AceTraderFx Sept 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Sept 2018 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.91
The greenback’s rally last week and subsequent break of previous resistance at 112.15 to 112.17 Friday suggests upmove from August’s trough at 109.78 has finally resumed and consolidation with upside bias remains for 112.39/40, above would extend marginally.
However, over bought condition would keep price below 112.70/80 today and yield a much-needed correction later.
On the downside, only below 111.12 would indicate near term rise from 110.38 has made a temporary top there instead and risk stronger weakness towards 109.95/00.
Data out later :
UK Rightmove house price, Japan market holiday, Italy trade balance, EU HICP, and U.S. NY Fed manufacturing index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Sept 18: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Sep 2018 09:14 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.93
Despite the greenback’s intra-day rally in Asia to a fresh 7-week peak at 112.28 at European open on Trump’s additional 200 billion worth of tariffs on China, subsequent sharp retreat on news that China will retaliate against these tariffs suggests upmove from August’s trough at 109.78 has made a temporary top there and choppy trading with mild downside bias would be seen.
However, 111.38/40 should remain intact, yield rebound later.
On the upside, only above 112.28 would revive bullishness for gain towards 112.69/70 but over bought condition would keep price below 112.80 and yield correction.
On the eco. data front, U.S. will release some 2nd-tier data starting with Redbook sales n NAHB housing market index.
AceTraderFx Sept 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Sept 2018 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 112.36
The greenback’s rally yesterday to a fresh 7-week peak at 112.39 in New York morning on Trump’s additional 200 billion worth of tariffs on China, then higher to 112.43 today on Bank of Japan’s rate decision suggests upmove from August’s trough at 109.78 remains in progress and further gain towards 112.80 would be seen.
However, over bough condition would keep price below 113.00.
On the downside, only below 111.66 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 111.38/40.
U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data starting with mortgage applications, current account, building permits, housing starts.
AceTraderFx Sept 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Sept 2018 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 112.26
The greenback’s break of Tuesday’s 7-week peak at 112.39 to 112.45 yesterday due partly to comments from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda suggests upmove from August’s trough at 109.78 remains in progress and further gain towards 112.80 would be seen, however, over bough condition would keep price below 113.00.
On the downside, only below 111.66 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 111.38/40.
Economic data out later on Thursday :
Swiss imports, export, trade balance, SNB interest rate decision, UK retail sales, U.S. initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey, existing home sales, leading indicator, Canada ADP employment change, and EU consumer confidence.
Today is the second of the 2-day EU summit meeting in Salzburg, Austria.
AceTraderFx Sept 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Sept 2018 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 112.71
The greenback’s rally above Wednesday’s high at 112.45 to 112.58 yesterday, then intra-day rise above this resistance to 112.87 due partly dollar’s broad-based weakness suggests upmove from August’s trough at 109.78 remains in progress and further gain towards 113.00 would be seen.
However, over bough condition would keep price below daily resistance at 113.17.
On the downside, only below 111.66 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 111.38/40.
U.S. eco. calendar is pretty light today with Markit September mfg and services PMIs being the only 2 data due out at 13:45GMT.
AceTraderFx Sept 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Sept 2018 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 112.47
Despite the greenback’s rally to as high as 112.87 last Friday on dollar’s broad-based strength, subsequent retreat to 112.28 in New Zealand today suggests erratic upmove from August’s trough at 109.78 has made a temporary top there and choppy trading with mild downside bias would be seen.
However, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon support at 112.05 should remain intact, yield rebound later.
On the upside, only above 112.87 would revive bullishness for gain towards daily resistance at 113.17 but over bought condition would keep price below 113.50.
On the data front, today is the Japan market holiday & China market holiday too.
Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, UK CBI industry trends survey.
Canada wholesale sales, and U.S. national activity index, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index data out on Monday.
AceTraderFx Sept 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Sept 2018 10:00 GMT
USD/JPY - 112.65
Despite the greenback’s spike up to 113.13 in New York afternoon yesterday after the Federal Reserve’s rate hike, subsequent selloff to 112.63 in Australia, then to 112.56 in Europe suggests recent upmove from August’s low at 109.78 has made a temporary top there and choppy trading below June’s 6-month peak at 113.17 would continue with downside bias, however, support at 112.28 should remain intact, yield rebound.
On the upside, only above 113.13 would revive bullishness for a re-test of 113.17, break would extend medium-term uptrend towards 113.39/40 later.
Data to be released later on Thursday :
Germany GfK consumer sentiment, CPI, HICP, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, producer prices, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
Canada average weekly earnings, and U.S. durable goods, GDP, PCE, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, pending home sales, KC Fed manufacturing.
AceTraderFx Oct 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Oct 2018 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 113.82
The greenback’s rise above last Friday’s high at 113.67 to a fresh 10-1/2-month peak at 114.06 on dollar’s broad-based strength, then higher in Europe suggests medium-term uptrend remains in progress and further gain towards 114.20/25 would be seen after consolidation.
However, over bought condition would keep price below 114.50/53, yield correction later this week.
On the downside, only below 112.90 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 112.56 before prospect of a rebound.
Data being to release later on Tuesday:
UK Markit construction PMI, EU producer prices, and U.S. Redbook, ISM New York Index.
AceTraderFx Oct 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Oct 2018 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 113.89
The greenback’s rise above last Friday’s high at 113.67 to a fresh 10-1/2-month peak at 114.06 on Monday on dollar’s broad-based strength suggests medium-term uptrend remains in progress and further gain towards 114.20/25 would be seen after consolidation.
However, over bought condition would keep price below 114.50/53, yield correction later this week.
On the downside, only below 112.90 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 112.56 before prospect of a rebound.
Data due out later on Wednesday :
Germany market holiday, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, ADP employment change, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI.
AceTraderFx Oct 05: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Oct 2018 10:00 GMT
USD/JPY - 113.81
Despite The greenback’s rise above Monday’s 10-1/2 month peak at 114.06 to 114.55 yesterday on dollar’s broad-based strength, subsequent selloff to 113.63 the same day on fall in U.S. equities suggests medium-term uptrend has made a temporary top there and choppy trading with mild downside bias would be seen, however, 113.30/32 should remain intact and yield rebound.
On the upside, only above 114.55 would revive bullishness for gain towards 114.70/75, however, 115.00 should hold ahead of U.S. jobs report and yield retreat.
Data to release later on Friday:
Germany industrial orders, producer prices, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, Swiss CPI, UK Halifax house prices, Italy retail sales.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, trade balance, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate, trade balance, exports, imports.
AceTraderFx Oct 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Oct 2018 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 113.74
Although dlr’s rebound from Friday’s post-NFP low at 113.56 suggests first leg of correction from last Thursday’s near 11-month peak at 114.55 has ended, as 113.94 (Asia) has capped intra-day recovery, consolidation with downside bias is retained for stronger retracement to 113.32, loss of momentum should keep price above 113.17.
A daily close above 114.09 would signal pullback is over and would yield another rise back towards 114.55.
Data due out later today:
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany industrial output, EU sentix index, Canada and U.S. market holiday on Monday.
AceTraderFx Oct 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Oct 2018 10:00 GMT
USD/JPY - 113.19
Although the greenback has staged a recovery after yesterday’s selloff to as low as 112.83 and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals recent upmove has made a temporary top at last Thursday’s near 11-month peak at 114.55, downside bias is retained and below 112.83 would yield stronger retracement of medium-term rise towards 112.56/60.
On the upside, only above 113.69 (50% r) would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and turn outlook bullish for stronger gain towards 114.09/10.
On the data front, no important data is due out today except NFIB Nusiness Optimism index for small business, however, we have Dallas Fed President Kaplan speaking at 11:30GMT, Chicago Fed President Evans at 14:00GMT and then Philly Fed President Harker at 17:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Oct 2018 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 113.09
Although the greenback has staged a recovery after Monday’s selloff to as low as 112.83 and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals recent upmove has made a temporary top at last Thursday’s near 11-month peak at 114.55, downside bias is retained and below 112.83 would yield stronger retracement of medium-term rise towards 112.56/60.
On the upside, only above 113.69 (50% r) would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and turn outlook bullish for stronger gain towards 114.09/10.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
France industrial output, Italy industrial output, UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, U.S. PPI, core PPI, redbook, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales and Canada building permits.
AceTraderFx Oct 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Oct 2018 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 112.27
Although price has recovered after intra-day resumption of decline from last week’s near 11-month peak at 114.55 to 111.97 in Asia and minor consolidation would be seen ahead of U.S. inflation release in New York, reckon 112.83 (previous support, now resistance) would cap upside and yield another fall later, below 111.97 would extend to 111.66/70 before prospect of a correction due to loss of momentum.
On the upside, only above 112.83 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 113.39 before prospect of retreat.
Data to be released on Thursday :
UK RICS houseing price balance, Japan domestic CGPI, France CPI, U.S. initial jobless claims, CPI, core CPI, real weekly earnings, and Canada new housing price index.
AceTraderFx Oct 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Oct 2018 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 112.31
Although price has recovered after intra-day resumption of decline from last week’s near 11-month peak at 114.55 to 111.84 yesterday and minor consolidation would be seen ahead of U.S. inflation release in NY, reckon 112.83 (previous support, now resistance) would cap upside and yield another fall later, below 111.84 would extend to 111.66/70 before prospect of a correction due to loss of momentum.
On the upside, only above 112.83 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 113.39 before prospect of retreat.
Data to be released on Friday :
Germany CPI, HICP, EU industrial production, U.S. import prices, export prices and consumer sentiment.
AceTraderFx Oct 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Oct 2018 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 111.68
The greenback’s intra-day break of last Thursday’s 3-week trough at 111.84 signals decline from October’s 11-month peak at 114.55 has once again resumed and further weakness towards 111.40/50 would be seen after consolidation, however, over sold condition would keep price above support at 111.12 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.
On the upside, only above 112.54 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk would increase for a much-needed retracement to 112.83 (previous support, now resistance), then 113.20/30 before down.
Data coming out later:
UK Rightmove house price, Japan industrial production, capacity utilization, Swiss producer/import price, Italy budget deadline, and U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index, retail sales, business inventories on Monday.
AceTraderFx Oct 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Oct 2018 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 112.57
Despite the greenback’s initial fall to 111.63 on Monday, subsequent rally to 112.73 today suggests decline from October’s 11-month peak at 114.55 has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with mild upside bias would be seen for retracement towards 113.09/10.
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 113.39/40 and yield retreat early next week.
On the downside, only below 112.02 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for a re-test of 111.63, break, 111.30/40 later.
On the data front, U.S. will release weekly jobless claims, Philly Fed survey n leading indicator. St. Lousis Fed President Bullard (non-voter) will speak at 13:15GMT and Fed Gov. Quarles (voter) will speak in New York at 16:15GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Oct 2018 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 112.43
Despite the greenback’s initial fall to 111.63 on Monday, subsequent rally to 112.73 yesterday suggests decline from October’s 11-month peak at 114.55 has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with mild upside bias would be seen for retracement towards 113.09/10, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 113.39/40 and yield retreat early next week.
On the downside, only below 112.02 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for a re-test of 111.63, break, 111.30/40 later.
Data to be released later on Friday:
EU current account, UK PSNB, PSNCR, Canada CPI, retail sales, and U.S. existing home sales.
AceTraderFx Oct 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Oct 2018 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 112.73
Although dlr’s intra-day cross-inspired brief break above 112.73 res confirms recent decline from October’s 114.55 peak has made a temporary low last week at 111.63 (Monday) and as long as 112.35 hold, gain to 113.05/10 is likely, o/bot condition should cap price at 113.29/29 and yield decline later this week.
Below 112.35 signals said correction from 111.63 has ended and risks weakness to 11.96/00.
U.S. eco. calendar is very light today with Chicago National Activity index for September being the only data due out, so traders are expected to take cue from intra-day movement in U.S. stocks.
AceTraderFx Oct 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Oct 2018 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 112.31
Despite dollar’s resumption of upmove from last Monday’s 1-month trough at 111.63 to 112.89 yesterday, subsequent retreat and intra-day fall due to safe-haven yen buying on selloff in Asian equities suggests recovery has ended and downside bias remains for weakness towards 111.96, break would extend decline for re-test of 111.63 but 111.38/43 should hold.
On the upside, only above 112.89 would revive bullishness for gain towards 113.05/10, then 113.29/39.
Data to be released later on Tuesday :
Germany PPI, UK CBI orders, U.S. redbook, national activity index and EU consumer confidence.