMI at 15:00GMT. Street forecast is for an increase to 49.0 from previous reading of 48.1. Investors should also keep an eye out on the release of FOMC minutes at 19:00GMT.