AceTraderFx Aug 05 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 05 Aug 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.77
Despite dollar’s retreat from Monday’s 106.47 high to 105.52 in Asia today, subsequent rebound suggests pullback has possibly ended, above 106.19 needed to confirm and yield re-test of 106.47, break would extend near term upmove from last Friday’s 4-1/2 month low at 104.19 to 106.70/80.
On the downside, only below 105.29/33 would risk weakness to 104.95/00.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia AIG construction index, New Zealand unemployment rate, labour cost index, employment change, Japan Jibun Bank services PMI, China Caixin services PMI.
Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales, UK Markit services PMI.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, ADP national employment, trade balance, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and Canada trade balance, exports, imports.
AceTraderFx Aug 06 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 06 Aug 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.56
Although dollar’s retreat from this week’s high at 106.47 (Monday) to 105.33 in New York yesterday suggests first leg of correction from last Friday’s 4-1/2 month bottom at 104.19 has ended, as long as 105.29/33 holds, consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 105.87, then 106.19, break needed to bring re-test of 106.47.
On the downside, only below 105.29/33 would risk weakness to 105.05/10 before prospect of rebound.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Germany industrial orders, UK BoE interest rate decision, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, Markit construction PMI, Italy industrial output, and U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims.
AceTraderFx Aug 07 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 07 Aug 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.62
Dollar’s rebound from yesterday’s low at 105.31 to 105.64 in New York, then intra-day break above this level suggests near term decline from Monday’s 106.47 peak has possible ended there and further gain to 105.87 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend to 106.19, break, 106.47 again.
On the downside, below 105.29/31 would risk weakness to 105.05/10 before prospect of another bounce.
All eyes are on U.S. jobs data due out at 12:30GMT, on NFP, street forecast is for an increase of 1.6 million vs prev. reading of 4.8 million whilst unemployment rate is estimated to be 10.5% vs last reading of 11.1%.
AceTraderFx Aug10 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 10 Aug 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.96
As dollar has rebounded after retreat from 106.05 in post-NFP New York Friday to 105.73 in Asia today, suggesting pullback from last Monday’s 106.47 high has possibly ended at 105.31 Thursday, above 106.19 would confirm and bring re-test of 106.47, where break would extend upmove from July’s 4-1/2 month bottom at 104.19 to 106.65, then 106.85/90.
On the downside, only below 105.49 would risk stronger retracement to 105.31/33.
Data out today :
New Zealand ANZ business outlook, ANZ own activity, China PPI, CPI.
Swiss unemployment rate, EU Sentix index.
Canada leading index and U.S. JOLTS job openings on Monday.
AceTraderFx Aug 11 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 11 Aug 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.11
Despite dollar’s retreat from August’s high at 106.47 to 105.31 last Thursday, subsequent erratic rise and intra-day break of 106.19 resistance suggests pullback has ended and above 106.47 would extend upmove from July’s 4-1/2 month bottom at 104.19 to 106.65/70, however, loss of momentum may cap price below 106.90/00 today.
On the downside, only below 105.49/52 would risk weakness to 105.31/33.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand retail sales, Japan current account, trade balance, Economy Watchers outlook, Economy Watchers current, machine tool orders, Australia NAB business condition, NAB business confidence.
UK BRC retail sales, claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, , Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU ZEW survey expectations.
Canada housing starts, and U.S. PPI, core PPI, redbook.
AceTraderFx Aug 12 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 12 Aug 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.80
Dollar’s rally from 105.94 in New York yesterday and then break of previous August’s 106.47 high to 106.68 on renewed usd’s strength, then 106.81 today confirms upmove from July’s 4-1/2 month bottom at 104.19 has once again resumed and further headway to 107.28/36 would be seen after consolidation, but 107.53 should hold due to loss of momentum.
On the downside, only below 106.44/45 would risk stronger retracement to 106.00/05.
There is a slew of economic data to be released from the U.S. today but one should pay particular attention to CPI mm and yy at 12:30GMT. Street forecasts are 0.3% and 0.8% vs previous readings of 0.6% and 0.6% respectively.
AceTraderFx Aug 13 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 13 Aug 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.63
Despite dollar’s resumption of upmove from July’s 4-1/2 month low at 104.19 to a near 3-week high at 107.01 in New York yesterday, intra-day retreat suggests temporary top is in place and stronger retracement to 106.45/47 would be seen before prospect of another rise, above 107.01
would extend to 107.28 but 107.53 should hold.
On the downside, only below 106.19/23 would risk weakness to 105.94, break, 105.69/73.
There is a slew of U.S. data to be released but one should pay particular attention to jobless claims at 12:30GMT. Street forecast is 1,120k, down from previous reading of 1,186k.
AceTraderFx Aug 14 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 14 Aug 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.78
Despite dollar’s resumption of upmove from July’s 4-1/2 month trough at 104.19 to a near 3-week high at 107.04 in New York yesterday, subsequent retreat suggests temporary top possibly made and choppy sideways swings would be seen before heading to 107.48/53, however, loss of momentum should cap price below 107.78 today.
On the downside, only below 106.47/57 would risk stronger retracement to 106.19/23.
There is a slew of data to be released from the U.S. today but one should pay particular attention to U.S. retail sales and retail sales ex-autos at 12:30GMT.
Street forecasts are 1.9% and 1.3% vs previous readings of 7.5% and 7.3% respectively.
AceTraderFx Aug 17 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 17 Aug 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.47
Despite dollar’s resumption of upmove from July’s 4-1/2 month trough at 104.19 to a near 3-week peak at 107.04 last Thursday, Friday’s selloff to 106.44 in New York, then 106.41 today suggests temporary top is in place and stronger retracement to 106.19/24 would be seen before prospect of another rise, however, reckon 107.28 should hold and yield retreat.
On the downside, below 105.94 would risk weakness to 105.71, then 105.31/33.
Data to be released later:
Japan GDP, industrial output, capacity utilization.
UK Rightmove house .
U.S. NY Fed manufacturing, NAHB housing index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Aug 19 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 19 Aug 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.41
Dollar’s resumption of decline from last Thursday’s 107.04 peak to a 2-week low at 105.11 at Asian open today suggests early correction from July’s 4-1/2 month trough at 104.19 has possibly ended and subsequent rebound would bring choppy sideways swings before heading to 104.73/78.
On the upside, only above 105.95 would risk gain to 106.06, then 106.30/40.
Data to be released later :
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output prices, DCLG house price index, EU current account, HICP, core HICP, Canada CPI, core CPI.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, FOMC meeting minutes.
AceTraderFx Aug 20 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 20 Aug 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.03
Despite dollar’s selloff from last Thursday’s near 3-week high at 107.04 to a 2-week bottom at 105.11, subsequent strong rebound on usd’s broad-based rally after release of FOMC minutes to 106.21 in Asia today suggests a temporary low has been made and further gain to 106.44/47 would be seen after consolidation but 106.65 may hold.
On the downside, only below 105.60 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 105.29.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Germany producer prices, Swiss trade balance, industrial production, exports, imports, EU construction output.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, leading index change, and Canada ADP employment change.
AceTraderFx Aug 21 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 21 Aug 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.45
Despite dollar’s selloff from August’s near 3-week high at 107.04 to 105.11 on Wednesday, subsequent rebound to 106.21 yesterday signals temporary bottom has been made and intra-day retreat would bring choppy sideways swings before prospect of another gain, above 106.04 would yield 106.21, then 106.60/65.
On the downside, only below 105.29 would risk re-test of 105.11 but oversold condition should keep price above 104.73/78.
Pay attention to the release of U.S. manufacturing and services PMIs at 13:45GMT. Street forecasts are 51.9 and 51.0 vs previous readings of 50.9 and 50.0 respectively.
AceTraderFx Aug 24 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 24 Aug 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.85
Despite dollar’s retreat from last Thursday’s high at 106.21 to 105.45 on Friday, subsequent rebound to 106.07 in New York suggests choppy trading above Wednesday’s low at 105.11 would continue and intra-day sideways swings would bring consolidation before re-test of 106.21, break would head to 106.44 but 106.65/68 may hold.
On the downside, only below 105.45 would risk weakness to 105.29, then possibly 105.11/15 later.
On the data front, the only data due out from the U.S. is Chicago Fed National Activity for July.
AceTraderFx Aug 25 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 25 Aug 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.18
Dollar’s rise from 105.45 to 106.07 last Friday, then intra-day break of said resistance suggests pullback from Thursday’s 106.21 high has ended and upmove from August’s trough at 105.11 would resume after consolidation and head to 106.60/65 before prospect of retreat later.
On the downside, only below 105.70 would risk weakness to 105.45, break may bring re-test of 105.11.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Germany GDP, Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, Swiss non-farm payrolls, UK CBI distributive trades.
U.S. building permits, redbook, monthly home price index, CaseShiller home price index, consumer confidence new home sales, Richmond Fed manufacturing index.
AceTraderFx Aug 26 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 26Aug 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.26
Despite dollar’s selloff from August’s near 3-week high at 107.04 to 105.11 last Wednesday, subsequent rise to 106.57 in New York yesterday suggests pullback has ended and intra-day retreat would bring choppy sideways swings before re-test of 107.04, break needed to extend upmove from July’s 104.19 trough to 107.20/30 but 107.53 may hold.
On the downside, only below 106.00/10 would risk weakness to 105.70/80.
Data to be released later on Wednesday :
France consumer confidence, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, durable goods, durables ex-transportation, durables ex-defense.
AceTraderFx Aug 27 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 27 Aug 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.02
Despite dollar’s selloff from Tuesday’s high at 106.57 to 105.81 in Asia today, subsequent rebound suggests pullback has possibly ended, above 106.17/21 would confirm this view and heads back to 106.55/57, where break would extend upmove from August’s 105.11 bottom to 106.80/90.
On the downside, below 105.70/80 would risk weakness to 105.45 before prospect of another gain.
Attention now shifts to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Annual Jackson Hole Symposium at 13:10GMT, where he is scheduled to address the issue of how the central bank will adjust its monetary policy to meet its inflation target. Elsewhere, U.S. will release its GDP at 12:30GMT. Street forecasts for GDP QQ and GDP deflator are -32.5% and -2.0% vs previous readings of -32.9% and -2.1%
AceTraderFx Aug 28 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 28 Aug 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.11
Despite intra-day break of yesterday’s high at 106.70 to 106.94 in Asia, subsequent selloff on active safe-haven jpy buying on news of Japan PM Abe’s planned resignation suggests upmove from August’s 105.11 trough has made a temporary top there and weakness to 105.61, then 105.45 would be seen after consolidation, break needed to head back to 105.11/16…
On the upside, only above 106.55/57 would risk gain to 106.70, then possibly 106.94 again.
There is a slew of U.S. data to be released today but one should pay attention to personal income and personal spending at 12:30GMT. Street forecasts are -0.2% and 1.5% vs previous readings of -1.1% and 5.6% respectively.
AceTraderFx Aug 31 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 31 Aug 202009:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.83
Despite dollar’s selloff from Friday’s 106.94 (Asia) high to 105.21 in New York on news of Prime Minister Abe’s resignation, intra-day strong rebound suggests further choppy trading inside recent 107.04-105.11 broad range would continue and stronger retracement to 105.90/00 may be seen before prospect of another fall.
On the downside, below Asia’s 105.30 low would bring re-test of 105.11, break should head to 104.80/90.
In the absence of major U.S. data today, pay attention to comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who is due to speak at 14:30GMT.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major